Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 III


PennMan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Some thoughts on todays developments. Ec has been consistent and has a history that's hard to ignore on sniffing out big storms first. Eps support as well. Ggem is trending west and is also no longer a west outlier with its ensembles as they shifted west today. Nam has a great track for 81 but a compact Ccb. Could be having issues with precip shield as it often does do to its tendency to go crazy with convection. Doubt places in md see 60" like nam prints out lol. Gfs is a little south of where I'd love it but not by much. I do not want to be in the consensus target until inside 36 hours maybe 24. Gfs has a tendency to underplay the stj and struggles with phasing. We saw things trend more amped and a bit north the final 36 hours last Monday and again wed with stj systems. I see no reason this common theme stops here. I am happy with where things are righ now for the lsv and 81 region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some thoughts on todays developments. Ec has been consistent and has a history that's hard to ignore on sniffing out big storms first. Eps support as well. Ggem is trending west and is also no longer a west outlier with its ensembles as they shifted west today. Nam has a great track for 81 but a compact Ccb. Could be having issues with precip shield as it often does do to its tendency to go crazy with convection. Doubt places in md see 60" like nam prints out lol. Gfs is a little south of where I'd love it but not by much. I do not want to be in the consensus target until inside 36 hours maybe 24. Gfs has a tendency to underplay the stj and struggles with phasing. We saw things trend more amped and a bit north the final 36 hours last Monday and again wed with stj systems. I see no reason this common theme stops here. I am happy with where things are righ now for the lsv and 81 region.

 

Great Summary of where we stand at right now. The models don't create the storms, they just show results from calculations.. I would agree that today's trends looked positive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some thoughts on todays developments. Ec has been consistent and has a history that's hard to ignore on sniffing out big storms first. Eps support as well. Ggem is trending west and is also no longer a west outlier with its ensembles as they shifted west today. Nam has a great track for 81 but a compact Ccb. Could be having issues with precip shield as it often does do to its tendency to go crazy with convection. Doubt places in md see 60" like nam prints out lol. Gfs is a little south of where I'd love it but not by much. I do not want to be in the consensus target until inside 36 hours maybe 24. Gfs has a tendency to underplay the stj and struggles with phasing. We saw things trend more amped and a bit north the final 36 hours last Monday and again wed with stj systems. I see no reason this common theme stops here. I am happy with where things are righ now for the lsv and 81 region.

Yeah - and that NW trend wound up being pretty accurate with reality in both events. We've still got 72 hours left on this one and my feelings are a bit more optimistic than they were this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep, posted highlights of Gadomski's commentary a page back. He seems to be favoring the ECM.

Sorry missed that but yeah, they seem pretty excited about this. Fred and Paul had this time period targeted in their 12 day trends segment and they always have had a great track record.

Good post psuhoffman. My thoughts as well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't see it but was told cbs21 Harrisburg calling for foot plus, just watched ABC27, just talked about the storm didn't talk amounts, which I think is smart at this point!

 

Yes. A met for ABC27 tweeted that it was "too soon for anybody to be talking about snow totals." Subtle tweak at CBS perhaps?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EasternUSWX

 

How am I looking here in York? IF the EURO comes true I could see close to 20" which could shut down the campus for 2 days. I would like to see the NAM come in west tonight.

 

Also, 

Do you guys see this thing trending west of where the other models have it? Usually systems like these trend west within the last 36-48 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EasternUSWX

 

How am I looking here in York? IF the EURO comes true I could see close to 20" which could shut down the campus for 2 days. I would like to see the NAM come in west tonight.

 

Also, 

Do you guys see this thing trending west of where the other models have it? Usually systems like these trend west within the last 36-48 hours.

 

Anyone 81 east should get a really good storm. Even up to UNV I think does decent. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...