Anduril Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Down in Georgia, NWS issued this: Linky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Linky? That's from Peachtree City's AFD http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=FFC&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's from Peachtree City's AFD http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=FFC&glossary=1 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Very cool, sounds pretty serious. Hopefully Atlanta is ready for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some thoughts on todays developments. Ec has been consistent and has a history that's hard to ignore on sniffing out big storms first. Eps support as well. Ggem is trending west and is also no longer a west outlier with its ensembles as they shifted west today. Nam has a great track for 81 but a compact Ccb. Could be having issues with precip shield as it often does do to its tendency to go crazy with convection. Doubt places in md see 60" like nam prints out lol. Gfs is a little south of where I'd love it but not by much. I do not want to be in the consensus target until inside 36 hours maybe 24. Gfs has a tendency to underplay the stj and struggles with phasing. We saw things trend more amped and a bit north the final 36 hours last Monday and again wed with stj systems. I see no reason this common theme stops here. I am happy with where things are righ now for the lsv and 81 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone watch weather world? They're onboard for a significant snowstorm for eastern 2/3rds of state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone watch weather world? They're onboard for a significant snowstorm for eastern 2/3rds of state. Yep, posted highlights of Gadomski's commentary a page back. He seems to be favoring the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some thoughts on todays developments. Ec has been consistent and has a history that's hard to ignore on sniffing out big storms first. Eps support as well. Ggem is trending west and is also no longer a west outlier with its ensembles as they shifted west today. Nam has a great track for 81 but a compact Ccb. Could be having issues with precip shield as it often does do to its tendency to go crazy with convection. Doubt places in md see 60" like nam prints out lol. Gfs is a little south of where I'd love it but not by much. I do not want to be in the consensus target until inside 36 hours maybe 24. Gfs has a tendency to underplay the stj and struggles with phasing. We saw things trend more amped and a bit north the final 36 hours last Monday and again wed with stj systems. I see no reason this common theme stops here. I am happy with where things are righ now for the lsv and 81 region. Great Summary of where we stand at right now. The models don't create the storms, they just show results from calculations.. I would agree that today's trends looked positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some thoughts on todays developments. Ec has been consistent and has a history that's hard to ignore on sniffing out big storms first. Eps support as well. Ggem is trending west and is also no longer a west outlier with its ensembles as they shifted west today. Nam has a great track for 81 but a compact Ccb. Could be having issues with precip shield as it often does do to its tendency to go crazy with convection. Doubt places in md see 60" like nam prints out lol. Gfs is a little south of where I'd love it but not by much. I do not want to be in the consensus target until inside 36 hours maybe 24. Gfs has a tendency to underplay the stj and struggles with phasing. We saw things trend more amped and a bit north the final 36 hours last Monday and again wed with stj systems. I see no reason this common theme stops here. I am happy with where things are righ now for the lsv and 81 region. Yeah - and that NW trend wound up being pretty accurate with reality in both events. We've still got 72 hours left on this one and my feelings are a bit more optimistic than they were this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yep, posted highlights of Gadomski's commentary a page back. He seems to be favoring the ECM. Sorry missed that but yeah, they seem pretty excited about this. Fred and Paul had this time period targeted in their 12 day trends segment and they always have had a great track record. Good post psuhoffman. My thoughts as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 "There are several Euro Ensembles which actually have the surface low tracking inland...west of Ocean City Maryland and then back northeast again near or just east of NYC. And by several I mean more than 15." - earthlight Hmmm...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Didn't see it but was told cbs21 Harrisburg calling for foot plus, just watched ABC27, just talked about the storm didn't talk amounts, which I think is smart at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zak seems like a decent map. psuhoffman thanks for sharing your thoughts! They make sense. I think right now we are in a decent spot. Be interesting to see the model trends are tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zak seems like a decent map. psuhoffman thanks for sharing your thoughts! They make sense. I think right now we are in a decent spot. Be interesting to see the model trends are tonight. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the Euro is anywhere near close to being right, the GFS will be greatly embarrassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Didn't see it but was told cbs21 Harrisburg calling for foot plus, just watched ABC27, just talked about the storm didn't talk amounts, which I think is smart at this point! Yes. A met for ABC27 tweeted that it was "too soon for anybody to be talking about snow totals." Subtle tweak at CBS perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the Euro is anywhere near close to being right, the GFS will be greatly embarrassed. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What else is new? Ya but this one would be really bad. lol. GFS 18Z.. 0" here. 12Z EURO 17" here. I see an issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EasternUSWX How am I looking here in York? IF the EURO comes true I could see close to 20" which could shut down the campus for 2 days. I would like to see the NAM come in west tonight. Also, Do you guys see this thing trending west of where the other models have it? Usually systems like these trend west within the last 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EasternUSWX How am I looking here in York? IF the EURO comes true I could see close to 20" which could shut down the campus for 2 days. I would like to see the NAM come in west tonight. Also, Do you guys see this thing trending west of where the other models have it? Usually systems like these trend west within the last 36-48 hours. Anyone 81 east should get a really good storm. Even up to UNV I think does decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would wait until tomorrow's 18z run before writing the GFS off. The northern stream feature will not be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jeeze this place is dead. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jeeze this place is dead. What gives?How many times do you expect us to climax in one day? We must pace ourselves here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you think this forum is dead, you should check out the Philly forum. Last post was at 6:26PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jeeze this place is dead. What gives? No models to track atm and most here on edge with this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No models to track atm and most here on edge with this event... Agreed, true central people are checked out and no runs to see if LSV can cash in until 9ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its still a couple of days out. Every one take a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ctp says no event??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just so everyone knows. There were no real serious injuries on the bus crash yesterday in Bedford County. In a big surprise it was determined that the bus driver was going to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ctp says no event??? Their discussion seemed to hint that the LSV was in pretty good shape for at least an advisory snowfall but not entirely confident yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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