pawatch Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lol GFS says nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Hpc goes with GFS interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGE http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd That disco was garbage. Was like we like GFS/NAM.. but they aren't that good and euro has been consistent. It was like um ok what did I just read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS has been lost from the start with this storm. I respect HPC, but I kind of laughed at them using the GFS after 1 good model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lol GFS says nothing to see here. That's crazy. It went further southeast and basically fringes even SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDTHE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTHNOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ANDTHE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THELOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY14/00Z. So... the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 14/00Z. So... the euro? I don't know that is confusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is in the other forum, NY From the ALY AFD "AND WOULD NOT BE THE LEAST BIT SURPRISED TOSEE MODEL TRENDS FARTHER N AND W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Analog of analogs, lol Here is my fav. I remember that event very well! Of course, back in 1983, the only "true" wx data available was through the 5th and 6th floor of Walker bldg! The place was buzzin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Best case for UNV is get a few inches from the storm and get a couple from the clipper right behind it. Then including yesterday UNV scores 6-8 inches for the whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea this is not going to be a big deal for anyone nw of I 81. Maybe add to totals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Omg you guys are drama queens. In just the past 24 hrs this place has went from jubilation to suicidal and back. Hell, the Euro just brought this place back four hours ago and were back to talking about "the best case scenario being a couple of inches, punting and waiting on the nrxt clipper"? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea this is not going to be a big deal for anyone nw of I 81. Maybe add to totals though. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea this is not going to be a big deal for anyone nw of I 81. Maybe add to totals though. You cannot say this at this point. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Based on what? Based on nothing. Just typical trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS apparently actually has a NAM-like solution but it doesn't complete dig that northern stream, which makes it shove off far to the east. IIRC it's the only model that isn't getting the northern stream involved earlier, which I'm guessing makes it an outlier at this point on that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea this is not going to be a big deal for anyone nw of I 81. Maybe add to totals though. Promet mark elinwood disagrees, and has the axis of heaviest snow straddling I-81. Sorry, I will take his word over yours. Yesterday you declared the clipper a "flurry alert" before it started, yet I see a couple area in your county got 1-2 inches. You do this on literally every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea this is not going to be a big deal for anyone nw of I 81. Maybe add to totals though. I wouldn't say that yet. Omg you guys are drama queens. In just the past 24 hrs this place has went from jubilation to suicidal and back. Hell, the Euro just brought this place back four hours ago and were back to talking about "the best case scenario being a couple of inches, punting and waiting on the nrxt clipper"? Wow. Eh. Shouldn't have said "best". More like realistic. I personally haven't punted on the storm. I just don't go into every storm super pumped. If the storm doesn't trend favorably, then it's not bitterly disappointing then for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I obviously should have said IPT to UNV. LSV should watch this very carefully for a large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Down in Georgia, NWS issued this: "THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IN 10-20 YEARS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's funny how we need, finally really need a northern trend, people act as if it hasnt happened at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I obviously should have said IPT to UNV. LSV should watch this very carefully for a large storm. I think you should be five posted lol. This is nonsense to continuously say "this isn't happening" and "that isn't happening" based upon nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Promet mark elinwood disagrees, and has the axis of heaviest snow straddling I-81. Sorry, I will take his word over yours. Yesterday you declared the clipper a "flurry alert" before it started, yet I see a couple area in your county got 1-2 inches. You do this on literally every storm. .6 inches imby and we had issues with the last clipper. I'm done posting until Tuesday night bc emotions are high in here it seems. I was just agreeing with laurel on happy to add to our nice total up here. Proceed back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's funny how we need, finally really need a northern trend, people act as if it hasnt happened at all. Let's be honest, when has it happened on events like these? As much as I think Wmspt is getting a little ahead of himself with the ECM/GGEM being so far W, the big ones have tended to be not-so-big-deals in the northwest the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 First thought map combining EURO/GGEM/UKMET/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gadomski on Weather World: -Models still fighting -Significant storm threat for eastern 2/3rds - says snow, heavy at times for east and central, periods of mixing southeast, not much northwest (e.g. Erie) -Favoring European I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I obviously should have said IPT to UNV. LSV should watch this very carefully for a large storm. That is a massive difference from what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Horst said GFS won't catch on till SW is sampled and that might not be till tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice map Zak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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