djr5001 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA325 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-112030-WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-325 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO THEATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL ANDSOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ISPOSSIBLE OVER LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THEUPPER MIDWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Philly now has watches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM getting there, but precip shield still likely off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Gorgeous look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think some said that precip. shield could be legit given the GL low behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Article in Lancaster paper today about the facebook forcasters that hyped last weeks storm and others. I'm not saying this coming storm is hype. http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/how-rumors-of-a-monster-blizzard-got-started-last-week/article_b8e3ba8e-920c-11e3-9d06-001a4bcf6878.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The nam has most of York and Lancaster with one inch plus with qpf. Sharp cut off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think some said that precip. shield could be legit given the GL low behind it. It will expand. Euro and GGEM on the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM has the perfect SLP track for an 81 crusher...just has some weird convective issue with the precip, pulls it in way tighter then history would suggest with that track. I would say total nonsense that a lot tracks that tucked in and does not get the CCB back into MDT area but we have seen it a few times lately so it makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro ensemble mean looks like the Op, just a hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0Z will bring shield back another 75 miles at least is my bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mt. Holly FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 My guess is I 81 border counties have watches and the rest get HWO when it happens. Still A LOT of uncertainty though, for just about everyone here. Looks like they are playing wait and see, which is fine for now. Still plenty of time to review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lot of the pros on the N** forum are in agreement that the ECM is too far west. Hope they're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lot of the pros on the N** forum are in agreement that the ECM is too far west. Hope they're wrong. Honestly, probably mid point between GFS and Euro is correct. GFS will come west, Euro will probably bump east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lot of the pros on the N** forum are in agreement that the ECM is too far west. Hope they're wrong. Euro indies are in and I can see why the mean is so tucked into the NJ coast. Some are absolutely insane for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lot of the pros on the N** forum are in agreement that the ECM is too far west. Hope they're wrong. May be a tiny bit west, but Nam low placement is not too far off. Precip will come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I want this to run up i95, nuke central and western pa, aisnd give dc to Boston rain. The way they complain after what has been a good winter outside of dc makes me vindictive towards them. with a track like that it could get DC good...but rain on Philly to Boston and thats ok they deserve some love this year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 May be a tiny bit west, but Nam low placement is not too far off. Precip will come west. The GFS being substantially east doesn't concern you? Yes, the GFS sucks but they've all struggled this year to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS being substantially east doesn't concern you? Yes, the GFS sucks but they've all struggled this year to a degree. Nope. It has been coming west. It struggles with stuff like this. I suspect a full on collapse by 18 or 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am Not worried about a sharp cutoff at least around Harrisburg. Ctp yes. Bill town yeah, and Wilkes barre Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 From the Mid Atlantic forum: I still think the euro is more right and agree, it's the nam, the nam runs cold and it's the nam at longer time ranges. When Wes speaks, I listen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here is the analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here is the analog. "Median snowfall based on Top 15 Analogs" So, not an actual analog, but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 "Median snowfall based on Top 15 Analogs" So, not an actual analog, but interesting nonetheless. Analog of analogs, lol Here is my fav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nope. It has been coming west. It struggles with stuff like this. I suspect a full on collapse by 18 or 0Z. Interesting, always appreciate your thoughts. Time will tell - 0z is huge. Might have to stay up for the Euro run. We're supposed to have a board meeting that's pretty big for some announcements Thursday morning, we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anybody have a timeframe when this may start for LSV. Travel plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 From the Mid Atlantic forum: When Wes speaks, I listen! Agree on Wes. Which model usually does best with these type of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man the GFS is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 LOL @ the 33" and 40" of snow on the Cobb readouts for Philly and DC respectively. If even 1/3 of that happened it would be a very major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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