MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 the evolution of the storm next week on the GFS is very similar (more so at H5 then the surface) to the Feb 1972 storm. That has been showing up as a top analog the last few days as well. The lakes low was a bit more dominant then phased in completely in 1972 compared to what the GFS shows now, but its a very close match in terms of the overall setup and evolution. It's very close to something big for our area. Most of the time when it looks perfect at day 7 it turns to crap, I would rather a setup that looks ok but flawed and hope as it evolves like we all know it will....that it changes in our favor this time. This!!! I really don't like being in the bulls eye or starring down the evolution of a "perfect" storm at this range. I do on the other hand like to see the right pieces of the puzzle on the table before it comes together, which this run does to a degree. Thanks for also pointing out that analog year and time as well. I very rarely ever get to find out analog packages because I don't have the type of resources that I can view them. Plus I've been busy with last 2 storms and school, so it's tough to get really analytic on anything when time is not in your favor. I'll look that storm up when I have time. Very interesting information and is much appreciated. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here is a snow map for the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The GFS has a nice storm for SEPA and Northward for Valentines day still. Interesting evolution of how it came to fruition with a low placed into the Great Lakes during the same time period. Talk about threading a needle! This period has a muchhhh better chance of yielding a storm than the weekend, much to the kin of what you hear from Facebook experts . The problem with the run I see will be a low moving into the lakes and a departing High pressure system. I expect all models to be bouncing off their insane asylum walls before coming out of their shells to yield a solution, so best to just remain steadfast and watch the 500 mb evolution of the upcoming pattern next 3-4 days. I'm sure most already knew this, but you can never be so sure. OT: I wonder how many emails Al Roker will have in his email box on Monday morning? From the looks of this run I would think it would be a heart breaker for many sitting fairly far in on the cold side of the 850 expecting snow. That set up has boundary layer issues written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That storm next week (per GFS) is a slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hahah nice eastern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here is a snow map for the weekend storm. I assume this implies whiteout conditions across the country I like it. Bring it on. If not, then it looks pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro at 156. sigh.. lol Weekend 3FT delayed to Wed night. haha. JK not 3FT but heavy snow none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12z euro has two light snowfall events for the weekend. It also has a bigger storm for Wednesday-Thursday of next week. It looks like most of pa would do well with snowfall if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12z euro has two light snowfall events for the weekend. It also has a bigger storm for Wednesday-Thursday of next week. It looks like most of pa would do well with snowfall if the euro is right. Why.... lol. Stop teasing me models with these day 6-7 storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That sun is doing a number on the ice. Sounds like its raining out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I assume this implies whiteout conditions across the country I like it. Bring it on. If not, then it looks pretty boring. That's why i am going to share it on FB and convince everyone Mexico will get a snowstorm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That's why i am going to share it on FB and convince everyone Mexico will get a snowstorm this weekend. At this point, the only unbelievable part of that map getting snow in Washington, D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 At this point, the only unbelievable part of that map getting snow in Washington, D.C. OUCH!!! but so true! I would be remiss without saying that perhaps all the hot air generated locally overcomes all other weather factors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Haha, you think CTP has fielded the "how many feet should we expect this weekend?" question a few times? WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WILL NEED TO BERESOLVED...THE SCREAMING MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE **PERIODS OFLIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND** WITH **MINOR ACCUMULATIONS** INOVER A 36-48HR PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Our buddies over at S&S posted the Canadian that shows a ton of snow. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Haha, you think CTP has fielded the "how many feet should we expect this weekend?" question a few times? Maybe I missed something but why are people expecting that much snow this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe I missed something but why are people expecting that much snow this weekend?Because word of mouth has replaced meteorologists for the most common source of weather info. Thank you facebook and Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 My brother in law asked me if we were gonna get 1-2 feet this weekend as well. He heard it from a few guys at work. I told him NO & even if we were getting a big storm no-one would know how much this far out anyway. The general public thinks people can forecast the exact amount of snow a week away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 At this point, the only unbelievable part of that map getting snow in Washington, D.C. Poor DC. They hate us so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe I missed something but why are people expecting that much snow this weekend? Al Roker was one of the reasons. Earlier in the week he was saying we could be measuring the snow in feet this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Al Roker was one of the reasons. Earlier in the week he was saying we could be measuring the snow in feet this weekend. He wasn't exactly incorrect, but his use of the word "could" morphed into "would." It was never forecast but the possibility did exist should complete phasing occur at exactly the right time. When making statements like that, it's imperative to also communicate the extremely slim chances that go along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe I missed something but why are people expecting that much snow this weekend? Likely stemming from folks taking the day 8-9 weenie maps to social media when models were advertising that big weekend storm a few days ago when we were already dealing with the two imminent storms striking less than two days apart. It really is amazing how it's spread. My dad made the mistake of asking me this just 20 minutes ago. We might sneak a light snowfall rolling through this weekend but it looks like the Feb 13-14th period is more promising currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ice still on the trees and power lines in the hills south of Strasburg, Lancaster County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Likely stemming from folks taking the day 8-9 weenie maps to social media when models were advertising that big weekend storm a few days ago when we were already dealing with the two imminent storms striking less than two days apart. It really is amazing how it's spread. My dad made the mistake of asking me this just 20 minutes ago. We might sneak a light snowfall rolling through this weekend but it looks like the Feb 13-14th period is more promising currently. I heard this guy's brother's cousin's uncle's father's grandmother's beautician's butcher's plumber's hot yoga instructor's fishmonger's driver's babysitter's homeopathic healer's organic farmer's custom gun cabinet maker's personal shopper's neighbor said on Facebook and it was RT'd on Twitter that we're going to be get three feet of snow this weekend. But you know how it is, weather forecasts are never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This snow pack on the ground is something else. You could legitimately make an igloo with this stuff. Here's a section off the freezing rain encased sleet layer. It's nearly an inch and a half thick and theres some parts of the yard that I can walk on and not break through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Mag, Same here. I can walk on top most of the snow. My Saint Bernard can walk on top as well which is saying a lot for a 130lb dog. I'm currently melting a snow core sample. I'd bet this 4" pack has a 2" water equiv. On a side note, my golf course had roughly 180 limbs snapped off from the Monday / Wednesday combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 And this stuff does not want to melt even inside. Still have a bucket of it that only melted by half from yesterday. Gave up on using snow for water and got the free water they are giving out around here. And yea still no power. Getting my moneys worth out of my generator. alot in the are in other places for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gonna be awhile before all this snow melts around the area. You can actually hurt or injure your foot kicking the stuff. The worst is the stuff in the parking lots caked to the road. That stuff has become speed bumps. I had the displeasure of having to chip the stuff behind the wheels of my car today because my car couldn't find traction to get out of the spot. The worst part is when you do leave, someone will just take the spot once you pull out. I guess that's the price you pay for living in a dorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Mag, Same here. I can walk on top most of the snow. My Saint Bernard can walk on top as well which is saying a lot for a 130lb dog. I'm currently melting a snow core sample. I'd bet this 4" pack has a 2" water equiv. On a side note, my golf course had roughly 180 limbs snapped off from the Monday / Wednesday combo. From the storm yesterday. I have a stratus snow gauge....we had 7" of snow here. The snow melted to .83". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 From the storm yesterday. I have a stratus snow gauge....we had 7" of snow here. The snow melted to .83". I had 1.04" precip from Monday's storm and 1.39" precip from the last storm for a 3 day total of 2.43". My average snow depth is 4". My melted snow core came to 1.00" on the button. I would have thought there would have been more moisture in the snow. I'll try it again from a different location tomorrow and see what I come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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