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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 III


PennMan

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Notice how the NAM/GFS bomb out and really wrap the system up, thus the precip field is in a smaller but more robust field.  The EURO/UKMET/Canadian, which has been consistent IMO, is not as wrapped up and therefore produces a more westward snow shield.  It's a good 7" - 10" from I-78/I-81 to the Turnpike, then 10" - 13" from the Turnpike south.

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Notice how the NAM/GFS bomb out and really wrap the system up, thus the precip field is in a smaller but more robust field.  The EURO/UKMET/Canadian, which has been consistent IMO, is not as wrapped up and therefore produces a more westward snow shield.  It's a good 7" - 10" from I-78/I-81 to the Turnpike, then 10" - 13" from the Turnpike south.

I'm guessing we get a moderate hit on the UK/CMC then (3-6")?

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Great Lakes low continues to remain relatively weak as well on GEFS

 

edit: I guess that doesnt really mean a whole lot with it being an ensemble mean

True.

 

Yeah im in OSHA safety training all day and i am trying to sneak peeks, i have no idea what is going on, hard to read theough this

Bottom line:

 

  1. Storm still alive and well.  
  2. Good potential someone gets double digits, but a sharp northwest edge.
  3. Start time will be overnight Wednesday -> Thursday so we get a good base down before sunrise.
  4. The next 12 hours will be key as northern stream energy gets over dense observation network.
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True.

 

Bottom line:

 

  1. Storm still alive and well.  
  2. Good potential someone gets double digits, but a sharp northwest edge.
  3. Start time will be overnight Wednesday -> Thursday so we get a good base down before sunrise.
  4. The next 12 hours will be key as northern stream energy gets over dense observation network.

 

By this do you mean the low that ends up in the GL kicking the storm east? Those looking for a further west track are hoping to see that slower and weaker.

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By this do you mean the low that ends up in the GL kicking the storm east? Those looking for a further west track are hoping to see that slower and weaker.

he means the energy will be moving over and area of land where the data collected from around there by way of balloon launches/observations/etc gets ingested into the 0 and 12z model runs so we may see the models then begin to get a better handle on how things will play out over the next few days

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True.

 

Bottom line:

 

  1. Storm still alive and well.  
  2. Good potential someone gets double digits, but a sharp northwest edge.
  3. Start time will be overnight Wednesday -> Thursday so we get a good base down before sunrise.
  4. The next 12 hours will be key as northern stream energy gets over dense observation network.

 

  For those of us who fall well below the amateur rank in understanding models, would you consider doing more frequent 'Bottom Line' udates?

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