Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lol usually a tucked in low just south of Delmarva is be very happy but there is prbly a tight precip gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Who the heck is comparing this to March '93?! I have heard from many people that this is supposed to be like 93. As some of the others posted, I may have the 96 and 93 storm mixed up. fwiw, both were massive storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldn't feel too comfortable being in NAM"s bullseye at hr. 84 Not comfortable with it's amounts, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 to me it looks like it would get kicked out around h84 and beyond with a 992 low over northern minnesota/wisconsin This is what's going to keep the storm from being a heavy hitter in much of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 But where does it go at hr84 and beyond? Does it head northeast toward the BM, giving central PA a fringe job, or does it hug and give us a good showing? 996 mb off Cape May, NJ. Eastern 2/3rds of PA almost always gets snow with this type of setup. No way the precip is that confined. He has a source that gets it a bit sooner. What source do you use, Eskimo? InstantWeatherMaps.com Precip field doesn't extend much past philly. Don't read into the precip field, that usually lags by about 20 minutes when the models run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That fooking GL Low again. Just a total killjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 996 mb off Cape May, NJ. Eastern 2/3rds of PA almost always gets snow with this type of setup. No way the precip is that confined. Thanks. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. That fooking GL Low again. Just a total killjoy. Seems to always be present when we have a chance at a good Miller A type storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That fooking GL Low again. Just a total killjoy. Yup, it's likely going to try to prevent this from being a major player for a good chunk of this region. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No real way to change that either,that's the frustrating part lol. GL low is modeled in just about everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone who has access - what did the 0z ECM have for that lakes system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Precip field doesn't extend much past philly. when the upper level low closes off it really sucks in the dry air between this system and the GL low so if legit yea it will keep the precip field from extending too far westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 when the upper level low closes off it really sucks in the dry air between this system and the GL low so if legit yea it will keep the precip field from extending too far westward Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A 50 mile shift on this thing in either direction, certainly not out of the questions, is huge. Ideally would be 100 mile west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 when the upper level low closes off it really sucks in the dry air between this system and the GL low so if legit yea it will keep the precip field from extending too far westward There will be a very tight western edge to this system, although with a storm taking that track per the NAM, the QPF shield is suspiciously lacking west of the CCB. While the Mid-Atlantic folks celebrate, they are still bullseye with 72 hours out. Not where you want to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There will be a very tight western edge to this system, although with a storm taking that track per the NAM, the QPF shield is suspiciously lacking west of the CCB. While the Mid-Atlantic folks celebrate, they are still bullseye with 72 hours out. Not where you want to be It will change every run leading into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It will change every run leading into the event. I like where I am on this. I hate to bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I suppose I would rather be on the outside on the "long-range" NAM, but...I just can't get excited with how many times this setup has screwed us in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone who has access - what did the 0z ECM have for that lakes system? to me it looks to be a little bit weaker on the 0z Euro than the 0 and 12z NAM and track maybe slightly further south... not sure how much of an impact the slight differences make between the two models right now Please tell me why I liked DT on Facebook he literally loves everyone model that shows him snow! Gosh even the 84 hr NAM time to dislike him he is unreal. DT really does know his stuff... he is spot on if there is a legit threat to the Richmond area or if discussing something not looking to happen in virginia... if models have a fantasy event (like this run of the NAM could possibly be) for that area he will over hype and change his forecasts last minute if it does not pan out... just the way he is with his main clients in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The SW over the Great Lakes region may have to do with the extreme precip cutoff that the NAM/SREF are showing. That feature really needs to calm down. Usually with this setup the LSV area would be getting demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It will change every run leading into the event. This is why - I'll get killed for this - I think models should all be behind paywalls available to credentialed peeps. Any idiot can read a model (not disrespecting anyone here, no one here is an idiot ... well maybe that one York guy) but it's all modelogy now and not meteorology and it's costing real mets scorn in the public eye. It sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is why - I'll get killed for this - I think models should all be behind paywalls available to credentialed peeps. Any idiot can read a model (not disrespecting anyone here, no one here is an idiot ... well maybe that one York guy) but it's all modelogy now and not meteorology and it's costing real mets scorn in the public eye. It sucks. This is a good point, these Facebook posts with a random model run have made things way worse with the public than it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 fwiw it looks like there is a warm layer around 925mb that would cause p-type issues along i-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is why - I'll get killed for this - I think models should all be behind paywalls available to credentialed peeps. Any idiot can read a model (not disrespecting anyone here, no one here is an idiot ... well maybe that one York guy) but it's all modelogy now and not meteorology and it's costing real mets scorn in the public eye. It sucks. I agree. Even most hobbyists, myself included, lack the knowledge to do much more than regurgitate model data verbatim and it seems that some people don't know what they don't know and end up looking foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good to see the MA/NYC/NE folks creaming over being bullseyed on the 84 hour NAM Can't wait to see what it shows this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I tend to avoid NYC forums, ESP since I saw posts complaining about 16 inches of snow in a storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eric Horst: "This pattern is loaded. I expect at least 2 measurable snows in the next 10 days. Snow lovers rejoice!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eric Horst: "This pattern is loaded. I expect at least 2 measurable snows in the next 10 days. Snow lovers rejoice!" When Mr. Horst barks, LSVers will be wise to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good to see the MA/NYC/NE folks creaming over being bullseyed on the 84 hour NAM Can't wait to see what it shows this time tomorrow. hopefully a shift west so we can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When Mr. Horst barks, LSVers will be wise to listen. That is why it is best to listen to the pros like Mr. Horst and not the whiners . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I tend to avoid NYC forums, ESP since I saw posts complaining about 16 inches of snow in a storm lol. We are a "special" breed. HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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