donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 With 4.0" snowfall this morning, New York City reached 40.0" seasonal snowfall for the first time since winter 2010-11. Snowfall through this morning has amounted to 40.3". Both the earlier snowfalls that distinguished the beginning of the season and the early date on which NYC reached 40" snowfall strongly argue that NYC will likely reach or exceed 50" seasonal snowfall for winter 2013-14. Below is a chart showing the percentage of cases that NYC reached various snowfall thresholds when December saw Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston reach 8" or more monthly snowfall and additional snowfall fell by January 10. Below is a chart showing the winters when NYC reached 40" seasonal snowfall by February 5 or earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hmm, then don't post then. This is the NYC metro subforum. Yay! NYC got to 40" of this season. How often does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yay! NYC got to 40" of this season. How often does that happen? Well, if you would have read Don's post, apparently not that often this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yay! NYC got to 40" of this season. How often does that happen? This is only the 7th time it has reached 40" this early since winter 1869-70 (145 cases). That's about a once-in-21-year event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I thought this was interesting. This is only through October so Central Park has added 3 more in the past month and now has more this decade than the 70s and 80s as a whole Warning Criteria Snowstorms (6 inches or more) by decade at Central Park 1869 to Present Decade Numer of Times of Occurrence 1869 3 1870's 14 1880's 8 1890's 21 1900's 20 1910's 13 1920's 14 1930's 11 1940's 12 1950's 8 1960's 16 1970's 6 1980's 5 1990's 11 2000's 13 2010's 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't want to jinx this but if NYC gets 4.7" of snow next weekend it would make the 30-30 club... 30" in 30 days...The short list...02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0"02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2"12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4"01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1"01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2"02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8"12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2"01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2"01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't want to jinx this but if NYC gets 4.7" of snow next weekend it would make the 30-30 club... 30" in 30 days... The short list... 02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0" 02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2" 12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4" 01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1" 01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2" 02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8" 12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2" 01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2" 01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" The increased frequency of this is somewhat alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Below is a chart showing the winters when NYC reached 40" seasonal snowfall by February 5 or earlier: good numbers. if this was a stock market analysis, you'd definitely say the market is going higher. 40" by feb 5th is huge and certainly sets the table for a historically significant snow season. i've always considered 50" the gold standard. i'm about 25 miles south of the city and didnt see a single flake. 38" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't want to jinx this but if NYC gets 4.7" of snow next weekend it would make the 30-30 club... 30" in 30 days... The short list... 02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0" 02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2" 12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4" 01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1" 01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2" 02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8" 12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2" 01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2" 01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6" Actually it has all the way to the 20th to achieve that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 good numbers. if this was a stock market analysis, you'd definitely say the market is going higher. 40" by feb 5th is huge and certainly sets the table for a historically significant snow season. i've always considered 50" the gold standard. i'm about 25 miles south of the city and didnt see a single flake. 38" so far. There was a terrible cutoff. Hopefully, the next event will be better for all. Even as litlte as 25 miles north of NYC, amounts were 8" or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 good numbers. if this was a stock market analysis, you'd definitely say the market is going higher. 40" by feb 5th is huge and certainly sets the table for a historically significant snow season. i've always considered 50" the gold standard. i'm about 25 miles south of the city and didnt see a single flake. 38" so far. we managed 2-3 in Woodbridge early on but it changed quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is only the 7th time it has reached 40" this early since winter 1869-70 (145 cases). That's about a once-in-21-year event.This is the 34th time NYC hit 40" for the season. 9/34 (26%) have occurred in the last 20 years. In fact, from 1967-68 through 1992-93 (26 years), it only happened one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 .2" of sleet and .2 of ZR here. I really don't care about that, happens to everyone everywhere almost every winter. I'm really happy NYC made 40." Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 February will likely end up much above normal in the snow department (if not already!!). Then we need to think about March. The fact that the QBO is the way it is, north atlantic blocking is favored in the 2nd half of winter. I doubt cold anomalies will be as notable once we lose the -EPO, but with a favorable atlantic and PNA spikes occurring, my guess is that the Feb 15th-March 15th period will also end up above normal snow. Temps will likely be close to normal during this period but it wouldn't surprise me if we got another MECS and/or several (1-3) SECS before the winter is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Does anyone think NYC can make a run at the snowiest winter on record? If this pattern keeps up it could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Does anyone think NYC can make a run at the snowiest winter on record? If this pattern keeps up it could be possible.Anything is possible, but we need another 35". That's hard enough for an entire winter, nevermind the last 6-8 weeks of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Does anyone think NYC can make a run at the snowiest winter on record? If this pattern keeps up it could be possible. One would think that record is very tough to beat but it's def not impossible since we are only in early Feb. Keep in mind the record is 75.6". They need 35.3 more inches...which is a lot and 8.4 " more than our seasonal average of 26.9" It's highly unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Does anyone think NYC can make a run at the snowiest winter on record? If this pattern keeps up it could be possible. A MECS/HECS would help. I'm not sure even having a bunch of moderate events would be enough. I know 50" is nearly a lock and there's a decent shot at 60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anything is possible, but we need another 35". That's hard enough for an entire winter, nevermind the last 6-8 weeks of snow. The fictitious 30 incher for this coming weekend would have put KNYC in striking distance. I think model fantasy storms should count in the season totals. I also think actual snowfall should not be counted if there was no warning issued. That makes a lot of sense; why else would so many noses get bent out of shape when the NWS doesn't issue a warning for their backyards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 One would think that record is very tough to beat but it's def not impossible since we are only in early Feb. Keep in mind the record is 75.6". They need 35.3 more inches...which is a lot and 8.4 " more than our seasonal average of 26.9" It's highly unlikely though.It would also mean that the Feb-Apr total is 47"+, which is unheard of. I'll check my spreadsheets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It would also mean that the Feb-Apr total is 47"+, which is unheard of. I'll check my spreadsheets. To be fair, >75.6" is also unheard of. Something has to give for that record to be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We also reached 40" at my house in Metuchen, today, with the 2" of sleet we got. Most interesting thing today was 2" sleet (about 6" LE), followed by about 0.5" ZR, which was completely absorbed into the snowpack, such that the 2" of slush I shoveled had about 10-11" liquid equivalent - now that's a tough shoveling - my back is killing me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 To be fair, >75.6" is also unheard of. Something has to give for that record to be broken.True, but I think it would take more of a blockbuster December than what we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 isnt the 2010s higher than 5? jan 12 2011, jan 26 2011, feb 2013, 3 so far this season right? at least 6? plus box day so at least 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Does anyone think NYC can make a run at the snowiest winter on record? If this pattern keeps up it could be possible. Here is how I would break down the possibilities for NYC: 45" winter: 99% chance 50" winter: 83% chance 55" winter: 74% chance 60" winter: 66% chance 65" winter: 38% chance 70" winter: 21% chance >75" winter: 16% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Does anyone think NYC can make a run at the snowiest winter on record? If this pattern keeps up it could be possible. Possible. NYC would have beaten the record in 2010-2011if the pattern didn't change in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think the record was in 1995/96 like 70 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think the record was in 1995/96 like 70 inches or so 75.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Possible. NYC would have beaten the record in 2010-2011if the pattern didn't change in February.And if my grandmother had balls she'd be my grandfather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 isnt the 2010s higher than 5? jan 12 2011, jan 26 2011, feb 2013, 3 so far this season right? at least 6? plus box day so at least 7?With 2010, it's 9. Without, it's 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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