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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS OBSERVED ON AREA RADARS…NOTE KBUF RADAR REMAINS INOPERABLE…AND SURFACE OBS LATE THIS MORNING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS IS @SSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND SSEO ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THIS WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK 15-19Z AND CENTRAL NEW YORK 18-21Z. WHILE WE ONLY SAW 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE FRONT END OF THE STORM THIS MORNING…BETTER DYNAMICS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR BETTER SNOW PRODUCTION WITHIN THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CROSSING OUR REGION FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 18:1 SHOULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR CENTERED AROUND NOONTIME.

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