Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 -30 at UW and -27 at YKF @ 6am Another frosty morning here - 26C That station near Ridgeway Fort Erie is currently reporting -27C, i'm literally 5 mins away and sitting here at -20C. Urban heat FTL? I bottomed out at -18.5c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Winds kept us warmer downtown last night. Hit -17.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It'll be interesting to see as the ridge moves off to the east and the winds come out of the east or southeast whether we can get a shallow band of LES to come onshore somewhere between Toronto and Oshawa. Delta ts at least initially will be extreme for an E wind event (~20c) but inversion heights are going to be quite low. Still, I've seen some very shallow LES drop a surprise several cms in these types of setups before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 We were so close to -30! Lots of records broken overnight. NEW RECORD LOWS ARE FOUND IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW.IN THE SECOND TABLE BELOW ARE A FEW MORE FRIGID MINIMUM TEMPERATURESTHAT LIKELY WOULD HAVE BEEN NEW RECORD LOWS, BUT DATA FROM SOMEPREVIOUS YEARS IS NOT AVAILABLE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE UNIVERSITYOF WATERLOO WAS VERY, VERY CLOSE TO SETTING A NEW RECORD LATESTOBSERVED OCCURRENCE OF MINUS 30 C IN WATERLOO REGION.LOCATION NEW RECORD LOWWINDSOR AIRPORT -18.0 BREAKING OLD RECORD -16.3 FROM 1994RIDGETOWN -21.1 BREAKING OLD RECORD -20.7 FROM 2008WIARTON -22.5 BREAKING OLD RECORD -21.0 FROM 1980LONDON -26.8 BREAKING OLD RECORD -23.9 FROM 1879DELHI -23.5 BREAKING OLD RECORD -23.0 FROM 1994KITCHENER -27.3 BREAKING OLD RECORD -22.0 FROM 1980GUELPH -28.1 BREAKING OLD RECORD -23.3 FROM 1993HAMILTON -22.5 BREAKING OLD RECORD -20.6 FROM 1884MUSKOKA -32.8 BREAKING OLD RECORD -30.7 FROM 2006LOCATION VERY COLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO NOTEELORA -29.4UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO -29.9MOUNT FOREST -27.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It'll be interesting to see as the ridge moves off to the east and the winds come out of the east or southeast whether we can get a shallow band of LES to come onshore somewhere between Toronto and Oshawa. Delta ts at least initially will be extreme for an E wind event (~20c) but inversion heights are going to be quite low. Still, I've seen some very shallow LES drop a surprise several cms in these types of setups before. Thats a really interesting point. HRRR forecasts are showing a strong enough low level SE flow developing this evening and continuing through the overnight. The inversion is extremely low, however, as you mentioned. There is virtually no cooling of the coloumn until ~600mb on RAP soundings and theres some BL saturation problems, at least initially. Not sure i want to bite on the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thats a really interesting point. HRRR forecasts are showing a strong enough low level SE flow developing this evening and continuing through the overnight. The inversion is extremely low, however, as you mentioned. There is virtually no cooling of the coloumn until ~600mb on RAP soundings and theres some BL saturation problems, at least initially. Not sure i want to bite on the potential. Was a bit of a finger band over the lake earlier but it appears to have fizzled. I think the inhospitable inversion heights are going to rule the day. Oh well. Hopefully we get our refresher snows late tomorrow/tomorrow night. RGEM looks bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Was a bit of a finger band over the lake earlier but it appears to have fizzled. I think the inhospitable inversion heights are going to rule the day. Oh well. Hopefully we get our refresher snows late tomorrow/tomorrow night. RGEM looks bullish. Here's the latest RGEM. Shows a general 5-10cm (2-4") in the GTA. I believe the 18z Nam and SREF plumes showed similar amounts. However, global models aren't as bullish and keep amounts < 5cm for the most part. With this pattern refusing to budge, 5cm would be a nice refresher. Thermals and heights IMO aren't supportive of any decent LES formation off Lake Ontario. Our best bet is the wave coming tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Was a bit of a finger band over the lake earlier but it appears to have fizzled. I think the inhospitable inversion heights are going to rule the day. Oh well. Hopefully we get our refresher snows late tomorrow/tomorrow night. RGEM looks bullish. The NAM, SREF and its hires suite are looking nice as well. Could be in for a decent 2-4" refresher if the hires models do better then the globals which I think they will. They tend to do better with the position of mesoscale banding, especially in a more dynamic setup like this. With a southern branch feature, its also common for the edge of the defo band to drift further NW then expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 BTW, I noticed chris scott tweeted that this winter (Dec 1-Feb 28th period) is officially the coldest in 20 years for YYZ and YOW. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 BTW, I noticed chris scott tweeted that this winter (Dec 1-Feb 28th period) is officially the coldest in 20 years for YYZ and YOW. Pretty impressive. And I wouldn't be surprised if March ends up below normal as well. The MJO and continuing -EPO/+PNA presence should make way for some record breaking cold air at times. The next 1-2 weeks are supportive of a continuous trough across the East while a ridge begins building back across the West as the +PNA formulates itself. If it indeed ends up being below normal, it'll be the fifth straight month with below normal temperature anomalies across the region, which is impressive. Storm track is key but with Spring Climatology starting to build back, the potential is their for some decent gradient type storms starting later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM, SREF and its hires suite are looking nice as well. Could be in for a decent 2-4" refresher if the hires models do better then the globals which I think they will. They tend to do better with the position of mesoscale banding, especially in a more dynamic setup like this. With a southern branch feature, its also common for the edge of the defo band to drift further NW then expected. SREF mean still in the 4-5" range. Probably a bit high but overall they've done a good job this winter and they've been relatively consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 BTW, I noticed chris scott tweeted that this winter (Dec 1-Feb 28th period) is officially the coldest in 20 years for YYZ and YOW. Pretty impressive. Very impressive indeed. I did some research myself and discovered that this is the second coldest met winter in 35 years for both Toronto and Ottawa. When you consider that the 1993-94 cold came in a two month period, this is the longest period of near sustained cold in both cities since 1978-79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 7cm IMBY final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm thinking 2-5cm for me. The further north you go, the less snow I would think, with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Latest 0z RGEM didn't look as impressive for Toronto tonight. Moderate snow west of the city, but it seems to hit a wall when it reaches the Toronto border. I don't think we'll be seeing 5-10cm (2-4") in the city. 1-2" at most I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Latest 0z RGEM didn't look as impressive for Toronto tonight. Moderate snow west of the city, but it seems to hit a wall when it reaches the Toronto border. I don't think we'll be seeing 5-10cm (2-4") in the city. 1-2" at most I would think. SREF mean has been steadily trending down with the rest of the model guidance (except the globals, which have gotten slightly wetter, but they were basically whiffs to begin with). 9z SREF mean = 2.9". I think that's a max amount. I'm in agreement with EC. About 2" is more likely. Enough to get Pearson over it's average seasonal snowfall number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm calling for ~3cm. I don't see much if any support for anything greater than 3-4cm atm. What a waste of potential and cold air! And next week is boring too. -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow. When the front came through this morning it was full-out zero visibility for probably a couple hours. I looked out at work and you couldn't see the cars in the parking lot 100 feet away. Haven't had those kind of conditions in a while, even in the heaviest snowsqualls. Forecast low tonight was -28 earlier, then revised up to -22 with squalls possible, now back down to -27 with possible squalls. Winter continues........ Thursday's squall is still a big story in SW and SC Ontario. 400+ accidents locally on Thursday with 2 OPP cruisers hit in separate incidents while they were pulled over investigating previous accidents. Roads were closed in all directions for a couple hours in the morning , a lot longer north of the city. I was at work so I wasn't really watching what transpired, but a friend who lives near us said one minute there was filtered sunshine and 2 minutes later she couldn't see her backyard fence 50 ft away. No wonder there were so many accidents, and so many stories of what people experienced out on the roads when it hit. A reporter asked the OPP what to do if you were on the highway in conditions like that. The response - ' don't pull over because someone that can't see you will probably plow into you, keep driving slowly so as to minimize any impacts from a frontal or rear-end crash, put on your 4-way flashers, and pray that you get out of the squall soon'. basically you're screwed........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And I wouldn't be surprised if March ends up below normal as well. The MJO and continuing -EPO/+PNA presence should make way for some record breaking cold air at times. The next 1-2 weeks are supportive of a continuous trough across the East while a ridge begins building back across the West as the +PNA formulates itself. If it indeed ends up being below normal, it'll be the fifth straight month with below normal temperature anomalies across the region, which is impressive. Storm track is key but with Spring Climatology starting to build back, the potential is their for some decent gradient type storms starting later next week. Truly awful! Once March arrives it's time for at least seasonal weather. I find my mood and everyone else around me to be rock bottom with this endless cold. I sometimes close my eyes and try to visualize greenery, shorts, sandals, and humidity... but the vision is so faint, so distant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Vancouver area set to get their second 9"+ storm in less than a week's time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Vancouver area set to get their second 9"+ storm in less than a week's time! Impressive. Although, looking at the data from YVR I noticed that the snowdepth after last week's storm never was greater than 1cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doing a month by month break down; November was the coldest since 1996, December was the coldest since 2000, January was the coldest since 2009 and February was the coldest since 2007. Not very impressive when you break it down month by month. Mean temp for DJF was -7.0C which I believe puts this in a top 10 cold Winter, barely. Quite the change when just two weeks ago, it looked as if it was a top 5 cold Winter. Overall, its the coldest Winter since 93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doing a month by month break down; November was the coldest since 1996, December was the coldest since 2000, January was the coldest since 2009 and February was the coldest since 2007. Not very impressive when you break it down month by month. Mean temp for DJF was -7.0C which I believe puts this in a top 10 cold Winter, barely. Quite the change when just two weeks ago, it looked as if it was a top 5 cold Winter. Overall, its the coldest Winter since 93-94. More impressive is that this is the second coldest winter since 78-79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Doing a month by month break down; November was the coldest since 1996, December was the coldest since 2000, January was the coldest since 2009 and February was the coldest since 2007. Not very impressive when you break it down month by month. Mean temp for DJF was -7.0C which I believe puts this in a top 10 cold Winter, barely. Quite the change when just two weeks ago, it looked as if it was a top 5 cold Winter. Overall, its the coldest Winter since 93-94. 2013-14 will go down as 10th coldest at YYZ. The difference between a top 5 and top 10 cold winter at YYZ is 0.7c so it doesn't take much of a warm spell to put the loftier goals out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ill take a top 10 winter any time. Great season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Impressive. Although, looking at the data from YVR I noticed that the snowdepth after last week's storm never was greater than 1cm. YVR is at sea level and right on the water; it was a very borderline event so areas above 50m elevation had those amounts. My sister is 40m above sea level and 10 km from the airport and had a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just got new snow shoes. Am hoping for a nice refresher tonight so I can use them a couple times before the season wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Somehow January 2014 was colder in Toronto than Edmonton... I bet you never expected January in Edmonton to be warmer than Toronto ssc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ill take a top 10 winter any time. Great season. Snow has been boringly average unfortunately. Snow >>> cold for me, but definitely an improvement over the last 2 years. 2011-12 got an F from me 2012-13 got a C+ from me 2013-14 gets a B right now. A snowstorm in March is very, very much needed to reach B+ territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Somehow January 2014 was colder in Toronto than Edmonton... I bet you never expected January in Edmonton to be warmer than Toronto ssc I expected January to be snowier in Toronto, but not colder. That's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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