Torontonian Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The fact of the matter is that we in Ontario wouldn't be comparing our winter to everyone else's if not for the internet. If we'd had a winter like this 20-25 years ago and then heard that we had above average snowfall, the coldest winter in 20 years, potentially the coldest February in 35 years on top of an ice storm, it would without a doubt be remembered as a stand-out winter. Even back 30 yrs. ago decent meteorologists (like Don Paul in Buffalo) had good radar images to show and lotsa info to share. This winter is surely eventful. Give it an A- thus far. If we get a 15 cm snowfall then would kick it up to an A. Maybe something decent will happen in next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Checked the monthly data this morning and the mean temperature for Pearson (-7.7c) hasn't changed since yesterday despite the addition of yesterday's data. I may be really bad at Math, but that still seems odd. If it was -7.7c, shouldn't it have been colder with the addition of yesterday's data? Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Checked the monthly data this morning and the mean temperature for Pearson (-7.7c) hasn't changed since yesterday despite the addition of yesterday's data. I may be really bad at Math, but that still seems odd. If it was -7.7c, shouldn't it have been colder with the addition of yesterday's data? Strange. Just did the math. Yesterday, the mean temp was -7.64583 (which is rounded up to -7.7). Today, the mean temp is -7.716 (rounded down to -7.7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Just did the math. Yesterday, the mean temp was -7.64583 (which is rounded up to -7.7). Today, the mean temp is -7.716 (rounded down to -7.7). Thanks for that. Amazing how easy it is for a mean temperature to go up with a few mild days, then take awhile to go back down, even with the arrival of cold weather. We likely won't beat 2007 or 1994, but we can at least finish up with a mean below -8c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Get ready guys, its almost at your doorstep. I had it and it was great...haven't seen conditions like that for weeks and weeks. That arctic front that went by last night had some incredible snowfall rates for 15-20 minutes. Visibility was 100-200 feet during peak of it Got a quick clip of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 That arctic front that went by last night had some incredible snowfall rates for 15-20 minutes. Visibility was 100-200 feet during peak of it Got a quick clip of it. As expected, the snow largely missed Toronto, although the western end of Lake Ontario got hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's official boys: Coldest winter in 20 years for both Ottawa and Toronto, coldest in 35 years for Winnipeg (wow!) and coldest in 18 years for Regina. A winter to tell the grand kids about for sure. Just remember not to tell them 50 years from now that all winters were like this one! http://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/coldest-ottawa-winter-in-20-years-1.1705321 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Environment Canada is forecasting -28 on Friday morning for KW. Quote from EC: "That's not record breaking, it's record shattering," said Geoff Coulson, a meteorologist at Environment Canada. http://www.therecord.com/news-story/4386320-friday-freeze-record-breaking-low-expected/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Environment Canada is forecasting -28 on Friday morning for KW. Quote from EC: http://www.therecord.com/news-story/4386320-friday-freeze-record-breaking-low-expected/ At the rate you guys are going this year, you'll hit -35 and Toronto will be stuck at -19. Haha. That's what having an airport in a rural location will do for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 I know I'll be accused of throwing in the towel too early, but the storm next week is looking like a miss and a dud for us. Wouldn't be surprised to see March bone dry up here. March used to be known as a stormy month but we seem to be going through a phase where it isn't, for this region at least. Last one was 6 years ago, although March 2011 had a couple of good storms up in Ottawa. I remember that year saw the only instance I can remember where a rain-to-snow scenario actually worked out. We had 20 mm of rain followed by 15 cm of snow on the 5th-6th I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At the rate you guys are going this year, you'll hit -35 and Toronto will be stuck at -19. Haha. That's what having an airport in a rural location will do for you. There isn't much of a difference between YKF or inner city station readings such as UW and University Downs. The airport is -12.3 right now, UW -12.8, and UD -12.7. Urban heat island or other effects are probably strongest in downtown Kitchener, but this area isn't very big land-wise which may help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 EC just issued snow squall watch for GTA. Doubt much wkill happen but will see..... http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on61#on61-726cwto-043100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hearing reports of +SN with near zero visibility from waterloo to south barrie with the squall line moving through. Will the escarpment shredder strike again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hearing reports of +SN with near zero visibility from waterloo to south barrie with the squall line moving through. Will the escarpment shredder strike again? Hopefully not, although this tends to happen, just as thunderstorms are shredded in the summer. Looks like the squall line is passing through Guelph at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hopefully not, although this tends to happen, just as thunderstorms are shredded in the summer. Looks like the squall line is passing through Guelph at the moment. You are sitting pretty right now. Looks like NE parts of the city will get hit hardest if it can keep its composure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 You are sitting pretty right now. Looks like NE parts of the city will get hit hardest if it can keep its composure. Checked latest EC King City radar. It looks to be dissipating as it approaches the west end of the city. I could be reading it wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Checked latest EC King City radar. It looks to be dissipating as it approaches the west end of the city. I could be reading it wrong though. Just noticed the heavier return impacting the 400. I see what you mean now. Upgraded to snowsquall warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ok this is awesome! From Tom Niziol Facebook: "Wow what a great video of a snow squall coming across Toronto associated with a fast moving Low pressure system. This is not a lake-effect band but it is VERY impressive !!! This video was taken from the CTV helicopter" http://www.cp24.com/...aylistPageNum=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2014 Author Share Posted February 27, 2014 Ok this is awesome! From Tom Niziol Facebook: "Wow what a great video of a snow squall coming across Toronto associated with a fast moving Low pressure system. This is not a lake-effect band but it is VERY impressive !!! This video was taken from the CTV helicopter" http://www.cp24.com/...aylistPageNum=1 That is pretty awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Losing momentum for next weeks storm as models continue with the suppressed idea. What a waste of potential. The PV is reluctant to move N quickly and as a result, storms are suppressed and we get nothing. We still have a few days to work this out but if we can get the PV to move up N quickly, this will allow the MSLP to track 100-300 miles further north. The SE ridge in the Atlantic may provide a helping hand as well if the other factors can line up. With an unfavorable Atlantic, the pattern has been too zonal/progressive to give storms ample time to develop and phase properly. This has been the case for most of the season. Jan 1st is a prime example. This cold dry pattern is getting rather boring. I think this is the first Winter in a while since I've seen the Sun out so much, lol. If the NE gets another snowstorm, I'm going to ****ing flip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Fantastic helicopter footage of the squall as it came into the GTA this morning http://www.cp24.com/video?clipId=298190&binId=1.1127680&playlistPageNum=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 There have been at least four pile-ups today, including a fatal one on the 402. 96 vehicle pile-up on the 400 near Barrie this morning. 30 vehicle pile-up on the 401 west of Kitchener. 20 vehicle pile-up near Mapleton on a Wellington County road. Fatal pile-up on the 402 has closed the hwy in Lambton County. In Waterloo Region, WRPS have closed most roads in and around Elmira due to crashes, one including a WRPS cruiser. Most highways are now closed in Southwestern Ontario. I think a blowing snow warning would have been a better decision than a special weather statement. Also at least Perth, Wellington, and Dufferin Counties have pulled school buses. Children are stuck at school. Bruce County has closed all roads. Huron County has now closed all roads. Perth County has closed all roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 There have been at least four pile-ups today, including a fatal one on the 402. 96 vehicle pile-up on the 400 near Barrie this morning. 30 vehicle pile-up on the 401 west of Kitchener. 20 vehicle pile-up near Mapleton on a Wellington County road. Fatal pile-up on the 402 has closed the hwy in Lambton County. In Waterloo Region, WRPS have closed most roads in and around Elmira due to crashes, one including a WRPS cruiser. Most highways are now closed in Southwestern Ontario. I think a blowing snow warning would have been a better decision than a special weather statement. Also at least Perth, Wellington, and Dufferin Counties have pulled school buses. Children are stuck at school. Bruce County has closed all roads. Huron County has now closed all roads. Perth County has closed all roads. Wow. When the front came through this morning it was full-out zero visibility for probably a couple hours. I looked out at work and you couldn't see the cars in the parking lot 100 feet away. Haven't had those kind of conditions in a while, even in the heaviest snowsqualls. Forecast low tonight was -28 earlier, then revised up to -22 with squalls possible, now back down to -27 with possible squalls. Winter continues........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Picked up 4.5 inches from lake enhancement ahead of the arctic front. Erie is 99% frozen, frictional convergence helps loads in events such as these. I swear we have received over 50% of our snowfall from lake enhancement events ahead of arctic fronts. None of them exceed 6 inches but we must have gotten 10-15 of these events so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Losing momentum for next weeks storm as models continue with the suppressed idea. What a waste of potential. The PV is reluctant to move N quickly and as a result, storms are suppressed and we get nothing. We still have a few days to work this out but if we can get the PV to move up N quickly, this will allow the MSLP to track 100-300 miles further north. The SE ridge in the Atlantic may provide a helping hand as well if the other factors can line up. With an unfavorable Atlantic, the pattern has been too zonal/progressive to give storms ample time to develop and phase properly. This has been the case for most of the season. Jan 1st is a prime example. This cold dry pattern is getting rather boring. I think this is the first Winter in a while since I've seen the Sun out so much, lol. If the NE gets another snowstorm, I'm going to ****ing flip! Its not so much the progressive flow that has kept the BZ SE of us most of the winter. Its more of the +PNA forcing along with the strong hudson bay vortex(typical -AMO, +NAO pattern). When the hybrid nina/nino look has set up this winter we see our stormy period's as you get the typical +QBO, la nina pacific high positioning which brings the EPO/PNA down in the means and shifts the storm track/gradient west. Doesn't look like we see much of a change to the +PNA and +NAO pattern over the next two weeks which is why cold and dry should rule the roost over S on. We may be looking at a sig warmup if the MJO can stay amplified into the IO... but that should wait for about the beginning of april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Its not so much the progressive flow that has kept the BZ SE of us most of the winter. Its more of the +PNA forcing along with the strong hudson bay vortex(typical -AMO, +NAO pattern). When the hybrid nina/nino look has set up this winter we see our stormy period's as you get the typical +QBO, la nina pacific high positioning which brings the EPO/PNA down in the means and shifts the storm track/gradient west. Doesn't look like we see much of a change to the +PNA and +NAO pattern over the next two weeks which is why cold and dry should rule the roost over S on. We may be looking at a sig warmup if the MJO can stay amplified into the IO... but that should wait for about the beginning of april. Do you think we will see any snow on Saturday? Have been downtown today and the winds have been something else! As well, it's a different world with regard to snow cover as theres next to none in the concrete jungle, compared to my 20cm snowpack in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 It'll be interesting to see if Toronto can make it down to -22c (currently at -16.7c on my thermometer). It's still quite windy outside which might prevent the temperature from dropping off too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 -30 at UW and -27 at YKF @ 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Another frosty morning here - 26C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 That station near Ridgeway Fort Erie is currently reporting -27C, i'm literally 5 mins away and sitting here at -20C. Urban heat FTL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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