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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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It always intrigues me why EC has such a warm bias when it comes to temperature forecasts. For example, their latest forecast for next week has Toronto with a high of minus 9 on Thursday and minus 8 on Friday, when other outlets are calling for highs around minus 13. Let's face it, by this winter's standards, high minus 9 or minus 8 is no big deal and certainly not what I would consider "Siberian air" as even TWN is hinting at.

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Safe travels Mike.

 

When's the "usual" time when the landscape in Edmonton is snow free?

 

Thanks Tim. I lift a beer in support of your quest for 70" on the season. :beer:

 

First spring in the prairies so I have no idea. Looking at the airport data the last couple of years it seems like mid to late April is a safe bet. 

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Thanks Tim. I lift a beer in support of your quest for 70" on the season. :beer:

 

First spring in the prairies so I have no idea. Looking at the airport data the last couple of years it seems like mid to late April is a safe bet. 

 

I think 70" is but a dream now, as our snow climo is diminishing quickly...but getting to and over 60" was spectacular. I'll never forget this winter. I'll definitely drink to that. :)

 

And cool. I was thinking it had to be somewhere around that time for up there. Good luck the rest of the school year. 

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I think 70" is but a dream now, as our snow climo is diminishing quickly...but getting to and over 60" was spectacular. I'll never forget this winter. I'll definitely drink to that. :)

 

And cool. I was thinking it had to be somewhere around that time for up there. Good luck the rest of the school year. 

 

When in drought, stay in doubt. When the snow is deep, the pattern you shall keep. I'd say you've at least got a 50/50 shot. :)

 

Thanks.

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When in drought, stay in doubt. When the snow is deep, the pattern you shall keep. I'd say you've at least got a 50/50 shot. :)

 

Thanks.

 

Eh, it has to quit at some point. Tonight's bust is probably a good sign of the end for LAF.  Plus we used up all of our good March snow mojo last year.  :D

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Leave for Edmonton in the morning. Next time I see Toronto the birds will be chirping, the trees will be almost leafed out, and the snow will be long gone. :(

Have a safe trip. Doesn't look like your going to miss much... at least over the next 6-10 days. Hopefully we can get the trough to retrograde once tropical forcing can nudge into the western IO. Still think march and april hold decent potential if that north pac warm pool can continue to pump heights into the EPO domain. Would be nice to reach the march/april snowfall normals to get us solidly AN at pearson.

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Have a safe trip. Doesn't look like your going to miss much... at least over the next 6-10 days. Hopefully we can get the trough to retrograde once tropical forcing can nudge into the western IO. Still think march and april hold decent potential if that north pac warm pool can continue to pump heights into the EPO domain. Would be nice to reach the march/april snowfall normals to get us solidly AN at pearson.

 

Even if storms do develop, I've had fun tracking from YEG. It's not quite the same but I get a lot of the same pleasure (and I lose a lot less sleep, so that's great). What do the teleconnections says about the D8-9 storm?

 

Decent shot of this winter being the snowiest since 2010-11, and maybe 2008-09.

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Even if storms do develop, I've had fun tracking from YEG. It's not quite the same but I get a lot of the same pleasure (and I lose a lot less sleep, so that's great). What do the teleconnections says about the D8-9 storm?

Decent shot of this winter being the snowiest since 2010-11, and maybe 2008-09.

Have a safe trip bro. Im sure this week wasnt the best week for a winter lover as yourself but atleast you got to enjoy whatever we got lol.

I think 08-09 might be out of reach but 10-11 is a decent shot for YYZ.

When you coming back next time? June?

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Have a safe trip bro. Im sure this week wasnt the best week for a winter lover as yourself but atleast you got to enjoy whatever we got lol.

I think 08-09 might be out of reach but 10-11 is a decent shot for YYZ.

When you coming back next time? June?

 

Oh, yeah, 08-09 is out of reach. I think we have a shot of this being the snowiest winter since 08-09.

 

I'll be back in May.

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Oh, yeah, 08-09 is out of reach. I think we have a shot of this being the snowiest winter since 08-09.

I'll be back in May.

Yup, its possible if we see another storm or two in March (>15cm). And awesome! :D Just in time for Summer ;). I'm probably going to California or some Sunny destination around the Caribbean in May. Alot of pretty girls I tell ya.

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Been AOB -15c 17 times this winter so far at north york. I'm sure buttonville is even higher. Could make a run at 25... 20 is definitely a good possibility if this cold shot can perform as currently depicted by the euro. As a comparison we only dipped below the -15c mark 7 times last winter, which was pretty cold late in the season.

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Even if storms do develop, I've had fun tracking from YEG. It's not quite the same but I get a lot of the same pleasure (and I lose a lot less sleep, so that's great). What do the teleconnections says about the D8-9 storm?

 

Decent shot of this winter being the snowiest since 2010-11, and maybe 2008-09.

Doesn't look like such a bad setup actually. The PV shifts well NE, and is in position just offshore from the labrador coast. We also have a neutral and rising AO per the euro as well as a positive NAO. The problem is that the EPO is negative so the trough is forced to bowl due east through the south california coast/southern plains instead of having a more typical NE ejection at H5 and the sfc. We also have a retrograding PV which only weakens/suppresses the vort further. What are your thoughts?

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Snow pack really took a beating this weekend. Only 2.5" at Downsview and 3" up at YorkU. 1" of glacier in the parks in midtown and a thin dusting downtown is all that remains, aside from the snow piles.

wow I didn't know the downtown got hit that bad. The grass is fully covered here but its not looking good. At least with the solidly cold temperatures we can make run at the consecutive days with snow on the ground. 

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In the home stretch for the downtown core and those of us along the lake. only about 2-3 weeks left of a decent snowstorm chance followed by 1-2 weeks of pushing the envelope. 

 

Looks like dry, dry, more dry is the forecast during our prime storm chances.

 

I think given the cold nature of this winter, chances of snow will be better later. If we can keep below normal temps, and with the lakes running so cold right now, we should be okay for a shot at a decent snow storm through to the end of March.

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Looks like dry, dry, more dry is the forecast during our prime storm chances.

 

I think given the cold nature of this winter, chances of snow will be better later. If we can keep below normal temps, and with the lakes running so cold right now, we should be okay for a shot at a decent snow storm through to the end of March.

I agree if this is the year for a late season snow this is it. I just want to beat the snow cover record and then it can all disappear. This is a fun time of the year because you can really tell that winter begins to lose. Its almost like the last days of September when its still warm but you can feel fall in the air. 

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