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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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I could be misreading the radar, and the heaviest rain could come later, but it seems like the rain has not been as heavy or as widespread as originally forecast. Big dry slot seems to be heading our way and I can't see us making 25mm at this rate. Not that I'm complaining - didn't fancy a flood or losing my snowpack.

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I could be misreading the radar, and the heaviest rain could come later, but it seems like the rain has not been as heavy or as widespread as originally forecast. Big dry slot seems to be heading our way and I can't see us making 25mm at this rate. Not that I'm complaining - didn't fancy a flood or losing my snowpack.

 

It's not every year in the mid of a heavy snowpack winter you get the chance to crack several days of above freezing temps with up to 50mm/5cm/2" of rain possible. Not wishing misery on anyone, but it would have been interesting to see what could have happened. All our temp forecasts have busted staying below freezing most of the time, and the heavy rain really hasn't come yet. We've probably cracked 10mm, but doubting we'll make a run for the latest EC revised forecasts of 25mm for this area.

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Still holding steady at 2.0 degrees as it has been between 2.0 and 3.0 degrees the entire day.

 

Snow that fell has now glaciated from compacting and has made sidewalks very dangerous.

 

Strange, Highest temperature so far at my Queens Park location was 1.4 degrees.

Billy Bishop's high was 1.5 degrees

 

It is slippery out there.

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Thought the EC call of 25-50mm yesterday seemed quite bullish. Doubt many of the rainfall warnings will verify. BIg temperature bust as well, with EC calling for 8C at one point yesterday in the YYZ forecast.

 

Since this flood event was going to be mediocre at best, I'm kind of glad it flopped. Like I said earlier it might actually help to set up a bigger flood down the road with some extra water in the ground and the river ice freed up a little.

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Thought the EC call of 25-50mm yesterday seemed quite bullish. Doubt many of the rainfall warnings will verify. BIg temperature bust as well, with EC calling for 8C at one point yesterday in the YYZ forecast.

 

Since this flood event was going to be mediocre at best, I'm kind of glad it flopped. Like I said earlier it might actually help to set up a bigger flood down the road with some extra water in the ground and the river ice freed up a little.

 

You think this event could be adding fire to the fire?

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Would say there is still 10 mm of rain with embedded TRW to come for most as a better defined warm sector rapidly develops tonight. Temps will spike at 8-10 C around 0400h. This will accelerate snowmelt too, so the worst of any flooding will come tomorrow morning.

 

My reading of the charts is like this for Toronto and similar for other locations ... rain and thunder late overnight, clearing and windy for a few hours, temps fall to about 3-4 C by noon, then overcast again with a weak secondary cold front, light snow behind that by afternoon and evening but only trace to 1 cm amounts. Max wind gusts in the 70-90 km/hr range from SSW.

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 a better defined warm sector rapidly develops tonight. Temps will spike at 8-10 C around 0400h. This will accelerate snowmelt too, so the worst of any flooding will come tomorrow morning.

 

My reading of the charts is like this for Toronto and similar for other locations ... rain and thunder late overnight, clearing and windy for a few hours, temps fall to about 3-4 C by noon,

 

Checked daily data this morning and found the highest temperature was 37 F last night at 2 am.here downtown.

 

The data corresponds with my observations yesterday.with temperature.dip at 6 pm to near 0.

 

Guess the thing here was T-storm bit last night about 10 pm and lack of significant rise in temperature.that was forecast.

Check the data....

http://weather.gc.ca/trends_table/pages/xto_imperial_e.html

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Warm front got stuck over the icy waters of the lower lakes. Temperature fail.

 

EURO ftw. Haven't said that too many times this winter. Nailed lower QPF and temps. 

 

The EURO indeed did very well with the temperature forecast.

Almost looks like the rain just soaked right into the snowcover. The pack is alive and well up here. Weve got siberia coming up before another potential system around the 3rd-4th, which is right around the time that the snow cover record could be set.

My snowpack survived the onslaught of heavy rain as well - it was quite heavy around 5am and woke me up.

 

Sidewalks are going to be a mess given salt is in short supply in these parts.

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You think this event could be adding fire to the fire?

 

Yes I suspect it will. As other people above have mentioned the snowpack absorbed a lot of the rain, so that snow is going to be DENSE after freezing up again. Has to be 3"+ of water in the snowpack at this point if I had to guess (anyone want to do a water content measurement?)

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Yes I suspect it will. As other people above have mentioned the snowpack absorbed a lot of the rain, so that snow is going to be DENSE after freezing up again. Has to be 3"+ of water in the snowpack at this point if I had to guess (anyone want to do a water content measurement?

How much snow do you have on the ground harrisale? We lost a lot last night. Just under 6 inches left here. 

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Hit a high of 3.9 overnight. What a bust! What was the GEM thinking with 8 degrees?? A bit shocked how poorly the GEM did with this event.

 

Lots of patchy grass spots showing up around parks downtown. Down to about 4" of snow in the more "consistent" spots of snow cover. Lost more than half the snowpack. Not surprised, given then snow on the ground here was much wetter to start with, so no real availability to "sponge" the snow like it appears to have done up in the northern 'burbs.

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Coldest Februaries at YYZ

 

1. 1979  -10.8

2. 1978  -10.0

3. 1963    -9.4

4. 1967    -8.7

5. 1993    -8.4

5. 2007    -8.4

 

As of today, 2014 sits at -8.7, which is good for a tie for 4th. I figure 1 and 2 are out of reach.

 

Given we're going to be averaging means of -10 for the rest of the month, I think third place is well within reach. 1 and 2 are out the window, for sure.

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Given we're going to be averaging means of -10 for the rest of the month, I think third place is well within reach. 1 and 2 are out the window, for sure.

 

Just did the math based off Environment Canada forecast temperatures for the next week, and we still won't quite make it to third. Temps simply rise too high in the daytime due to solar angle at this time of year. Who knows though, cold could overperform.

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Hit a high of 3.9 overnight. What a bust! What was the GEM thinking with 8 degrees?? A bit shocked how poorly the GEM did with this event.

Lots of patchy grass spots showing up around parks downtown. Down to about 4" of snow in the more "consistent" spots of snow cover. Lost more than half the snowpack. Not surprised, given then snow on the ground here was much wetter to start with, so no real availability to "sponge" the snow like it appears to have done up in the northern 'burbs.

GGEM/RGEM are always too warm or to wet with every storm. Euro nailed this event in the GTA. Yet you yourself were reluctant and decided to agree with Environment Canada's hefty rainfail totals. Haha. That surprise 3-5cm in the GTA sort of preserved the snow on the ground. I still have a solid snow depth of around 35-40cm in my area.

Going to get icy out their tonight LOL. My driveways already an ice rink haha.

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Just did the math based off Environment Canada forecast temperatures for the next week, and we still won't quite make it to third. Temps simply rise too high in the daytime due to solar angle at this time of year. Who knows though, cold could overperform.

If low temperatures are at or below -16C and high temperatures are at or below -8C, the daily mean temperature will be below -10C then. If this complies, we have a decent shot.

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If low temperatures are at or below -16C and high temperatures are at or below -8C, the daily mean temperature will be below -10C then. If this complies, we have a decent shot.

My goal is to have the coldest February of my life in Toronto (born in 1980). If we can finish the month with a mean colder than -8.7C (which both 1967 and 1994 had) then I will be satisfied.

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Just did the math based off Environment Canada forecast temperatures for the next week, and we still won't quite make it to third. Temps simply rise too high in the daytime due to solar angle at this time of year. Who knows though, cold could overperform.

You make a good point, but Environment Canada always forecasts temperatures that are too warm in situations like this. January 7th is a case in point. A week beforehand, they were calling for a high of minus 8 for that day. As we got closer to the day, the numbers were lowered to minus 10, then minus 13. We eventually had a high of minus 17.

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GGEM/RGEM are always too warm or to wet with every storm. Euro nailed this event in the GTA. Yet you yourself were reluctant and decided to agree with Environment Canada's hefty rainfail totals. Haha. That surprise 3-5cm in the GTA sort of preserved the snow on the ground. I still have a solid snow depth of around 35-40cm in my area.

Going to get icy out their tonight LOL. My driveways already an ice rink haha.

 

What is the point of the bolded sentence? Very rude.

 

I went with the model that has been dominant with every system this winter pretty much. How STUPID of me!!

 

Euro busted low with its rainfall totals with this event. It was forecasting 15 mm totals for quite sometime. Most places saw 20-30 mm, smack dab within EC's forecasted range. You can't go with the model you want every time. That's not how science works.

 

Most of the GTA did not preserve their snowpack before the event. I'm down half and midtown lost about 25%

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You make a good point, but Environment Canada always forecasts temperatures that are too warm in situations like this. January 7th is a case in point. A week beforehand, they were calling for a high of minus 8 for that day. As we got closer to the day, the numbers were lowered to minus 10, then minus 13. We eventually had a high of minus 17.

 

I agree. I think EC's LR forecast is too mild. They'll begin lowering some of those temperatures as those dates approach closer.

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Could make a run for those two coldest Febs -- but it would take some epic cold on 27th and 28th. Too bad it's not a leap year.

 

Mind you, Feb 1979 just had that one super cold outbreak thanks to a 1055 mb high,  and then it was rather mild near the end of that month as I recall. Feb 1978, 1963 and 1967 were cold almost every day of the month.

 

How is sunshine doing this month? I recall that Feb 1964 had nearly twice normal sunshine hours.

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