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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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The positioning of the PV and PNA ridge later next week will be a key factor in determining the track of a potential Winter storm around March 1st. A weak SE Ridge will be in place with plenty of cold air all around us. Key is timing and positioning. The AO goes negative next week; however, the NAO remains positive as depicted by models atm and that could become a helping factor once we get closer. Given climatology, the extreme cold won't be as persistent as it was earlier this month, which is why the potential exists for something big to form. 

 

Just an interesting note.

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The positioning of the PV and PNA ridge later next week will be a key factor in determining the track of a potential Winter storm around March 1st. A weak SE Ridge will be in place with plenty of cold air all around us. Key is timing and positioning. The AO goes negative next week; however, the NAO remains positive as depicted by models atm and that could become a helping factor once we get closer. Given climatology, the extreme cold won't be as persistent as it was earlier this month, which is why the potential exists for something big to form. 

 

Just an interesting note.

 

I agree with the threat of a bigger storm but I think it'll be a little later than March 1.

 

And although suppression isn't as likely in March, don't think it can't happen. That big storm last March. The super clipper in March 2008. A storm around the middle of March in 2004 that dropped 1-2 feet along the north shore of Lk Erie while Toronto got 2".

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I agree with the threat of a bigger storm but I think it'll be a little later than March 1.

 

And although suppression isn't as likely in March, don't think it can't happen. That big storm last March. The super clipper in March 2008. A storm around the middle of March in 2004 that dropped 1-2 feet along the north shore of Lk Erie while Toronto got 2".

 

We've gotten whiffed to the south here with snow in April.

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Still just light rain at my place. Temperature now +0.1c.

 

Path is going to be a mess once this freezes over...and we are out of salt!

 

Curious to see how the freeze will be. All the fallen snow from today is now a puddle of slush, could be a skating rink by tomorrow. EC is forecasting -3 tomorrow aft here. Guess the above 0 temps are off the table.

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