snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 That sounds about right. I doubt anyone in the GTA has 10+ inches come saturday morning. Newmarket north is another story. You got that right. But I doubt it gets completely destroyed. There's a layer of ice from the icestorm buried in there that's going to be tough to erode. And under that, there's a few compacted inches of snow. I'm guessing we at least walk away with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Should have a +PNA/ +NAO pattern with east pac/african forcing from the weekend through about March 1st which means that the storm track should stay predominantly to our south and east. I think once we get into the beginning of march the mean trough has the potential to shift west along with a retrograding NE pac cut off high/wave break. Even if the +PNA pattern continues the PV should retreat some allowing the Se ridge to expand and usher in a flow more favourable for moisture and storminess. Weeklies continue to look tasty well into march if you want cold/snow threats. Yeah, i agree! We haven't really seen any help from the Atlantic this Winter and I see no signs of that through early March atm. The +PNA will lock in the PV across Hudson Bay and thus keep temperatures well below normal and storms suppressed. An awful pattern for snow lovers as the cold just gets wasted, lol. Expansive snow/ice cover across the region is going to enhance the cold anomalies. Quite possible records may be broken once again, lol. And thats awesome. Wouldn't surprise me if we see some STJ influence in March in correlation to the MJO. March is usually the battleground between Winter and Spring, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Last I checked, my snowpack was down to 31cm (12") this evening, down from 34 cm this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I find the American National Weather Service issues more warnings and watches than Environment Canada, which is a good thing as it alerts and prepares the public. Environment Canada is expanding and altering their public alerting system in April, including introducing weather advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 YYZ consecutive days with snowcover rankings 1. 1969-70.....85 2. 2000-01.....84 3. 1977-78.....81 4. 1970-71.....77 5. 2013-14.....72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Toronto City normals for 1851-1880 and 1861-1890 Month _____ Max __ Mean __ Min __________ Extremes 1841-90 ______ Rain _ Snow _ Precip* _______________ ( deg F) __________________________________________ (all in inches) ______ JAN _51-80___ 28.7 _ 21.8 _ 14.8 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 0.85 _ 17.6 __ 2.61 ____ 61-90___ 28.4 _ 21.3 _ 14.1 _____ 58 (1, 1876) _ --27 (10, 1859)___ 0.99 _ 19.2 __ 2.91 FEB _51-80___ 29.5 _ 22.1 _ 14.6 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 0.87 _ 16.8 __ 2.55 ____ 61-90___ 29.8 _ 22.0 _ 14.2 _____ 54 (4,5 1890) _--25 (5,6 1855)___ 0.87 _ 16.6 __ 2.53 MAR _51-80___ 35.7 _ 29.3 _ 22.8 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 1.63 _ 14.7 __ 3.10 ____ 61-90___ 34.7 _ 28.1 _ 21.4 _____ 70 (19 1842) _--16 ( 3, 1868) ___ 1.49 _ 15.4 __ 3.03 APR _51-80___ 48.5 _ 40.8 _ 33.0 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.23 __ 2.7 __ 2.50 ____ 61-90___ 49.2 _ 41.1 _ 32.9 _____ 90 (22 1842) ___ 6 ( 2, 1857) ___ 1.99 __ 2.5 __ 2.24 MAY _51-80___ 61.2 _ 52.1 _ 43.0 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 3.13 __ 0.2 __ 3.15 ____ 61-90___ 61.7 _ 52.5 _ 43.2 _____ 90 (12 1881) __ 25 ( 7, 1874 & ___ 2.73 __ 0.2 __ 2.75 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6, 1854, 3, 1867) JUN _51-80___ 71.5 _ 62.1 _ 52.6 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.69 __ 0.0 __ 2.69 ____ 61-90___ 72.0 _ 62.4 _ 52.8 _____ 93 (29 1841& __ 28 (10 1842 & __ 2.77 __ 0.0 __ 2.77 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 26 1854, 25 1864) - - - 2 1843) JUL _51-80___ 77.4 _ 68.1 _ 58.7 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.99 __ 0.0 __ 2.99 ____ 61-90___ 77.7 _ 68.2 _ 58.6 _____ 97 (19 1854& __ 39 (12 1843) ___ 2.76 __ 0.0 __ 2.76 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 17 1856, 16 1887) AJG _51-80___ 75.8 _ 66.6 _ 57.3 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.83 __ 0.0 __ 2.83 ____ 61-90___ 75.8 _ 66.6 _ 57.4 _____100 (24 1854) __ 40 (18 1855& ___ 2.69 __ 0.0 __ 2.69 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -27 1870) SEP _51-80___ 67.3 _ 58.7 _ 50.0 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 3.24 __ 0.0 __ 3.24 ____ 61-90___ 67.7 _ 59.1 _ 50.5 _____ 94 (5, 1854) __ 28 (27 1844&48) _ 2.89 __ 0.0 __ 2.89 OCT _51-80___ 54.5 _ 46.9 _ 39.3 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.12 __ 0.6 __ 2.18 ____ 61-90___ 54.6 _ 47.1 _ 39.5 _____ 82 (4, 1884) __ 16 (31, 1844) ___ 2.26 __ 0.7 __ 2.33 NOV _51-80___ 41.4 _ 35.5 _ 29.5 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.67 __ 5.1 __ 3.18 ____ 61-90___ 41.8 _ 35.8 _ 29.7 _____ 67 (5, 1863) ___ -5 (30, 1875) ___ 2.42 __ 5.5 __ 2.97 DEC _51-80___ 31.3 _ 25.1 _ 18.9 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 1.53 _ 16.4 __ 3.17 ____ 61-90___ 32.1 _ 25.9 _ 19.7 _____ 61 (31 1875) __ -21 (21, 1871) __ 1.41 _ 13.9 __ 2.80 YEAR 51-80 __ 51.8 _ 44.0 _ 36.2 __________________________________26.78 _ 74.1 _ 34.19 YEAR 61-90 __ 52.0 _ 44.1 _ 36.1 _____ 100 Aug 1854 __ -27 Jan 1859 ___25.30 _ 74.0 _ 32.70 _________________________________________________________________________________ *(as converted, appears to be 10:1 all snowfalls) APR was often quite dry and in 1881 the total was 0.10" from 0.08" rain and 0.2" snow MAY became considerably drier after a record wet 1868, 1851-68 mean 3.5" 1868-90 about 2.4" JUN had the same trend but the wet year was 1870 (8.09") then a much drier trend developed 1871-90 (and beyond) AUG 1876 had only trace, the only dry month (Oct 1963 almost made it). 10-year averages, temps and rainfall only, 1841-1850 (only 4 or 5 years with snowfall data after 1844 -- it was heavy in February of 1846 and 1850, nothing much in the January data available, or March except 1850 .. Dec 1850 had about 30" of snow) JAN _________ 31.7 _ 24.5 _ 17.3 _______________________________ 2.31 (9 yrs, 1845 no data) FEB _________ 30.1 _ 22.9 _ 15.6 _______________________________ 0.82 (9 yrs, 1845 no data) MAR _________ 37.4 _ 29.0 _ 20.6_______________________________ 1.64 (9 yrs, 1845 no data, 1840 was 1.62") APR _________ 49.8 _ 41.5 _ 33.2 _______________________________ 2.55 (10 yrs, 1840 was 3.46") MAY _________ 61.5 _ 51.9 _ 42.3 _______________________________ 2.77 (10 yrs, 1840 was 4.16")JUN _________ 71.2 _ 61.3 _ 51.3 _______________________________ 3.18 (10 yrs, 1840 was 4.86") JUL __________ 77.4 _ 66.9 _ 56.3 _______________________________ 3.76 (10 yrs, 1840 was 5.29") AUG _________ 75.6 _ 66.1 _ 56.6 _______________________________ 3.25 (9 yrs, 1844 partial, 1840 was 2.91") SEP _________ 66.7 _ 57.9 _ 49.0 ________________________________ 4.34 (10 yrs, 1840 1.3" but 2d msg) OCT _________ 52.3 _ 44.6 _ 36.8 _______________________________ 3.05 (9 yrs, 1844 no data, 1840 was 1.89") NOV _________ 42.5 _ 36.6 _ 30.7 _______________________________ 3.22 (9 yrs, 1844 no data, 1840 was 1.22") DEC _________ 32.3 _ 26.5 _ 20.7 _______________________________ 1.61 (9 yrs, 1844 no data, 1840 was rain free) YEAR ________ 52.7 _ 44.2 _ 35.7 ______________________________ 32.50 (snow ~60) (P~38.5) NOTES -- There was no data for Jan/Feb 1840 ... 1840 temps are generally below the normals for the decade of 1841-50, except for a very warm spell in early March but they are incomplete so I don't make reference to them here ... I mention the 1840 rainfalls but they don't appear in the decade means ... Note how wet September was in the 1840s, Sep 1843 had almost ten inches of rain (9.77"). Factoids -- The highest temperature in March from 1861 to 1892 was 59 F. -- The highest temperature in April from 1847 to 1894 was 73 F. -- Novembers were coldest in the 1870s. Assessment -- The climate from 1841 to 1890 was generally drying but snowfall was becoming heavier, peaking around 1870. By the 1880s (and into the 1890s) precip was generally closer to modern normals. Temperatures were notably colder especially in the spring and autumn months. The normals in this period look like those from 100-150 miles north of Toronto nowadays, or like Toronto two weeks closer to winter in terms of a late spring and an early autumn. The differences become smaller in January and July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 I could be wrong, but the 0z GFS seems to be hinting at some backend snow late Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I could be wrong, but the 0z GFS seems to be hinting at some backend snow late Friday morning. Nope. That precip. has fallen long before the cold air gets deep enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What's the situation looking like with this heavy rain? Flood potential in the warning is non-existent, but are we at real risk of major flash flooding considering snow melt, heavy rain, and snow covered storm water drains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 YYZ consecutive days with snowcover rankings 1. 1969-70.....85 2. 2000-01.....84 3. 1977-78.....81 4. 1970-71.....77 5. 2013-14.....72 So it seems if we can retain just enough we should be able to challenge the number 1 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 So it seems if we can retain just enough we should be able to challenge the number 1 spot. 73 now. We have potential but it'd be nice if there was even some light reinforcing snow on the way. Pearson can be pretty liberal with their "T"s (trace). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Maybe some wet snow or PL mixture to start today but I'm not expecting anything the stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Maybe some wet snow or PL mixture to start today but I'm not expecting anything the stick.Its icy everywhere right now. Temperature is -6.5C at my house, haha. As for next week, I don't think the PV will get as far south as the models show right now. Climatology won't favor such an outcome but then again, mother nature always finds ways to twist the fundamental laws lol. If it stays a bit further North, the SE ridge will have some room to breathe and thats what we need. Otherwise, enjoy todays piss tank man LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Its icy everywhere right now. Temperature is -6.5C at my house, haha. As for next week, I don't think the PV will get as far south as the models show right now. Climatology won't favor such an outcome but then again, mother nature always finds ways to twist the fundamental laws lol. If it stays a bit further North, the SE ridge will have some room to breathe and thats what we need. Otherwise, enjoy todays piss tank man LOL. PV is only part of the problem. Other problem is that mountain of heights across the west deflecting any Pacific s/ws. Right now next week looks like it's a choice between frigid and dry or meh cold and dry. Maybe better luck in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Maybe some wet snow or PL mixture to start today but I'm not expecting anything the stick. With a warm layer already showing up in and around 925mb, it will be hard to get any SN to fall IMO. The HRRR does suggest that we see cooling of the BL once the onset of heavy precip occurs and it actually changes -ZR over to a +SNPL mix. Not sure I believe this given poor sfc temp initialization from the model but something to watch. I'm thinking a few pellets to start out and possibly a thin glaze over the sub 0c snowpack before we go over to a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 PV is only part of the problem. Other problem is that mountain of heights across the west deflecting any Pacific s/ws. Right now next week looks like it's a choice between frigid and dry or meh cold and dry. Maybe better luck in March. For next week, I'd take the frigid cold to bring down our monthly mean temperature. Come March 1st, and the start of meteorological spring, I'm done with the vodka cold and am all for moderate cold and snow. Minus 4 and snow would do me for the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Up to 0.0c - right on the freezing mark - at my place. Have to wonder if the temperature will drop back down slightly once an east wind kicks in. It's apparently -13c up in Barrie right now, under a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Up to 0.0c - right on the freezing mark - at my place. Have to wonder if the temperature will drop back down slightly once an east wind kicks in. It's apparently -13c up in Barrie right now, under a NE wind. No. East wind is not going to cool temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Interesting upstream reports of TSSN in lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 RAP and HRRR are extremely aggressive with the snow this afternoon. Both are printing out over 4" for the GTA. I don't buy that for a second but looking at the soundings off of the RAP there is a major dry layer between 700 and 850mb that'll have to be evaporatively cooled. Might get a decent burst right at the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Interesting upstream reports of TSSN in lower MI. Plenty of thunder to the southwest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Not too worried about the river flooding potential. Duration of warmth is far too short and the ice on rivers too thick to really get anything moving and jam up. Snowpack will absorb a lot of the rainfall, but street flooding and flooding of small urban waterways and streams is a possibility. Overall, this event may actually set up a bigger flood in March sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 As that initial band of precip gets eaten away by the dry air, really starting to see the previously torching 925 temps cool off. Sfc temps are only a shade above freezing too. Good signs if you want a couple of hours of wintry fun to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 YXU 600m vis. in SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What a hockey game. What a come back. GO CANADA! Sorry OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What a hockey game. What a come back. GO CANADA! Sorry OT Amen! Way to go ladies! Two golds today. Just more proof Canada has the best women in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 YXU 600m vis. in SN. Have to admit it would be nice to see some snow to start things off. Up to +2c at Pearson though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 -SN here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 -SN here now. Should be here by 4:30 I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 SN with 600m visibility at YHM. -SN at YKF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.