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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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That sounds about right. I doubt anyone in the GTA has 10+ inches come saturday morning. Newmarket north is another story. 

 

You got that right. But I doubt it gets completely destroyed. There's a layer of ice from the icestorm buried in there that's going to be tough to erode. And under that, there's a few compacted inches of snow. I'm guessing we at least walk away with that.

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Should have a +PNA/ +NAO pattern with east pac/african forcing from the weekend through about March 1st which means that the storm track should stay predominantly to our south and east. I think once we get into the beginning of march the mean trough has the potential to shift west along with a retrograding NE pac cut off high/wave break. Even if the +PNA pattern continues the PV should retreat some allowing the Se ridge to expand and usher in a flow more favourable for moisture and storminess. Weeklies continue to look tasty well into march if you want cold/snow threats.

 

Yeah, i agree! We haven't really seen any help from the Atlantic this Winter and I see no signs of that through early March atm. The +PNA will lock in the PV across Hudson Bay and thus keep temperatures well below normal and storms suppressed. An awful pattern for snow lovers as the cold just gets wasted, lol. Expansive snow/ice cover across the region is going to enhance the cold anomalies. Quite possible records may be broken once again, lol. 

 

And thats awesome. Wouldn't surprise me if we see some STJ influence in March in correlation to the MJO. March is usually the battleground between Winter and Spring, haha. 

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I find the American National Weather Service issues more warnings and watches than Environment Canada, which is a good thing as it alerts and prepares the public.

 

Environment Canada is expanding and altering their public alerting system in April, including introducing weather advisories. 

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Toronto City normals for 1851-1880 and 1861-1890

 

 

Month _____ Max __ Mean __ Min __________ Extremes 1841-90 ______ Rain _ Snow _ Precip*

_______________ ( deg F) __________________________________________ (all in inches) ______

 

JAN _51-80___ 28.7 _ 21.8 _ 14.8 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 0.85 _ 17.6 __ 2.61

____ 61-90___ 28.4 _ 21.3 _ 14.1 _____ 58 (1, 1876) _ --27 (10, 1859)___ 0.99 _ 19.2 __ 2.91

 

FEB _51-80___ 29.5 _ 22.1 _ 14.6 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 0.87 _ 16.8 __ 2.55

____ 61-90___ 29.8 _ 22.0 _ 14.2 _____ 54 (4,5 1890) _--25 (5,6 1855)___ 0.87 _ 16.6 __ 2.53

 

MAR _51-80___ 35.7 _ 29.3 _ 22.8 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 1.63 _ 14.7 __ 3.10

____  61-90___ 34.7 _ 28.1 _ 21.4 _____ 70 (19 1842) _--16 ( 3, 1868) ___ 1.49 _ 15.4 __ 3.03

 

APR _51-80___ 48.5 _ 40.8 _ 33.0 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.23 __ 2.7 __ 2.50

____ 61-90___ 49.2 _ 41.1 _ 32.9 _____ 90 (22 1842) ___ 6 ( 2, 1857) ___ 1.99 __ 2.5 __ 2.24

 

MAY _51-80___ 61.2 _ 52.1 _ 43.0 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 3.13 __ 0.2 __ 3.15

____ 61-90___ 61.7 _ 52.5 _ 43.2 _____ 90 (12 1881) __ 25 ( 7, 1874 & ___ 2.73 __ 0.2 __ 2.75

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  6, 1854, 3, 1867)

 

JUN _51-80___ 71.5 _ 62.1 _ 52.6 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.69 __ 0.0 __ 2.69

____ 61-90___ 72.0 _ 62.4 _ 52.8 _____ 93 (29 1841& __ 28 (10 1842 & __ 2.77 __ 0.0 __ 2.77

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 26 1854, 25 1864) - - - 2 1843)

 

JUL _51-80___ 77.4 _ 68.1 _ 58.7 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.99 __ 0.0 __ 2.99

____ 61-90___ 77.7 _ 68.2 _ 58.6 _____ 97 (19 1854& __ 39 (12 1843) ___ 2.76 __ 0.0 __ 2.76

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 17 1856, 16 1887)

 

AJG _51-80___ 75.8 _ 66.6 _ 57.3 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.83 __ 0.0 __ 2.83

____ 61-90___ 75.8 _ 66.6 _ 57.4 _____100 (24 1854) __ 40 (18 1855& ___ 2.69 __ 0.0 __ 2.69

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -27 1870)

 

SEP _51-80___ 67.3 _ 58.7 _ 50.0 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 3.24 __ 0.0 __ 3.24

____ 61-90___ 67.7 _ 59.1 _ 50.5 _____ 94 (5, 1854) __ 28 (27 1844&48) _ 2.89 __ 0.0 __ 2.89

 

OCT _51-80___ 54.5 _ 46.9 _ 39.3 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.12 __ 0.6 __ 2.18

____ 61-90___ 54.6 _ 47.1 _ 39.5 _____ 82 (4, 1884) __ 16 (31, 1844) ___ 2.26 __ 0.7 __ 2.33

 

NOV _51-80___ 41.4 _ 35.5 _ 29.5 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 2.67 __ 5.1 __ 3.18

____ 61-90___ 41.8 _ 35.8 _ 29.7 _____ 67 (5, 1863) ___ -5 (30, 1875) ___ 2.42 __ 5.5 __ 2.97

 

DEC _51-80___ 31.3 _ 25.1 _ 18.9 _____ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 1.53 _ 16.4 __ 3.17

____ 61-90___ 32.1 _ 25.9 _ 19.7 _____ 61 (31 1875) __ -21 (21, 1871) __ 1.41 _ 13.9 __ 2.80

 

YEAR 51-80 __ 51.8 _ 44.0 _ 36.2 __________________________________26.78 _ 74.1 _ 34.19

YEAR 61-90 __ 52.0 _ 44.1 _ 36.1 _____ 100 Aug 1854 __ -27 Jan 1859 ___25.30 _ 74.0 _ 32.70

 

_________________________________________________________________________________

 

*(as converted, appears to be 10:1 all snowfalls)

 

APR was often quite dry and in 1881 the total was 0.10" from 0.08" rain and 0.2" snow

MAY became considerably drier after a record wet 1868, 1851-68 mean 3.5" 1868-90 about 2.4"

JUN had the same trend but the wet year was 1870 (8.09") then a much drier trend developed 1871-90 (and beyond)

AUG 1876 had only trace, the only dry month (Oct 1963 almost made it).

 

10-year averages, temps and rainfall only, 1841-1850

 

 (only 4 or 5 years with snowfall data after 1844 -- it was heavy in February of 1846 and 1850,

   nothing much in the January data available, or March except 1850 .. Dec 1850 had about 30" of snow) 

 

 

JAN _________ 31.7 _ 24.5 _ 17.3 _______________________________ 2.31 (9 yrs, 1845 no data)

FEB _________ 30.1 _ 22.9 _ 15.6 _______________________________ 0.82 (9 yrs, 1845 no data)

MAR _________ 37.4 _ 29.0 _ 20.6_______________________________ 1.64 (9 yrs, 1845 no data, 1840 was 1.62")

APR _________ 49.8 _ 41.5 _ 33.2 _______________________________ 2.55 (10 yrs, 1840 was 3.46")

MAY _________ 61.5 _ 51.9 _ 42.3 _______________________________ 2.77 (10 yrs, 1840 was 4.16")
JUN _________  71.2 _ 61.3 _ 51.3 _______________________________ 3.18 (10 yrs, 1840 was 4.86")

JUL __________ 77.4 _ 66.9 _ 56.3 _______________________________ 3.76 (10 yrs, 1840 was 5.29")

AUG _________ 75.6 _ 66.1 _ 56.6 _______________________________ 3.25 (9 yrs, 1844 partial, 1840 was 2.91")

SEP _________ 66.7 _ 57.9 _ 49.0 ________________________________ 4.34 (10 yrs, 1840 1.3" but 2d msg)

OCT _________ 52.3 _ 44.6 _ 36.8 _______________________________ 3.05 (9 yrs, 1844 no data, 1840 was 1.89")

NOV _________ 42.5 _ 36.6 _ 30.7 _______________________________ 3.22 (9 yrs, 1844 no data, 1840 was 1.22")

DEC _________ 32.3 _ 26.5 _ 20.7 _______________________________ 1.61 (9 yrs, 1844 no data, 1840 was rain free)

 

YEAR ________ 52.7 _ 44.2 _ 35.7 ______________________________ 32.50 (snow ~60) (P~38.5)

 

 

NOTES -- There was no data for Jan/Feb 1840 ... 1840 temps are generally below the normals for the decade of 1841-50, except for a very warm spell in early March but they are incomplete so I don't make reference to them here ... I mention the 1840 rainfalls but they don't appear in the decade means ... Note how wet September was in the 1840s, Sep 1843 had almost ten inches of rain (9.77").

 

Factoids

-- The highest temperature in March from 1861 to 1892 was 59 F.  :)

-- The highest temperature in April from 1847 to 1894 was 73 F.

-- Novembers were coldest in the 1870s. 

 

Assessment -- The climate from 1841 to 1890 was generally drying but snowfall was becoming heavier, peaking around 1870. By the 1880s (and into the 1890s) precip was generally closer to modern normals. Temperatures were notably colder especially in the spring and autumn months. The normals in this period look like those from 100-150 miles north of Toronto nowadays, or like Toronto two weeks closer to winter in terms of a late spring and an early autumn. The differences become smaller in January and July.

 

 

 

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Maybe some wet snow or PL mixture to start today but I'm not expecting anything the stick.

Its icy everywhere right now. Temperature is -6.5C at my house, haha.

As for next week, I don't think the PV will get as far south as the models show right now. Climatology won't favor such an outcome but then again, mother nature always finds ways to twist the fundamental laws lol. If it stays a bit further North, the SE ridge will have some room to breathe and thats what we need.

Otherwise, enjoy todays piss tank man LOL.

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Its icy everywhere right now. Temperature is -6.5C at my house, haha.

As for next week, I don't think the PV will get as far south as the models show right now. Climatology won't favor such an outcome but then again, mother nature always finds ways to twist the fundamental laws lol. If it stays a bit further North, the SE ridge will have some room to breathe and thats what we need.

Otherwise, enjoy todays piss tank man LOL.

 

PV is only part of the problem. Other problem is that mountain of heights across the west deflecting any Pacific s/ws. Right now next week looks like it's a choice between frigid and dry or meh cold and dry. Maybe better luck in March.

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Maybe some wet snow or PL mixture to start today but I'm not expecting anything the stick.

With a warm layer already showing up in and around 925mb, it will be hard to get any SN to fall IMO. The HRRR does suggest that we see cooling of the BL once the onset of heavy precip occurs and it actually changes -ZR over to a +SNPL mix. Not sure I believe this given poor sfc temp initialization from the model but something to watch. I'm thinking a few pellets to start out and possibly a thin glaze over the sub 0c snowpack before we go over to a wash.

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PV is only part of the problem. Other problem is that mountain of heights across the west deflecting any Pacific s/ws. Right now next week looks like it's a choice between frigid and dry or meh cold and dry. Maybe better luck in March.

For next week, I'd take the frigid cold to bring down our monthly mean temperature. Come March 1st, and the start of meteorological spring, I'm done with the vodka cold and am all for moderate cold and snow. Minus 4 and snow would do me for the first half of March.

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RAP and HRRR are extremely aggressive with the snow this afternoon. Both are printing out over 4" for the GTA.

 

I don't buy that for a second but looking at the soundings off of the RAP there is a major dry layer between 700 and 850mb that'll have to be evaporatively cooled. Might get a decent burst right at the get go.

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Not too worried about the river flooding potential. Duration of warmth is far too short and the ice on rivers too thick to really get anything moving and jam up. Snowpack will absorb a lot of the rainfall, but street flooding and flooding of small urban waterways and streams is a possibility.

 

Overall, this event may actually set up a bigger flood in March sometime.

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