Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II

[harrisale]

Wow it feels amazing out there. I've been cheering on winter/cold to stick around but just stepping outside for 5 minutes at work has almost made me wish we could skip straight to summer. Warm air and the rays of the sun feel great.

 

Last time we felt a temperature of 5C (41F) or higher was January 13th, and I don't think the sun was out that day. Debating skipping out of work, but it looks like cloud is moving in from the west along the front.

[WestCoaster]

Just to get an idea of man-measured (non-nipher gauge) Toronto area snowfall winter-to-date:

 

Buttonville: 148.3cm (58.4")

North York: 124.8cm (49.1")

East York: 116.2cm (45.7")

 

I'd estimate the downtown number falls in between the EY and NY number. OB, is the Buttonville number representative of what your area of the city's seen or are they slant sticking?

 

I'm at 45.8"; given I'm closest to EY of those 3 listed (NE portion of Downtown/SE portion of Midtown) and we scored in mid Dec and they scored in early Feb, makes sense.

[WestCoaster]

12Z GGEM showing 35-40 mm of rain. Temps already at 41F at YYZ.

 

Snowpack is going to get completely destroyed. Very concerned about flooding at this stage.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

12Z GGEM showing 35-40 mm of rain. Temps already at 41F at YYZ.

 

Snowpack is going to get completely destroyed. Very concerned about flooding at this stage.

If it's a cold rain, I doubt if the snowpack will be totally eroded, especially in the suburbs. I haven't checked the latest euro, but yesterday it showed the suburbs with a 10" snowpack even after the warm up.

[WestCoaster]

If it's a cold rain, I doubt if the snowpack will be totally eroded, especially in the suburbs. I haven't checked the latest euro, but yesterday it showed the suburbs with a 10" snowpack even after the warm up.

 

Weather model is useless when it comes to the snowpack after an event like this. Too many factors.

 

Burbs will likely have < 6" after it's all done with. Downtown may have an inch or two.

[mississaugasnow]

Weather model is useless when it comes to the snowpack after an event like this. Too many factors.

 

Burbs will likely have < 6" after it's all done with. Downtown may have an inch or two.

That sounds about right. I doubt anyone in the GTA has 10+ inches come saturday morning. Newmarket north is another story. 

[harrisale]

Environment Canada going bullish on precip and has now hoisted rainfall warnings from Windsor to east of Toronto. Kind of surprising to see given the scope of the warned areas.

 

Gusts of 70-80km/h also mentioned.

 

 

City of Toronto
3:26 PM EST Wednesday 19 February 2014
Rainfall warning for
City of Toronto issued

Major storm bringing 25 - 50 mm of rain Thursday and Friday.

An Alberta clipper and Texas low will be tracking towards the Great Lakes where they will merge and rapidly intensify. This storm system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario along with significant precipitation and strong winds.

Rain is expected to begin over Southwestern Ontario near midday Thursday then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe Thursday afternoon reaching the Kingston area early Thursday evening. There is a chance that a brief period of snow, freezing rain or ice pellets may precede the rain as temperatures rise from just below freezing to above.

Total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm are expected over the warned areas, with the highest amounts forecast to be in the Windsor-Sarnia to Hamilton-Niagara corridor. In addition, thunderstorms will be possible over Southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.

As the rain comes to an end from west to east Friday, winds will increase out of the southwest with gusts to 70 or 80 km/h possible, particularly long the great lake shores.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems.

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I would definitely not want to be someone living close to the banks of the Rouge, Humber, Credit or Grand Rivers over the next few days. Really nasty stuff coming.

 

I'll hope that I have at least 4" remaining by Saturday, down from the 14" I had this morning.

[Snowstorms]

Euro keeps temperatures around 2-3C for the entire duration and has about 10-15mm of rain for YYZ.

Sad to see the snow melt away. Hoping my snow pack can survive till Friday evening, lol.

[BuffaloWeather]

No one posts in Upstate New York forum. And no one responds to me posts in the Great Lakes forum. I'm coming over to this forum as you guys seem to be the most inviting and closest to my region. Toronto is only an hour drive from the bridge. High Wind Watch just posted.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...MONROE...NORTHERN ERIE AND  GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND  POWERLINES...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL MAY BE  DIFFICULT IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty cool graphic.

 

[WestCoaster]

Euro keeps temperatures around 2-3C for the entire duration and has about 10-15mm of rain for YYZ.

Sad to see the snow melt away. Hoping my snow pack can survive till Friday evening, lol.

 

Euro has been such a joke this winter. GEM has been the model to watch and it's got 35-40 mm of rain. 

[WestCoaster]

Environment Canada going bullish on precip and has now hoisted rainfall warnings from Windsor to east of Toronto. Kind of surprising to see given the scope of the warned areas.

 

Gusts of 70-80km/h also mentioned.

 

Absolutely the right call by them. I'm very concerned about the flooding potential, needless to say.

[mississaugasnow]

 

No one posts in Upstate New York forum. And no one responds to me posts in the Great Lakes forum. I'm coming over to this forum as you guys seem to be the most inviting and closest to my region. Toronto is only an hour drive from the bridge. High Wind Watch just posted.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...MONROE...NORTHERN ERIE AND  GENESEE COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND  POWERLINES...AND RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL MAY BE  DIFFICULT IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

The wind and rain will be a snow eater for sure. I wonder how much lake ice disappears with the rain/warmth and wind 

[BuffaloWeather]

The wind and rain will be a snow eater for sure. I wonder how much lake ice disappears with the rain/warmth and wind 

 

It is going to quite awhile to melt all the ice on Lake Erie. Some places are 2-3 feet deep in ice. Once winter finally breaks I hope we can get some insane heat/sun to melt it away fast. I live 5-10 minutes from the Lake and I play Beach volleyball/swim there as much as I can. The beautiful thing of having a shallow lake is the fluctuations in lake temp. Lake Ontario has upwelling all summer and the beach can be very cold in the middle of summer. However with Erie the water temps on the shore during summer can rival some tropical beaches. Water temps right along the shore can range from 80-85 degrees in July/August.

[BuffaloWeather]

It has been snowing moderate/heavy here for the past hour. We hit a high of 47 degrees with sunshine than the sky opened up and temps dropped to 32 degrees in a matter of minutes. Everything is covered with snow again. INSANE!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It has been snowing moderate/heavy here for the past hour. We hit a high of 47 degrees with sunshine than the sky opened up and temps dropped to 32 degrees in a matter of minutes. Everything is covered with snow again. INSANE!

Congrats on the snow. The skies are clearing out here. Short calm before the storm.

[BuffaloWeather]

Congrats on the snow. The skies are clearing out here. Short calm before the storm.

 

Are you guys under a high wind watch as well? Looks like quite the squall line is going to work through here when that front goes through.

[Torchageddon]

Actually, a March like 1870 would make this an A++ winter in my books.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5051&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2013-12-10&cmdB1=Go&Year=1870&Month=3&Day=17

So is March 1870 Toronto's snowiest month of all time? I remember someone saying that a while back. The 25.4 cm amount on two consecutive days looks suspect, the chances of an exact same snowfall amount 2 days in a row down to the decimal is low. Hope a repeat this March happens for you guys lol.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Are you guys under a high wind watch as well? Looks like quite the squall line is going to work through here when that front goes through.

No high wind watch here. I'm guessing you're referring to tomorrow night?

[on_wx]

Are you guys under a high wind watch as well? Looks like quite the squall line is going to work through here when that front goes through.

Environment Canada doesn't issue high wind watches, only warnings, but they mention gusts up to 49mph in the rainfall warning.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I find the American National Weather Service issues more warnings and watches than Environment Canada, which is a good thing as it alerts and prepares the public.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

So is March 1870 Toronto's snowiest month of all time? I remember someone saying that a while back. The 25.4 cm amount on two consecutive days looks suspect, the chances of an exact same snowfall amount 2 days in a row down to the decimal is low. Hope a repeat this March happens for you guys lol.

It most certainly is!

[Roger Smith]

That March was part of a much heavier snowfall regime that lasted through much of the 1860s, 1870s and 1880s. I was just looking at some old Toronto data in a book (google it, sort of like an internet file printed out) and it's so old it ends in 1967 and uses Fahr and inches.

 

Anyway, every third March from 1867 to 1876 had heavy snowfalls, and March 1876 also had two heavy storms of 15-16 inches in the second half of the month, with a total of 44.1" ... to show how this was fairly normal around that time, Jan 1871 had over 40 inches, and Feb 1868 over 30 inches.

 

I think it was simply a case of a much colder climate in which the jet stream was often around where it has been this past winter. There were mild and snow-free winters too, such as 1879-80. But they were quite infrequent from about the late 1840s to the late 1880s. The weather records from the 1890s start to look a lot more like the 20th century than most of the 19th century years.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

That March was part of a much heavier snowfall regime that lasted through much of the 1860s, 1870s and 1880s. I was just looking at some old Toronto data in a book (google it, sort of like an internet file printed out) and it's so old it ends in 1967 and uses Fahr and inches.

 

Anyway, every third March from 1867 to 1876 had heavy snowfalls, and March 1876 also had two heavy storms of 15-16 inches in the second half of the month, with a total of 44.1" ... to show how this was fairly normal around that time, Jan 1871 had over 40 inches, and Feb 1868 over 30 inches.

 

I think it was simply a case of a much colder climate in which the jet stream was often around where it has been this past winter. There were mild and snow-free winters too, such as 1879-80. But they were quite infrequent from about the late 1840s to the late 1880s. The weather records from the 1890s start to look a lot more like the 20th century than most of the 19th century years.

Roger, what is the name of the book you were referencing?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Is there still a chance of ice pellets/freezing rain at the start of the storm tomorrow?

[blizzardof96]

Is there still a chance of ice pellets/freezing rain at the start of the storm tomorrow?

There definitely is a chance, as the RGEM and NAM hires suite have been suggesting for several runs now. I don't agree with much if any ice accumulation over the GTA as these models are probably underdoing sfc temps and WAA given the mediocre sfc high over Que.

[Roger Smith]

Ze book is an official publication of the "Canadian Meteorological Service" which predated the Atmospheric Environment Service" which was what they called EC back in the 1970s. It is entitled

 

DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA

 

TORONTO (315 BLOOR ST W) ONTARIO

MARCH 1840 - DECEMBER 1967

 

and it was published in 1970 when I obtained my copy (I have it in a binder because it has fallen apart under the strain of constant use, sort of like myself)

 

I also have the annual summaries, also in Fahr and inches, from 1968, 1969 and 1970 which have the same titles except that they read ANNUAL SUMMARY etc. So there should be a copy of this in the AES library. I checked some data against the computerized archives on the EC website and they have taken it all with the metric conversions, no changes that I could see anyway (obviously I haven't checked every day but I checked some extremes and one month of routine data to see, it all looks like a straight conversion).

 

I was perhaps the only pre-internet weather weenie and went over this book with colour coded highlights so I have such arcane things as daily temperature records to 1901 and various two-day snowfall totals that I figured were all one storm in most cases. Of course this is all available on line so there's nothing hidden away in here, the same years are missing from snowfall in the 1840s etc etc.

 

Anyway, I am going to work up a set of normals for 1851-1880 just for fun. Will post those in a while. The most obvious changes are in spring and autumn.

 

Speaking of heavy snowfall, there was 18.0" on Feb 20, 1846 and 4.0" more on the 21st. The monthly total was 46.1" all but 0.6" fell between the 11th and 21st. Looks like one storm 20th-21st as the HI/LO are 30,7 then 30,23 (F). Three record lows followed at end of the month, it was -12 F on the 26th, -16 F on the 27th and -17 F on the 28th. Highs were in the teens.

 

(edit after checking ... there was no measured rainfall in Feb 1846, just the 46.1" of snow).

 

Once upon a time when the CMS headquarters was located at 315 Bloor St W the archives were in the basement there and I had a chance to look at the original records from the early years. There was some stuff in those that didn't make the book, for example, some record of a 12 inch snowfall at the end of October 1844 (that appears in some old climate summaries not in a daily journal from 1844).

 

Going to work on those 19th century normals now, look for them (post 756 will build towards this).

[Snowstorms]

There definitely is a chance, as the RGEM and NAM hires suite have been suggesting for several runs now. I don't agree with much if any ice accumulation over the GTA as these models are probably underdoing sfc temps and WAA given the mediocre sfc high over Que.

 

At best I see the possibility for some ZR/PL for an hour or two in the GTA before it changes over to rain. I expect 15-25mm of rain in the GTA with local amounts near 30mm. We should build back into a cold regime this weekend and it looks to continue through early March. This is a Winter that doesn't want to lose its grip, lol. 

 

With the PV lurking around in the area, pattern doesn't seem supportive of large storms given the zonal look.  Possibilities do lurk around Feb 25-28th and again around March 2-5 however.  With the Spring climatology settling in, these storms have the potential at being the perfect track for the GTA if everything else lines up. Agree?

 

If we don't get squat what a waste of a ****ing cold pattern again! 

[blizzardof96]

At best I see the possibility for some ZR/PL for an hour or two in the GTA before it changes over to rain. I expect 15-25mm of rain in the GTA with local amounts near 30mm. We should build back into a cold regime this weekend and it looks to continue through early March. This is a Winter that doesn't want to lose its grip, lol. 

 

With the PV lurking around in the area, pattern doesn't seem supportive of large storms given the zonal look.  Possibilities do lurk around Feb 25-28th and again around March 2-5 however.  With the Spring climatology settling in, these storms have the potential at being the perfect track for the GTA if everything else lines up. Agree?

 

If we don't get squat what a waste of a ****ing cold pattern again! 

Should have a +PNA/ +NAO pattern with east pac/african forcing from the weekend through about March 1st which means that the storm track should stay predominantly to our south and east. I think once we get into the beginning of march the mean trough has the potential to shift west along with a retrograding NE pac cut off high/wave break. Even if the +PNA pattern continues the PV should retreat some allowing the Se ridge to expand and usher in a flow more favourable for moisture and storminess. Weeklies continue to look tasty well into march if you want cold/snow threats.