Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 OB needs to move east to WATERTOWN,NY, they went below -25 15 times so far this winter with 8 of them being -30c or lower. Oh and did i say they received 380cm so far this winter.. Well, I'm going to make a prediction that, despite the cold February, Toronto will just miss having the coldest February since 1979 due to the warm-up this week. Our mean is currently -9.9c and I expect the warmer days and nights this week to raise that to at least -6c. The cold the final week of February doesn't look cold enough to lower it back below -8.6c by the end of the month. We'll see. May end up as just the coldest February in 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 As per the 12z GFS it is looking ugly for southern Ontario this upcoming Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain with flooding in some areas. A true snow eating system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As per the 12z GFS it is looking ugly for southern Ontario this upcoming Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain with flooding in some areas. A true snow eating system. And the secondary Low models had earlier isnt gaining much confidence either. As we've seen all season, models are killing of the S/W and becoming to progressive. As for tomorrow, most models agree on a general 7-12cm in the GTA. Ratios and deformation bands could help out like they did during the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Tonight and tomorrow, would agree with much of what I have read here, 10-15 cm potential for Toronto and most of s.w. Ontario. Wednesday a rather weak system following along tops this up with 3-5 cm additional. Thursday into early Friday, horrible thaw, 20-30 mm rain, 10-13 C max, people around Ontario would be very smart to get on their flat roofs Wed afternoon and clear snow because the saturated snowload will cause structural collapse potential. Large parking lots will become small lakes. I don't think the event has enough duration to send many watersheds into flood stage but smallest creeks could see ice jam problems. The main problem would appear to be urban ponding and it may be quite severe. By mid-day Friday and into the weekend, temps back to slightly below freezing daytime, not cold enough to freeze the ponding water but could create nasty conditions on hilly side streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The forecast for Goderich ON was -27ºC overnight which is incredible (on the shoreline). Mine was -20ºC and it got down to -28ºC like the rest in SON!! Windchill was -32C at 5:00 am. Warmed up 7ºC in 1 hour after that minimum. Its now -8ºC which means it warmed 20ºC in 9 hours which might be the most for 2014. This is the 4th time this winter it got down that far. Goderich got down to that -28ºC value which was everywhere it seems starting at 3:00 am and went to 7:00 am with the lowest windchill being -34C! That's the coldest temp. I've ever seen for them, GL freeze over did it. -28. Experienced my first free-for-all cold temp seeking shelter at a 24 hr Tim Hortons with 30 other people trying to flag down any car that looked like a cab. Waited in the crowd about half an hour, and a United pulled up. Got that cab somehow after a big fight. Such a weird moment. I don't know what you just said here. You were outside in the middle of the night and then found a Tim Hortons for shelter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As per the 12z GFS it is looking ugly for southern Ontario this upcoming Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain with flooding in some areas. A true snow eating system. That's why I went X-country skiing today. The facility was packed with people, but the conditions were terrific and a 20% discount to boot. Off to TO tomorrow for the car show, so am having mixed feelings about getting snow tonight. Will make for a miserable drive but will add to the seasonal totals.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Both the latest HRRR and RAP are coming in wetter than previous runs and are now showing 10-15cm in the GTA by tomorrow afternoon. In comparison, EC is forecasting ~7cm in Toronto by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Tonight and tomorrow, would agree with much of what I have read here, 10-15 cm potential for Toronto and most of s.w. Ontario. Wednesday a rather weak system following along tops this up with 3-5 cm additional. Thursday into early Friday, horrible thaw, 20-30 mm rain, 10-13 C max, people around Ontario would be very smart to get on their flat roofs Wed afternoon and clear snow because the saturated snowload will cause structural collapse potential. Large parking lots will become small lakes. I don't think the event has enough duration to send many watersheds into flood stage but smallest creeks could see ice jam problems. The main problem would appear to be urban ponding and it may be quite severe. By mid-day Friday and into the weekend, temps back to slightly below freezing daytime, not cold enough to freeze the ponding water but could create nasty conditions on hilly side streets. It will be interesting to see how much of our snowpack survives. The 12z Euro only has us going up to 39F/3C and has us with a 10" snowpack on the 25th, after the warm up and the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 What time is the snow forecast to start in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 What time is the snow forecast to start in Toronto? Couple hours. Latest HRRR with a 6"+ blob right over your house. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Couple hours. Latest HRRR with a 6"+ blob right over your house. lol. Looks to be a quick thump of snow. I'm hearing most of it might be down by 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thunder snow reported across SE MI. Any chance some of that makes it up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thunder snow reported across SE MI. Any chance some of that makes it up here? Here's hoping the storm doesn't "lose its thunder" by the time it reaches us. Sorry, couldn't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thunder snow reported across SE MI. Any chance some of that makes it up here? SPC plots not showing a lot of elevated cape/strong lapse rates/negative EPVg (all convective parameters you'd look for) across SE MI. TSSN seems to be forming based on strong frontogenesis. So long as that frontogenetic forcing doesn't weaken too much as it moves in, we stand a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 500 and 850mb lows now closed off. The mid level disturbance continues to strengthen per SPC meso and sattelite OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 500 and 850mb lows now closed off. The mid level disturbance continues to strengthen per SPC meso and sattelite OBS. With that being said, 10-15cm for the GTA seems like a reasonable call atm. Hopefully it doesn't transfer quickly like the RGEM showed but at this point in time, I don't see any surface evidence for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 SPC plots not showing a lot of elevated cape/strong lapse rates/negative EPVg (all convective parameters you'd look for) across SE MI. TSSN seems to be forming based on strong frontogenesis. So long as that frontogenetic forcing doesn't weaken too much as it moves in, we stand a shot. According to the 18z NAM, frontogenesis is expected to strenghten as the upper low shifts east tonight. Seems possible that we do see some isolated TSSN reports despite the lack of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 With that being said, 10-15cm for the GTA seems like a reasonable call atm. Hopefully it doesn't transfer quickly like the RGEM showed but at this point in time, I don't see any surface evidence for that. It's a potent little disturbance but the quick movement and lack of deep moisture I think is going to preclude widespread 15cm amounts/local amounts greater than 15cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Exeter/ KC radars are starting to fill in rapidly. Some 25dbz+ returns bowling east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's a potent little disturbance but the quick movement and lack of deep moisture I think is going to preclude widespread 15cm amounts/local amounts greater than 15cm. Yeah im leaning closer to 10cm rather than 15cm, but the latest HRRR seems quite bullish with its amounts. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. When you coming back to Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah im leaning closer to 10cm rather than 15cm, but the latest HRRR seems quite bullish with its amounts. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight. When you coming back to Toronto? 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Exeter/ KC radars are starting to fill in rapidly. Some 25dbz+ returns bowling east. Wouldn't be surprised if we go from nothing to AOB 1km visibility in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hearing reports on twitter of CG lightning just SE of windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thunder snow reported across SE MI. Any chance some of that makes it up here? Hearing reports on twitter of CG lightning just SE of windsor. Yep its showing up on the Environment Canada lightning detection map: https://weather.gc.ca/lightning/index_e.html?id=ONT#mapTop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like the snow has reached Kitchener. Should be here by 11pm. Temperature is now up to -5c at my place. Doubt this will be a high ratio event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like the snow has reached Kitchener. Should be here by 11pm. Temperature is now up to -5c at my place. Doubt this will be a high ratio event. Cobb techniques off BUFKIT look like a 12-13:1 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Bet you're glad to be home for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Bet you're glad to be home for this one! Would have preferred Feb 5 but this'll have to do. Also would have preferred a daytime event because I'm exhausted and may not make it deep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Must be a lot of virga falling around Hamilton/Burlington. Radar returns look good, but the traffic cameras show no snow falling yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Nice returns overhead but barely a flake has fallen. Wind ramping though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.