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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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The latest Euro shows 8-12cm for the GTA. GGEM/GFS show similar amounts as well.

Those amounts are not exactly accurate. The latest euro looks beautiful with a bowling ball type track from south of chicago to fort erie and up towards rochester. Really nice lift on the eastern side of the LP centre. The euro has 6-7" throughout the gta, with thermals solidely below freezing through the duration. Track of the low is going to be key, and it should take a while longer for models to agree on track. I do think areas to the ENE of the low could end up with 4-8" from this, wherever that band sets up.

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Those amounts are not exactly accurate. The latest euro looks beautiful with a bowling ball type track from south of chicago to fort erie and up towards rochester. Really nice lift on the eastern side of the LP centre. The euro has 6-7" throughout the gta, with thermals solidely below freezing through the duration. Track of the low is going to be key, and it should take a while longer for models to agree on track. I do think areas to the ENE of the low could end up with 6-10" from this, wherever that band sets up.

Yeah track is key with this event. Enough cold air in place out ahead of the storm and that should make way for some decent ratios and potential deformation bands. Still 3 days out but chances are looking good.

Would be a nice storm prior to the warm-up mid-late next week.

Whats your thoughts thru Mid March?

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Our emails resulted in a partial success. The data for Feb 1 was loaded for downtown Toronto. Hopefully the rest to follow.

Just saw that. Nice! If we add the snow from Jan 31, the total for the Feb 1 storm is 8.8 cm. The observer most likely took the Jan 31 measurement late in the morning on Feb 1 (around 10-11 am).

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Whats your thoughts thru Mid March?

I think that from the 25th onwards we get into a much colder pattern, with the trough axis over the eastern lakes. It will likely be a pretty progressive pattern, with the absence of any WB nao blocking so we shouldn't stay locked into a nw flow pattern for too long. By the beginning of march the pattern looks like it starts to get more interesting as we get a STJ kick and date line forcing tries to show up again, which helps keep the PNA positive in the means. Expecting a drop in the EPO once we get into week two of march as the ridge axis retros quite a bit and SE ridge flexes its muscles and fordes the trough axis west towards lake MI. Euro weeklies also have this exciting look.

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I think that from the 25th onwards we get into a much colder pattern, with the trough axis over the eastern lakes. It will likely be a pretty progressive pattern, with the absence of any WB nao blocking so we shouldn't stay locked into a nw flow pattern for too long. By the beginning of march the pattern looks like it starts to get more interesting as we get a STJ kick and date line forcing tries to show up again, which helps keep the PNA positive in the means. Expecting a drop in the EPO once we get into week two of march as the ridge axis retros quite a bit and SE ridge flexes its muscles and fordes the trough axis west towards lake MI. Euro weeklies also have this exciting look.

Blizz, you know how I'm fascinated by data and statistics. Do you think the cold coming the last week of the month will be enough to have Pearson finish up with a monthly mean of minus 9 or lower? I know this week's warm-up will cut down some of the month's cold anomalies. If we finish colder than a mean of -8.6 Celsius, it will have been the coldest February since 1979, beating heavy hitters like 2007 and 1994.

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Sounds about right. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small stripe of 15cm but it's too early to try and pin that down. Of course, if the GFS turns out to be correct, we'll be lucky to see 5cm, but I'm confident at this point that it's wrong.

The European seems to be calling for a fair amount of snow or ice later next week. The warm-up really seems to be getting blunted.

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Sounds about right. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small stripe of 15cm but it's too early to try and pin that down. Of course, if the GFS turns out to be correct, we'll be lucky to see 5cm, but I'm confident at this point that it's wrong.

Thinking 3-5" for the GTA at this point, with perhaps more off to the WSW. Few positives im noticing on the models is a fairly potent disturbance bowling pretty much due east, with a potentially closed contour at H5/H7. Also seeing signs on the higher res models that we see some upsloping with a SE flow in advance of the system. If the vort manages to keep its composure a little bit longer then modelled could be looking at higher total. Should be good for a quick burst of SN/+SN at the least if the euro/nam verify.

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I think that from the 25th onwards we get into a much colder pattern, with the trough axis over the eastern lakes. It will likely be a pretty progressive pattern, with the absence of any WB nao blocking so we shouldn't stay locked into a nw flow pattern for too long. By the beginning of march the pattern looks like it starts to get more interesting as we get a STJ kick and date line forcing tries to show up again, which helps keep the PNA positive in the means. Expecting a drop in the EPO once we get into week two of march as the ridge axis retros quite a bit and SE ridge flexes its muscles and fordes the trough axis west towards lake MI. Euro weeklies also have this exciting look.

 

Amazing analysis, I agree completely! At this point I'm currently watching the Stratosphere to see if we can build some more blocking on the Atlantic side. What we don't need is an overly positive PNA as it would cut off the Gulf and we'd be left with a continuous clipper pattern like we saw last month.

 

Having a Weak SE ridge, neutral PNA/-EPO would be ideal for our area. Without the Atlantic cooperating this season, storms haven't had ample time to develop and phase properly. 

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-20 again. Sigh.

 

We reached -20 here too at 2 am.  Quite a few mornings below -20  this winter which in the past few seasons might be reached once or twice during the winter if at all.    The deep snowpack and enduring snowcover which we have had here since Nov 23rd is a throwback to the winters of my youth fron the 70's.

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SREF plumes are starting to come into better agreement now. Strong clustering between ~3.8" and 6.5". They have been very good this winter so feeling pretty good about the 3-6" range. Farnell agree's.

Also looking to get quite cold tonight in Toronto. Wind is right out of the north, Toronto's second coldest wind direction after the northeasterly.

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The pattern between ~144-168hrs looks pretty interesting for S On, with the ridge axis centered along the west coast and energy dropping in from the plains. There is also some blocking up towards the baffin islands which helps slow down the flow quite a bit. Worried that the BZ does set up a bit east of where we want it in an ideal setup, but plenty of time for things to get sorted out.

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The pattern between ~144-168hrs looks pretty interesting for S On, with the ridge axis centered along the west coast and energy dropping in from the plains. There is also some blocking up towards the baffin islands which helps slow down the flow quite a bit. Worried that the BZ does set up a bit east of where we want it in an ideal setup, but plenty of time for things to get sorted out.

 

Yes, I'm intrigued by it as well. Perhaps we can create a pseudo -NAO block across Baffin Island which should help drive in some cooler anomalies and keep the effects of the SE ridge further south. Alot of potential exists but timing is key. The Gulf is wide open for moisture and with little troughing in the region, this storm has potential to deepen rapidly but thats way out. 

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-28. Experienced my first free-for-all cold temp seeking shelter at a 24 hr Tim Hortons with 30 other people trying to flag down any car that looked like a cab. Waited in the crowd about half an hour, and a United pulled up. Got that cab somehow after a big fight. Such a weird moment.

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-28. Experienced my first free-for-all cold temp seeking shelter at a 24 hr Tim Hortons with 30 other people trying to flag down any car that looked like a cab. Waited in the crowd about half an hour, and a United pulled up. Got that cab somehow after a big fight. Such a weird moment.

Nice.

Another frigid night here as well - currently -27.   OB needs to move west away from Toronto if he is really looking for cold weather and low temps this winter..................

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-28. Experienced my first free-for-all cold temp seeking shelter at a 24 hr Tim Hortons with 30 other people trying to flag down any car that looked like a cab. Waited in the crowd about half an hour, and a United pulled up. Got that cab somehow after a big fight. Such a weird moment.

No kidding it's down right frigid out there! car thermometer was reading -26C when i left Fort Erie 20 mins ago, it's a little bit warmer here in buffalo only -22. :arrowhead:

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Nice.

Another frigid night here as well - currently -27.   OB needs to move west away from Toronto if he is really looking for cold weather and low temps this winter..................

OB needs to move east to WATERTOWN,NY, they went below -25 15 times so far this winter with 8 of them being -30c or lower. Oh and did i say they received 380cm so far this winter.. :snowing:

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OB needs to move east to WATERTOWN,NY, they went below -25 15 times so far this winter with 8 of them being -30c or lower. Oh and did i say they received 380cm so far this winter.. :snowing:

 

Yeah, usually upstate NY blows this part of Ont. out of the water in terms of snow and cold.  You better love winter if you are moving to that region.  We have probably maxed out on low temp today.  It dropped another degree to -28. :arrowhead:

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