Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ah, nice catch. And of course, Feb 27-28, 1984...one of Toronto's big dogs. Apparently a big dog storm for Ottawa as well. Pierre Trudeau supposedly took a walk in it and decided to resign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Apparently a big dog storm for Ottawa as well. Pierre Trudeau supposedly took a walk in it and decided to resign. Wow, no idea that was the storm where Trudeau took his famous walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Day 10 with no update out of the downtown Toronto station. Had to drop them from my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm so sick of this cold. I want a thaw NOW. Picked up 3 cm yesterday. Snowed the entire day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm so sick of this cold. I want a thaw NOW. Picked up 3 cm yesterday. Snowed the entire day. You're likely going to get it next week, but I'd rather it held off until March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You're likely going to get it next week, but I'd rather it held off until March 1st. Would be nice to get a classic cold and snowy March. Its been almost 3 years since we saw one. I cant wait for spring and summer though. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You're likely going to get it next week, but I'd rather it held off until March 1st. Mean temp at YYZ so far this Feb is -9.7c. It would have to moderate to -5c to not make this winter the coldest in 20 years. Any type of incremental warming to the mean temp is not going to happen until after the 16th or 17th of the month, at the earliest. And by that time the cold part of the month will simply have too much weight to be overcome when computing the mean, unless we get day after day of highs approaching 10c to finish the month. You're worrying unnecessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mean temp at YYZ so far this Feb is -9.7c. It would have to moderate to -5c to not make this winter the coldest in 20 years. Any type of incremental warming to the mean temp is not going to happen until after the 16th or 17th of the month, at the earliest. And by that time the cold part of the month will simply have too much weight to be overcome when computing the mean, unless we get day after day of highs approaching 10c to finish the month. You're worrying unnecessarily. Good points all. Plus, it looks like the warm-up will only last a few days before below average temperatures move back in by the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good points all. Plus, it looks like the warm-up will only last a few days before below average temperatures move back in by the 24th. The only thing a torch around the 20th would preclude would be for this winter to rival or exceed 1993-94. We have a chance as it is, but it'll have to stay cold the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The only thing a torch around the 20th would preclude would be for this winter to rival or exceed 1993-94. We have a chance as it is, but it'll have to stay cold the rest of the month. Even if we don't surpass 1993-1994, this would end up as the second coldest of my life in Toronto which is quite the feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With a mean temp of -7.4c thus far at YYZ, the winter of 2013-14 is blowing away recent "cold" winters by a decent margin. 2010-11 -5.4c 2008-09 -5.2c 2004-05 -4.5c 2002-03 -5.8c 2013-14 is actually tied with 1993-94 right now, but we'd have to avoid any moderation this week/next week to be there in the end. Looking at the data on the Environment Canada climate data page, there is a discrepancy in the mean temperature at YYZ for December 1993. The daily data report shows a mean of -1.4C, but the yearly report, which shows the breakdown by month, shows -2.7C. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-12&Year=1993&Month=12&Day=1 It appears there is some missing data on the daily report. I can say from personal experience that most, if not all, of the missing days were very cold, especially towards the end of the month. I think the yearly report includes the "missing" data, not shown on the daily report, into the calculation. As a result, the mean temperature for the winter of 1993-94 at YYZ is actually -7.9C. Unless the rest of this month is super cold, which is unlikely, it looks like we'll have a difficult time surpassing 93-94. But nonetheless this cold winter is pretty darn impressive by today's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Day 10 with no update out of the downtown Toronto station. Had to drop them from my sig. Hopefully the observer at the U of T station updates soon. The first thing I do when I wake up each morning is go the EC climate data page to check if the downtown data has been updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looking at the data on the Environment Canada climate data page, there is a discrepancy in the mean temperature at YYZ for December 1993. The daily data report shows a mean of -1.4C, but the yearly report, which shows the breakdown by month, shows -2.7C. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-12&Year=1993&Month=12&Day=1 It appears there is some missing data on the daily report. I can say from personal experience that most, if not all, of the missing days were very cold, especially towards the end of the month. I think the yearly report includes the "missing" data, not shown on the daily report, into the calculation. As a result, the mean temperature for the winter of 1993-94 at YYZ is actually -7.9C. Unless the rest of this month is super cold, which is unlikely, it looks like we'll have a difficult time surpassing 93-94. But nonetheless this cold winter is pretty darn impressive by today's standards. I remember 1993-94 as well and, you're right, the closing days of December 1993 were very cold, probably one of the most epic pattern changes of recent decades. Still, I think we should finish up the coldest since that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 OT but how do I view people's signatures? I disabled them a long time ago and then there was a board upgrade and I can't find the option now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 OT but how do I view people's signatures? I disabled them a long time ago and then there was a board upgrade and I can't find the option now. Go to your profile, and then select "ignore preferences" on the left side. There should be a checkbox for signatures there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I remember 1993-94 as well and, you're right, the closing days of December 1993 were very cold, probably one of the most epic pattern changes of recent decades. Still, I think we should finish up the coldest since that winter. I'm confident this will end up as the coldest winter since 1993-94. More amazing is that YYZ has had at least 1 cm on the ground since Dec. 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 64 days and counting of 1cm+ on the ground at EC's north york and pearson stations. Anybody know what the record is for consecutive days with snowcover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 64 days and counting of 1cm+ on the ground at EC's north york and pearson stations. Anybody know what the record is for consecutive days with snowcover? Environment Canada has been keeping snow-depth records since the mid-1950s. The longest stretch for consecutive days with snow cover in the GTA is 104 days (Dec 6, 2000 to March 19, 2001), set at the downtown Toronto station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Environment Canada has been keeping snow-depth records since the mid-1950s. The longest stretch for consecutive days with snow cover in the GTA is 104 days (Dec 6, 2000 to March 19, 2001), set at the downtown Toronto station. I think we should take some guesses to see when the consecutive days end at pearson. Ill say March 11th. and for fun Ill say my piles in the shade make it to early april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm starting to doubt that we make it down to the forecast low of minus 20 given the cloud cover seems to be hanging on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS has 2 clippers later this week, lol. Maybe 5cm by Monday Morning? This isnt the first time we've seen such a dull pattern this season, lol. Hopefully we get some favorable opportunities soon. Need atleast another 30-50cm to consider this an A+ Winter. Then I'll be ready for Spring! Beach time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The GFS has 2 clippers later this week, lol. Maybe 5cm by Monday Morning? This isnt the first time we've seen such a dull pattern this season, lol. Hopefully we get some favorable opportunities soon. Need atleast another 30-50cm to consider this an A+ Winter. Then I'll be ready for Spring! Beach time! Given the persistent snow cover and couple of decent storms, I could give this winter a B+/-A if YYZ gets to about 140cm and downtown Toronto gets to 160cm. Can't go any higher because it would dilute the grade of a winter like 2007-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Given the persistent snow cover and couple of decent storms, I could give this winter a B+/-A if YYZ gets to about 140cm and downtown Toronto gets to 160cm. Can't go any higher because it would dilute the grade of a winter like 2007-08. Unless we get some decent storms in the picture, that seems impossible lol. As of Feb 9, YYZ stands at 96cm for the season. We need atleast 40cm from now till April if we want to average above normal snow wise. If we can maintain a healthy snow-pack (>2cm) till mid March and we get a reasonable storm or two in-between I'd give this Winter an A+. Lets see what transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unless we get some decent storms in the picture, that seems impossible lol. As of Feb 9, YYZ stands at 96cm for the season. We need atleast 40cm from now till April if we want to average above normal snow wise. If we can maintain a healthy snow-pack (>2cm) till mid March and we get a reasonable storm or two in-between I'd give this Winter an A+. Lets see what transpires. I don't think it's that onerous of an expectation. YYZ averages about 36cm from this point on. So 44cm is only a little above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FYI.... On December 13, 2013 YYZ...6.4cm YEG...74.4cm +68.0cm difference On February 10, 2014 YYZ...96cm YEG...105cm +9.0cm difference Closed the gap nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 0z GFS is finally showing the storm on the 18th that the Canadian model was hinting at. Looks like snow and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hopefully the observer at the U of T station updates soon. The first thing I do when I wake up each morning is go the EC climate data page to check if the downtown data has been updated. Still nothing. Not sure what the problem is this year. Seems the lags between updates is much longer than in recent years. Maybe the guy's on another vacation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still nothing. Not sure what the problem is this year. Seems the lags between updates is much longer than in recent years. Maybe the guy's on another vacation? I'll give it a few more days before I inquire what's going on. My guess is that the observer is a U of T student and that he's probably focused on mid-term exams now. Hopefully with Reading Week approaching, he will have the time to enter his observations into EC's climate data network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The cold has certainly underperformed. Our forecast low last night was -20. We made it to minus 13. London, Ontario's forecast high today was minus 15. They've already surpassed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think we should take some guesses to see when the consecutive days end at pearson. Ill say March 11th. and for fun Ill say my piles in the shade make it to early april I'm going to say March 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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