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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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You're likely going to get it next week, but I'd rather it held off until March 1st.

 

Mean temp at YYZ so far this Feb is -9.7c. It would have to moderate to -5c to not make this winter the coldest in 20 years. Any type of incremental warming to the mean temp is not going to happen until after the 16th or 17th of the month, at the earliest. And by that time the cold part of the month will simply have too much weight to be overcome when computing the mean, unless we get day after day of highs approaching 10c to finish the month.

 

You're worrying unnecessarily.

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Mean temp at YYZ so far this Feb is -9.7c. It would have to moderate to -5c to not make this winter the coldest in 20 years. Any type of incremental warming to the mean temp is not going to happen until after the 16th or 17th of the month, at the earliest. And by that time the cold part of the month will simply have too much weight to be overcome when computing the mean, unless we get day after day of highs approaching 10c to finish the month.

 

You're worrying unnecessarily.

Good points all. Plus, it looks like the warm-up will only last a few days before below average temperatures move back in by the 24th.

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Good points all. Plus, it looks like the warm-up will only last a few days before below average temperatures move back in by the 24th.

 

The only thing a torch around the 20th would preclude would be for this winter to rival or exceed 1993-94. We have a chance as it is, but it'll have to stay cold the rest of the month.

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The only thing a torch around the 20th would preclude would be for this winter to rival or exceed 1993-94. We have a chance as it is, but it'll have to stay cold the rest of the month.

Even if we don't surpass 1993-1994, this would end up as the second coldest of my life in Toronto which is quite the feat.

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With a mean temp of -7.4c thus far at YYZ, the winter of 2013-14 is blowing away recent "cold" winters by a decent margin.

2010-11 -5.4c

2008-09 -5.2c

2004-05 -4.5c

2002-03 -5.8c

2013-14 is actually tied with 1993-94 right now, but we'd have to avoid any moderation this week/next week to be there in the end.

Looking at the data on the Environment Canada climate data page, there is a discrepancy in the mean temperature at YYZ for December 1993. The daily data report shows a mean of -1.4C, but the yearly report, which shows the breakdown by month, shows -2.7C.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-12&Year=1993&Month=12&Day=1

It appears there is some missing data on the daily report. I can say from personal experience that most, if not all, of the missing days were very cold, especially towards the end of the month. I think the yearly report includes the "missing" data, not shown on the daily report, into the calculation.

As a result, the mean temperature for the winter of 1993-94 at YYZ is actually -7.9C. Unless the rest of this month is super cold, which is unlikely, it looks like we'll have a difficult time surpassing 93-94. But nonetheless this cold winter is pretty darn impressive by today's standards.

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Looking at the data on the Environment Canada climate data page, there is a discrepancy in the mean temperature at YYZ for December 1993. The daily data report shows a mean of -1.4C, but the yearly report, which shows the breakdown by month, shows -2.7C.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-12&Year=1993&Month=12&Day=1

It appears there is some missing data on the daily report. I can say from personal experience that most, if not all, of the missing days were very cold, especially towards the end of the month. I think the yearly report includes the "missing" data, not shown on the daily report, into the calculation.

As a result, the mean temperature for the winter of 1993-94 at YYZ is actually -7.9C. Unless the rest of this month is super cold, which is unlikely, it looks like we'll have a difficult time surpassing 93-94. But nonetheless this cold winter is pretty darn impressive by today's standards.

I remember 1993-94 as well and, you're right, the closing days of December 1993 were very cold, probably one of the most epic pattern changes of recent decades. Still, I think we should finish up the coldest since that winter.

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I remember 1993-94 as well and, you're right, the closing days of December 1993 were very cold, probably one of the most epic pattern changes of recent decades. Still, I think we should finish up the coldest since that winter.

I'm confident this will end up as the coldest winter since 1993-94. More amazing is that YYZ has had at least 1 cm on the ground since Dec. 9th.

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64 days and counting of 1cm+ on the ground at EC's north york and pearson stations. Anybody know what the record is for consecutive days with snowcover?

Environment Canada has been keeping snow-depth records since the mid-1950s. The longest stretch for consecutive days with snow cover in the GTA is 104 days (Dec 6, 2000 to March 19, 2001), set at the downtown Toronto station.

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Environment Canada has been keeping snow-depth records since the mid-1950s. The longest stretch for consecutive days with snow cover in the GTA is 104 days (Dec 6, 2000 to March 19, 2001), set at the downtown Toronto station.

I think we should take some guesses to see when the consecutive days end at pearson. Ill say March 11th. and for fun Ill say my piles in the shade make it to early april 

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The GFS has 2 clippers later this week, lol. Maybe 5cm by Monday Morning? 

 

This isnt the first time we've seen such a dull pattern this season, lol. Hopefully we get some favorable opportunities soon. Need atleast another 30-50cm to consider this an A+ Winter. Then I'll be ready for Spring! Beach time! :D

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The GFS has 2 clippers later this week, lol. Maybe 5cm by Monday Morning? 

 

This isnt the first time we've seen such a dull pattern this season, lol. Hopefully we get some favorable opportunities soon. Need atleast another 30-50cm to consider this an A+ Winter. Then I'll be ready for Spring! Beach time! :D

 

Given the persistent snow cover and couple of decent storms, I could give this winter a B+/-A if YYZ gets to about 140cm and downtown Toronto gets to 160cm. Can't go any higher because it would dilute the grade of a winter like 2007-08.

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Given the persistent snow cover and couple of decent storms, I could give this winter a B+/-A if YYZ gets to about 140cm and downtown Toronto gets to 160cm. Can't go any higher because it would dilute the grade of a winter like 2007-08.

 

Unless we get some decent storms in the picture, that seems impossible lol. As of Feb 9, YYZ stands at 96cm for the season. We need atleast 40cm from now till April if we want to average above normal snow wise.  If we can maintain a healthy snow-pack (>2cm) till mid March and we get a reasonable storm or two in-between I'd give this Winter an A+. Lets see what transpires. 

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Unless we get some decent storms in the picture, that seems impossible lol. As of Feb 9, YYZ stands at 96cm for the season. We need atleast 40cm from now till April if we want to average above normal snow wise.  If we can maintain a healthy snow-pack (>2cm) till mid March and we get a reasonable storm or two in-between I'd give this Winter an A+. Lets see what transpires. 

 

I don't think it's that onerous of an expectation. YYZ averages about 36cm from this point on. So 44cm is only a little above normal.

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Hopefully the observer at the U of T station updates soon. The first thing I do when I wake up each morning is go the EC climate data page to check if the downtown data has been updated.

 

Still nothing. Not sure what the problem is this year. Seems the lags between updates is much longer than in recent years. Maybe the guy's on another vacation?

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Still nothing. Not sure what the problem is this year. Seems the lags between updates is much longer than in recent years. Maybe the guy's on another vacation?

I'll give it a few more days before I inquire what's going on. My guess is that the observer is a U of T student and that he's probably focused on mid-term exams now. Hopefully with Reading Week approaching, he will have the time to enter his observations into EC's climate data network.

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