Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II

[snowstormcanuck]

Looks like we have probably peaked for snow depth this season. Would be surprised if we top our current depth of 17" pending the late week warm up. Great lakes ice cover is at 77.4% currently. Considering peak coverage usually occurs on march 9th we have a decent shot at getting close to the 78-79 record of 94.7%.

 

I assume that 17" figure is iyby? Maybe you can add an inch or two today.

 

And boy is any "warm up" for late week/next week looking less and less impressive which each model run. It's not just the GFS. Even the EURO has backed off the last two runs or so.

[blizzardof96]

I assume that 17" figure is iyby? Maybe you can add an inch or two today.

 

And boy is any "warm up" for late week/next week looking less and less impressive which each model run. It's not just the GFS. Even the EURO has backed off the last two runs or so.

Very true. The system around hour 120 is also backing further NW with each run, although it makes you wonder if this is the left end of the envelope considering the 0z run had a fully phased vort. Some ec ens members have a few inches into the GTA but the core of the QPF stays east of the rochester-montreal corridor.

[London snowsquall]

Looks like it should for early Feb.  Nice day for a ski which I will be doing shortly.

 

 

[Torontonian]

Currently getting snizzle like conditions here downtown.

Despite apparent low visibility etc....just a coating so far.

 

Wil see if that Lake O. band keeps moving northwestward onshore towards T.O

[London snowsquall]

I meant to add a couple pictures from our driveway.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Currently getting snizzle like conditions here downtown.

Despite apparent low visibility etc....just a coating so far.

 

Wil see if that Lake O. band keeps moving northwestward onshore towards T.O

 

Interesting. Looks better out towards the airport. Getting accumulation on the 401.

 

Lake band will likely stay offshore.

[snowstormcanuck]

I meant to add a couple pictures from our driveway.

 

IMG_2381.jpg

IMG_2382.JPG

 

[blizzardof96]

Interesting. Looks better out towards the airport. Getting accumulation on the 401.

 

Lake band will likely stay offshore.

Could have a couple more hours to slowly drift NW towards the lake shore although the hires models keep it offshore. Once the slp centre gets SE of us, its over.

[snowstormcanuck]

Could have a couple more hours to slowly drift NW towards the lake shore although the hires models keep it offshore. Once the slp centre gets SE of us, its over.

 

Too bad it couldn't have been a stronger slp with the same track. Would have had enough wind then to drive that band inland.

[Snowstorms]

Been getting some light dendrites all day. Have a nice dusting everywhere.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I assume that 17" figure is iyby? Maybe you can add an inch or two today.

 

And boy is any "warm up" for late week/next week looking less and less impressive which each model run. It's not just the GFS. Even the EURO has backed off the last two runs or so.

Good to hear. Don't get me wrong, come March, I'll be ready for a warm-up, but I want it to stay cold until the end of meteorological winter. I still think there'll be a brief that centred around the 20th.

[snowstormcanuck]

Good to hear. Don't get me wrong, come March, I'll be ready for a warm-up, but I want it to stay cold until the end of meteorological winter. I still think there'll be a brief that centred around the 20th.

 

12z GFS wasn't as good but there's at least signs showing up in the models that as the Pacific turns increasingly hostile we may get some -NAO blocking in the Atlantic to mitigate the warmth.

 

In fact with -PNA/-NAO I wouldn't be surprised if there's a decent CAD snow/ice storm in the next 8-12 days.

[Snowstorms]

12z GFS wasn't as good but there's at least signs showing up in the models that as the Pacific turns increasingly hostile we may get some -NAO blocking in the Atlantic to mitigate the warmth.

 

In fact with -PNA/-NAO I wouldn't be surprised if there's a decent CAD snow/ice storm in the next 8-12 days.

 

Yeah, possibilities are their for some development to occur next weekend and beyond. Without the Atlantic cooperating this season, the pattern has been too progressive for a full phased storm to develop and impact the region. Teleconnections do favor a warm-up around mid-month, though I believe it will bare resemblance to the mid-late December warm-up.  Wouldn't be surprised if March starts off colder than normal like February as the Pacific reloads. 

 

Anything but an Ice storm. That last ice storm was bad enough and I'd be happy if we don't see another for a looong time, lol. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Yeah, possibilities are their for some development to occur next weekend and beyond. Without the Atlantic cooperating this season, the pattern has been too progressive for a full phased storm to develop and impact the region. Teleconnections do favor a warm-up around mid-month, though I believe it will bare resemblance to the mid-late December warm-up.  Wouldn't be surprised if March starts off colder than normal like February as the Pacific reloads. 

 

Anything but an Ice storm. That last ice storm was bad enough and I'd be happy if we don't see another for a looong time, lol. 

 

12z EURO shows us an example of what can happen with even an east based -NAO. Vortex of death over AK normally would produce a rain maker for us but with the -NAO we get a wintry mixed bag.

 

[Snowstorms]

12z EURO shows us an example of what can happen with even an east based -NAO. Vortex of death over AK normally would produce a rain maker for us but with the -NAO we get a wintry mixed bag.

 

 

 

Good point. If a weak -NAO does develop, it would keep a weak trough hanging on around the Lakes area and further north while the SE ridge takes hold of the SE (USA). Now thats an excellent gradient set-up! Just hoping the jetstream isnt too progressive like it has been all season. Do you know any analogs that would best match what the models are showing atm? 

 

And my total for today is 1.0cm, lol. 

[blizzardof96]

Good point. If a weak -NAO does develop, it would keep a weak trough hanging on around the Lakes area and further north while the SE ridge takes hold of the SE (USA). Now thats an excellent gradient set-up! Just hoping the jetstream isnt too progressive like it has been all season. Do you know any analogs that would best match what the models are showing atm? 

 

And my total for today is 1.0cm, lol.

I know the question wasnt directed towards me but the analogs i am using for late winter/spring are 2009, 1962, 1967, 2011 and 1986. I'll try and run some H5/sfc composites in a bit.

[snowstormcanuck]

Good point. If a weak -NAO does develop, it would keep a weak trough hanging on around the Lakes area and further north while the SE ridge takes hold of the SE (USA). Now thats an excellent gradient set-up! Just hoping the jetstream isnt too progressive like it has been all season. Do you know any analogs that would best match what the models are showing atm? 

 

And my total for today is 1.0cm, lol. 

 

That's it? Highway cams + YYZ obs looked better than that. Torontonian also said it was cruddy so I guess that's the case.

[snowstormcanuck]

I know the question wasnt directed towards me but the analogs i am using for late winter/spring are 2009, 1962, 1967, 2011 and 1986. I'll try and run some H5/sfc composites in a bit.

 

Glad you answered it 'cause I had nothing.

[Snowstorms]

I know the question wasnt directed towards me but the analogs i am using for late winter/spring are 2009, 1962, 1967, 2011 and 1986. I'll try and run some H5/sfc composites in a bit.

 

Good analogs!  I was going to run to some plots later today as well. Current pattern across the Equatorial Pacific resembles a typical La Nina with strong trade winds; however, I do suspect we turn the tables as we head into Spring. My current objectives are 1997, 2009 and 1994 but I will look deeper.  

 

That's it? Highway cams + YYZ obs looked better than that. Torontonian also said it was cruddy so I guess that's the case.

Yeah, lol. I cant speak for areas further south but in my area, I only measured 1.0cm.  

[blizzardof96]

Good analogs!  I was going to run to some plots later today as well. Current pattern across the Equatorial Pacific resembles a typical La Nina with strong trade winds; however, I do suspect we turn the tables as we head into Spring. My current objectives are 1997, 2009 and 1994 but I will look deeper.  

 

Yeah, lol. I cant speak for areas further south but in my area, I only measured 1.0cm.

Trade winds arent particularily strong right now but its aparent that you have that typical weak nina look in place. +OLR anoms are in place throughout the central pac with 30 day mean SOI near 15. Their is evidence of significant warming by late spring as the sub-sfc warmth upwells and shifts east from west of 180W into the enso domain. The more reliable statisticals are less bullish, and have more of a warm neutral look by late spring and summer.

[Torontonian]

That's it? Highway cams + YYZ obs looked better than that. Torontonian also said it was cruddy so I guess that's the case.

 

Just an update.....measured total of 2.5 cm  so far here downtown. 

Constant snizzle until about 5:00 pm downtown. Did slooooooowly accumulate.

 

As an aside.....

Looked over data from downtown site for Feb 15th -through March over last 20 yrs.

Wow, there is very few 15 cm snowfalls in that time.

Maybe 10 occasions or so in that 30 month period. Yikes!

[mississaugasnow]

Just an update.....measured total of 2.5 cm  so far here downtown. 

Constant snizzle until about 5:00 pm downtown. Did slooooooowly accumulate.

 

As an aside.....

Looked over data from downtown site for Feb 15th -through March over last 20 yrs.

Wow, there is very few 15 cm snowfalls in that time.

Maybe 10 occasions or so in that 30 month period. Yikes!

I remember hearing those stats before. After mid Feb the chances of significant storm start plummeting. I wouldn't mind one more big snowfall (10-15cm+) on top of what we have now. Then let it begin torching. 

[mississaugasnow]

One thing that is crazy to think about is that in 2012 we would have been only a month and a bit away from the beginning of leaf out. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Just an update.....measured total of 2.5 cm  so far here downtown. 

Constant snizzle until about 5:00 pm downtown. Did slooooooowly accumulate.

 

As an aside.....

Looked over data from downtown site for Feb 15th -through March over last 20 yrs.

Wow, there is very few 15 cm snowfalls in that time.

Maybe 10 occasions or so in that 30 month period. Yikes!

 

Snowstorms after Feb 15 from the top of my head

 

Feb 26-27, 2013 (although that was mostly a north of the 401 deal)

March 23, 2011 (15cm)

March 7-8, 2008 (20-25cm)

March 4-5, 2008 (15cm)

Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 (17 or 18cm)

March 4-5, 2003 (15cm or maybe a little less)

February 22-23, 2003 (20cm)

March 5-6, 2001 (20-25cm)

First week of March, 1999 (15-20cm)

March 21-22, 1998 (20-30cm)

 

The frequency probably drops off a bit from the heart of winter (late Dec-early Feb). But that's not bad to have a later bloomer once every 2-3 years or so.

[Snowstorms]

Snowstorms after Feb 15 from the top of my head

 

Feb 26-27, 2013 (although that was mostly a north of the 401 deal)

March 23, 2011 (15cm)

March 7-8, 2008 (20-25cm)

March 4-5, 2008 (15cm)

Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005 (17 or 18cm)

March 4-5, 2003 (15cm or maybe a little less)

March 5-6, 2001 (20-25cm)

First week of March, 1999 (15-20cm)

March 21-22, 1998 (20-30cm)

 

The frequency probably drops off a bit from the heart of winter (late Dec-early Feb). But that's not bad to have a later bloomer once every 2-3 years or so.

 

You forgot about the early March 2007 snow event. Wasn't much but I remember my area got like 10cm before it turned over to freezing rain and rain. In addition, we had a snow event in early April 2002/03 too.

 

Frequency does drop, but it would be nice to get a decent snowstorm or two in March. Its been 2 years since the last time we had a decent storm in March. 

[snowstormcanuck]

You forgot about the early March 2007 snow event. Wasn't much but I remember my area got like 10cm before it turned over to freezing rain and rain. In addition, we had a snow event in early April 2002/03 too.

 

Frequency does drop, but it would be nice to get a decent snowstorm or two in March. Its been 2 years since the last time we had a decent storm in March. 

 

I didn't forget it. I was only listing storms that brought around or over 15cm.

[Toronto4]

Other 15+ cm snowfall events after Feb 15 for Toronto:

Feb 22-23, 2003 (20 cm)

March 14, 1997 (16 cm)

March 8-9, 1994 (15 cm)

Feb 23, 1994 (15 cm)**This came after the torch of Feb 15-20.

Feb 21-22, 1993 (26 cm)

Feb 15, 1990 (21 cm)**There was a period of freezing rain after the heavy thump of snow.

[snowstormcanuck]

Other 15+ cm snowfall events after Feb 15 for Toronto:

Feb 22-23, 2003 (20 cm)

March 14, 1997 (16 cm)

March 8-9, 1994 (15 cm)

Feb 23, 1994 (15 cm)**This came after the torch of Feb 15-20.

Feb 21-22, 1993 (26 cm)

Feb 15, 1990 (21 cm)**There was a period of freezing rain after the heavy thump of snow.

 

Ah, nice catch.

 

And of course, Feb 27-28, 1984...one of Toronto's big dogs.

[Toronto4]

Ah, nice catch.

And of course, Feb 27-28, 1984...one of Toronto's big dogs.

I was too young to remember the 1984 event, but I do recall another early spring snow event on March 31, 1987. That one brought 25 cm and that was the only snowfall that month. Earlier that month, it got up to 18C on the 7th. March break that year was relatively mild.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Other 15+ cm snowfall events after Feb 15 for Toronto:

Feb 22-23, 2003 (20 cm)

March 14, 1997 (16 cm)

March 8-9, 1994 (15 cm)

Feb 23, 1994 (15 cm)**This came after the torch of Feb 15-20.

Feb 21-22, 1993 (26 cm)

Feb 15, 1990 (21 cm)**There was a period of freezing rain after the heavy thump of snow.

I well remember the February 1993 storm. Huge. I was in Grade 7 and it was the Monday that my big science project was due. I got to school late that morning. I also remember the February 1994 storm. Scouts was cancelled that Wednesday evening due to the storm. The winds were quite strong with that storm if my memory serves me right.