on_wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Noticing a lot of media (including TWN) and internet posts calling the snowfall in Toronto "record breaking" and using it has a sensationalist piece, but only a daily record was broken, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Noticing a lot of media (including TWN) and internet posts calling the snowfall in Toronto "record breaking" and using it has a sensationalist piece, but only a daily record was broken, correct? Yes. Monthly/seasonal snowfall is nowhere near record breaking for Toronto. edit: neither was it anywhere near recording breaking in terms of an all time storm or even monthly storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not feeling it. Progressive flow argues against a big storm. Not seeing much inter-model support. GEFS are virtually all coastals.About 12 EC ensemble members are biting for a 3"+ event at YYZ. The mean looks to favor a coastal solution as well, although a smaller piece manages to hang back over the eastern lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 About 12 EC ensemble members are biting for a 3"+ event at YYZ. The mean looks to favor a coastal solution as well, although a smaller piece manages to hang back over the eastern lakes. 12 out 51 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12 out 51 right? Yep. 50 members plus a control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yes. Monthly/seasonal snowfall is nowhere near record breaking for Toronto. edit: neither was it anywhere near recording breaking in terms of an all time storm or even monthly storm. While I will admit that this could end up being the coldest winter in 20 years, the media really is sensationalizing this. I watched the CBS evening news out of the states and they were calling this winter weird and "freakish" simply because California is in a drought and Texas is getting snow and ice, neither of which is unheard of. Patterns like this have happened before, just not in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 the forecast low is -18c and yet my temperature has been steady around -8C with a SSW wind, with Detroit and Chicago also experiencing a similar wind direction. Is an arctic front supposed to move through tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Was down by the YYZ area today and measured an average snow depth of 32cm after analyzing 12 different spots. You can draw your own conclusions about Nipher yesterday. Awesome storm nonetheless. There's two potentials worth watching next week IMO. I think models are incorrectly handling the pattern next week. With the PNA staying negative, the mean trough should stay west of the Lakes region, keeping a weak ridge in place across the SE (USA). I expect this Hybrid La Nina like pattern to continue through March promoting continuous stormy weather. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Was down by the YYZ area today and measured an average snow depth of 32cm after analyzing 12 different spots. You can draw your own conclusions about Nipher yesterday. Awesome storm nonetheless. There's two potentials worth watching next week IMO. I think models are incorrectly handling the pattern next week. With the PNA staying negative, the mean trough should stay west of the Lakes region, keeping a weak ridge in place across the SE (USA). I expect this Hybrid La Nina like pattern to continue through March promoting continuous stormy weather. Fun times ahead! I don't see it, but I sure hope you're right. Unless there's a 4"+ storm on the horizon, all I see is zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 About 4 or 5 years back, over at Eastern (the precursor to this board) there was a met from Burlington who worked at TWN who posted occasionally. I never saw a poster like that but it was difficult anyways to find Canadians back then anyways on Eastern. So that's 1 then lol. Yes, it's unfortunate that we lost a few members during the switch-over. It was very sudden and unexpected and I'm lucky that I was able to find this board. Sure didn't seem like it, looked like nearly everyone came over effortlessly. Shockingly smooth almost. I agree with the sudden and unexpected part, but I wouldn't say lucky because there is one thing that keeps everyone informed of unexpected events online...search engines (Google). I got some unexpected snow this evening and areas along the shore as well. I think it was LES but yet looking at the ice cover, organized bands that temporarily hit Bruce and Huron counties couldn't have formed like it did so I'm drawing a blank. I can see how disorganized is possible because moisture can still get through pockets and broken ice patches all over but this was quite the opposite. It was between light and moderate. I'm also suppose to hit a wind chill of -30C tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I never saw a poster like that but it was difficult anyways to find Canadians back then anyways on Eastern. So that's 1 then lol. Sure didn't seem like it, looked like nearly everyone came over effortlessly. Shockingly smooth almost. I agree with the sudden and unexpected part, but I wouldn't say lucky because there is one thing that keeps everyone informed of unexpected events online...search engines (Google). I got some unexpected snow this evening and areas along the shore as well. I think it was LES but yet looking at the ice cover, organized bands that temporarily hit Bruce and Huron counties couldn't have formed like it did so I'm drawing a blank. I can see how disorganized is possible because moisture can still get through pockets and broken ice patches all over but this was quite the opposite. It was between light and moderate. I'm also suppose to hit a wind chill of -30C tonight. I can't remember how I found my way here. I think it was through google. For about 15 minutes I just accepted that the board was gone. Then, for interest's sake, I googled eastern WX and read what had happened. Thankfully there's a Facebook page for this board now where they communicate with us all if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A met from WFO Winnipeg used to be on some big, now defunct, Canadian weather forum back in probably 2004-2007. Learned from him that on August 19, 2005 their office in Winnipeg assumed control of Ontario as Downsview was evacuated due to tornado, and Winnipeg was issuing all warnings thereafter. He also used to post thoughtful articles and such. Haven't seen a Canadian met since on weather forums, not event the one on Eastern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Was down by the YYZ area today and measured an average snow depth of 32cm after analyzing 12 different spots. You can draw your own conclusions about Nipher yesterday. Awesome storm nonetheless. There's two potentials worth watching next week IMO. I think models are incorrectly handling the pattern next week. With the PNA staying negative, the mean trough should stay west of the Lakes region, keeping a weak ridge in place across the SE (USA). I expect this Hybrid La Nina like pattern to continue through March promoting continuous stormy weather. Fun times ahead! Hope you saw in the main storm thread that Pearson's final number was 16cm rather than 14cm. And that's a gutsy call. Will bump in about a week for trolling/praise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 A met from WFO Winnipeg used to be on some big, now defunct, Canadian weather forum back in probably 2004-2007. Learned from him that on August 19, 2005 their office in Winnipeg assumed control of Ontario as Downsview was evacuated due to tornado, and Winnipeg was issuing all warnings thereafter. He also used to post thoughtful articles and such. Haven't seen a Canadian met since on weather forums, not event the one on Eastern Before I found this board back in summer 2007, I used to post on something called The Canadian Weather Forums for a couple of years. I believe Don Sutherland used to post on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I got some unexpected snow this evening and areas along the shore as well. I think it was LES but yet looking at the ice cover, organized bands that temporarily hit Bruce and Huron counties couldn't have formed like it did so I'm drawing a blank. I can see how disorganized is possible because moisture can still get through pockets and broken ice patches all over but this was quite the opposite. It was between light and moderate. I'm also suppose to hit a wind chill of -30C tonight. Just blew through here. SN at times and its pretty wicked with the wind. Thinking it's LES off Michigan with the W winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Snowing at my place. I'm guessing it's either lake effect or frontal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Before I found this board back in summer 2007, I used to post on something called The Canadian Weather Forums for a couple of years. I believe Don Sutherland used to post on it as well. Don Sutherland sounds familiar. He was on Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don Sutherland sounds familiar. He was on Eastern? Yes, Don Sutherland use to post on Eastern Wx. Liked how he included Toronto in his forecasts on board dominated by Northeast U.S posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This winter is going to end up WAY below normal. November, December, January, and early February have all be well below normal, no? The difference between this year and the last two years is shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 This winter is going to end up WAY below normal. November, December, January, and early February have all be well below normal, no? The difference between this year and the last two years is shocking. Interesting how areas to our southwest (London, Sarnia, Windsor, Detroit) are a fair bit colder than us this morning. It's not often that the cold air source is to the SSW. I knew we wouldn't make -18C last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Interesting how areas to our southwest (London, Sarnia, Windsor, Detroit) are a fair bit colder than us this morning. It's not often that the cold air source is to the SSW. I knew we wouldn't make -18C last night! It's actually been multiple times this year now where the main arctic outbreak shoots down through Minnesota/Wisconsin, down around the Chicago area, across Michigan, and hooks up through Detroit/Windsor/Sarnia and then into our region, but often more modified after crossing over all the lakes. We haven't had many intrusions directly from the North this year. Oddly enough, the W/SW wind has provided us with some of our coldest weather this season. How have Ottawa and Montreal been this year? Colder than normal also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's actually been multiple times this year now where the main arctic outbreak shoots down through Minnesota/Wisconsin, down around the Chicago area, across Michigan, and hooks up through Detroit/Windsor/Sarnia and then into our region, but often more modified after crossing over all the lakes. We haven't had many intrusions directly from the North this year. Oddly enough, the W/SW wind has provided us with some of our coldest weather this season. How have Ottawa and Montreal been this year? Colder than normal also? Colder than normal but not by as much as Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hoping we can maybe pick up 2-3 cm (1.5") tomorrow to freshen up the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 First 8 nights of Feb and only 3 have not dropped below -20. Lowest temp -26.1 on the 4th and highest temp +0.5 on the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think OB's desire for a below normal Feb is pretty much locked up. We're already a solid 4+ degrees below normal and we're about to hit the 1/3 mark of the month. Models oscillate between slightly above normal temps to well below normal temps beyond D7, but unless we truly torch for a week (which seems unlikely at this point) you can lock up a wall to wall cold winter in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 -20.2 with a forecast low of -14 -23.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 With a mean temp of -7.4c thus far at YYZ, the winter of 2013-14 is blowing away recent "cold" winters by a decent margin. 2010-11 -5.4c 2008-09 -5.2c 2004-05 -4.5c 2002-03 -5.8c 2013-14 is actually tied with 1993-94 right now, but we'd have to avoid any moderation this week/next week to be there in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 With a mean temp of -7.4c thus far at YYZ, the winter of 2013-14 is blowing away recent "cold" winters by a decent margin. 2010-11 -5.4c 2008-09 -5.2c 2004-05 -4.5c 2002-03 -5.8c 2013-14 is actually tied with 1993-94 right now, but we'd have to avoid any moderation this week/next week to be there in the end. I don't think we'll beat 1993-1994. Are we beating 1995-1996? December was slightly colder that winter, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't think we'll beat 1993-1994. Are we beating 1995-1996? December was slightly colder that winter, I believe. Yup. 1995-96 = -5.9c. December 1995 was colder like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like we have probably peaked for snow depth this season. Would be surprised if we top our current depth of 17" pending the late week warm up. Great lakes ice cover is at 77.4% currently. Considering peak coverage usually occurs on march 9th we have a decent shot at getting close to the 78-79 record of 94.7%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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