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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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Great photos! Looks like heart of winter should.

 

 

Impressive pics harrisale. That's deep winter right there. :D

 

Thanks guys, it looks great out there. Backyard nice and windswept and some sidewalks are like walking down a hallway. This storm has elevated this winter into the A grade range for me. 

 

Great work/pics! Do you know how much snow has fallen in Oakville so far?

 

 

I assume you mean on the season. Unfortunately, I haven't really been keeping track (I know, I know). Need to commit to a weather journal soon. If I had to guess, from memorable synoptic snows and clippers, I'd say we've had at least 90cm (35").

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I'm trying to find the Downsview airport data on the EC site, but can't find it. Does anybody have a link to it?

Actually Downsview (Toronto North York) is the Environment Canada headquarters on Dufferin Ave, just south of Steeles. Environment Canada personnel take daily readings. Here's the link to the daily data:

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=26953&dlyRange=1994-11-01|2014-02-02&Year=2014&Month=2&Day=1

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The MJO has the potential to remain somewhat active over the western IO (~45-90E) for much of feb into early march. Thinking roundy plots are overdone with 200mb CHI over the IO based on the SST setup. We have also seen the tendency for weaker then modelled waves over this area so far this fall/winter, which is another red flag. For those reasons, the strat should have a larger influence on the pattern, which favours mean troughiness over the lakes(secondary trough over the GOA) and some WB blocking. This opens the doors for a cold and dry NW flow pattern before we see retrogression in the ferrel cell.  The 10-15 day euro EPS mean has this reversal occurring by ~Feb 20th with a SE ridge strengthening and a gulf open to moisture/ WSW flow. Thats the period i'm watching for a return to more significant wintry wx across the lower lakes.

 

Amazing analysis! I agree. I'm currently watching Stratospheric temperatures for a potential SSW that could form later this month depending how strong the Waves are. The PV has taken some hits this season, but still nothing strong enough to destroy the PV and develop a full blown -AO/NAO pattern. I'm also watching the window between Feb 8th and 15th for a possible storm or two to form. Potential is there with both northern streams and strong S/W's ejecting out of the Gulf. The key is timing. Strong Trade winds across the dateline is keeping SST's in the ENSO region within La Nina territory. The EPO may briefly go positive around mid-month as the pattern reloads itself, but SST's clearly paint a strong Pacific Warm Pool that argue for a prolonged +EPO. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we return to a clipper pattern in early March with the possibilities of a strong Polar Jet developing. Definitely alot of potentials in the LR and the Great Lakes region look to be in the sweet spot.  

 

Feb 10th to 15th has potential IMO. Then again after Feb 20th. Ties in perfectly with my forecast back in November when I said, "February could end up being snowy in the region". 

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Actually Downsview (Toronto North York) is the Environment Canada headquarters on Dufferin Ave, just south of Steeles. Environment Canada personnel take daily readings. Here's the link to the daily data:

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=26953&dlyRange=1994-11-01|2014-02-02&Year=2014&Month=2&Day=1

 

They should implement the same strategies they use to measure snowfall at Downsview with YYZ. It would get rid of the Nipher controversy atleast. However, their budget is limited and until they get help from the Government, no further action will be taken. 

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They should implement the same strategies they use to measure snowfall at Downsview with YYZ. It would get rid of the Nipher controversy atleast. However, their budget is limited and until they get help from the Government, no further action will be taken. 

 

Seriously, I've noticed the media is basically ignoring the Pearson number. Don't let it prevent you from enjoying this storm.

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Seriously, I've noticed the media is basically ignoring the Pearson number. Don't let it prevent you from enjoying this storm.

 

I was flipping thru channels and I noticed TWN saying YYZ recorded 20cm today. They named like 4-5 other stations in the GTA when they said that...

 

And true. I aint. I have my own observations :D. Sucks you aint here to enjoy this.. :(

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They should implement the same strategies they use to measure snowfall at Downsview with YYZ. It would get rid of the Nipher controversy atleast. However, their budget is limited and until they get help from the Government, no further action will be taken.

Many years ago, Environment Canada had a bunch of weather stations in the Toronto area taking daily precip/snowfalll readings. Even the Island Airport was once a manned station. But budget cutbacks in the mid 90s eliminated a bunch of stations from the climate observing network.

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Actually Downsview (Toronto North York) is the Environment Canada headquarters on Dufferin Ave, just south of Steeles. Environment Canada personnel take daily readings. Here's the link to the daily data:

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=26953&dlyRange=1994-11-01|2014-02-02&Year=2014&Month=2&Day=1

Thanks!

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That's a nice total for a year and you still have a couple mths to go.  You're about 30 inches ahead of me.  Too damn many events with winds from the SW instead of the NW.   The November event here on the city's west side was awesome however.......

 

Yeah, we got hit really hard from Late November to Mid January with the Lake Effect. Nearly every event lined up perfectly for my neck of the woods. Here is some of the LES events so far this winter, many are not included yet.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/13-14.html

 

I chased many of them here is my YouTube. Some epic snowfall rates in some of these videos.

 

http://www.youtube.com/user/BuffaloWeather1

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Yup, it sucks. I'll be back for reading week. Just in time for the mild up! :lol:

 

ahah, your bringing in bad luck man! ;)

 

CBC News World doing a recap of the storm.  Had a list of totals but no mention of Pearson's #. Same thing happened last year with the Feb 8 storm. People know what's what.

 

Haha thats jokes. Hopefully EC can foster their budget up and change the Nipher problem at YYZ once and for all. :lol:

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Final totals across WNY.

 

 

 

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...
BUFFALO 8.8 1000 PM 2/05 NWS OFFICE
WEST SENECA 8.5 1048 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
HAMBURG 8.2 940 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 NW KENMORE 8.2 600 AM 2/06 COCORAHS
EAST AURORA 8.0 616 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S WALES 8.0 700 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 E WILLIAMSVILLE 7.8 700 AM 2/06 COCORAHS
LANCASTER 7.7 950 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA 7.4 700 AM 2/06 COCORAHS
WILLIAMSVILLE 7.3 618 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
ENE EAST AURORA 7.1 700 AM 2/06 COCORAHS
ESE KENMORE 6.5 745 AM 2/06 COCORAHS
4 N BUFFALO 6.0 700 AM 2/06 COCORAHS
2 SSW BLASDELL 5.0 700 AM 2/06 COCORAHS

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
GENESEO 12.0 845 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
7 S LIVONIA 8.5 600 PM 2/05 PUBLIC

...MONROE COUNTY...
ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 12.5 1000 PM 2/05 ASOS
1 S FAIRPORT 12.0 1012 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
BROCKPORT 10.5 800 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 NE WEBSTER 7.0 800 PM 2/05 CO-OP OBSERVER

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
SANBORN 13.0 732 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
LOCKPORT 12.0 800 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 NE YOUNGSTOWN 7.5 700 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
6 E NIAGARA FALLS 7.4 700 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ONTARIO COUNTY...
EAST BLOOMFIELD 14.0 615 PM 2/05 PUBLIC
2 NNW GENEVA 10.0 630 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 W GENEVA 9.8 800 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
GENEVA 8.5 655 PM 2/05 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WAYNE COUNTY...
WALWORTH 13.8 1000 PM 2/05 COCORAHS
NEWARK 7.9 600 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 E NEWARK 7.8 700 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER

...WYOMING COUNTY...
6 SW WARSAW 10.0 700 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
ORANGEVILLE CENTER 9.9 623 PM 2/05 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 N SILVER SPRINGS 7.0 700 AM 2/06 CO-OP OBSERVER

$

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SWS for all areas south of Barrie, excluding Toronto, as more blowing snow is on the way tomorrow.

 

==DISCUSSION==
RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGIONS HAS NOT HAD TIME TO SETTLE AND
STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.  WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KILOMETRES PER HOUR WITH
GUSTS TO 50 OR 60 KILOMETRES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THEN WILL
DIMINISH.  IMPACTS MAY INCLUDE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO IN
WIDE OPEN AREAS WITHOUT VEGETATION AND SNOW COVERING ROADS.
BLOWING SNOW WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

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The latest Buffalo discussion has me slightly interested. Im also hoping for a nice refresher to the snow pack saturday night. I don't mind the nickel and dime stuff.  

 

12Z CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY

WESTWARD...SUGGESTING IN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT
OUR REGION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS
TO SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST...HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY A CHANCE THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SNOW WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK.

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The great "nipher controversy" is big drama these das.

I saw it headlined on ET Canada tonight. "Shocking new reveal for the nipher" and "Nipher tells all"

That would be funny if ET Canada or E Talk Canada really did that, would be a nice change from the usual.

 

Has anyone else noticed how there has never been a Canadian meteorologist on a message board on the Internet? Never got that nor have recognized one for all the weather sites I know of, they are on twitter and facebook but yet never on a Internet forum. There are multiple CAD users here that are in school to become one currently.

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That would be funny if ET Canada or E Talk Canada really did that, would be a nice change from the usual.

 

Has anyone else noticed how there has never been a Canadian meteorologist on a message board on the Internet? Never got that nor have recognized one for all the weather sites I know of, they are on twitter and facebook but yet never on a Internet forum. There are multiple CAD users here that are in school to become one currently.

 

About 4 or 5 years back, over at Eastern (the precursor to this board) there was a met from Burlington who worked at TWN who posted occasionally. 

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About 4 or 5 years back, over at Eastern (the precursor to this board) there was a met from Burlington who worked at TWN who posted occasionally. 

Yes, it's unfortunate that we lost a few members during the switch-over. It was very sudden and unexpected and I'm lucky that I was able to find this board.

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About 4 or 5 years back, over at Eastern (the precursor to this board) there was a met from Burlington who worked at TWN who posted occasionally.

Any thoughts on the storm the euro has been consistent with around 168 hours? Im not really seeing that classic look with more of a west/southwest ridge showing up as opposed to higher heights over the NE pac. This should favour a storm track further east as long as the SE ridge stays weak. Also dont have much support from the other global models. Curious to hear your thoughts.

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Any thoughts on the storm the euro has been consistent with around 168 hours? Im not really seeing that classic look with more of a west/southwest ridge showing up as opposed to higher heights over the NE pac. This should favour a storm track further east as long as the SE ridge stays weak. Also dont have much support from the other global models. Curious to hear your thoughts.

 

Not feeling it. Progressive flow argues against a big storm. Not seeing much inter-model support. GEFS are virtually all coastals. 

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