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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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After a careful analysis I'm going to bring down my initial measurement, simply because of all the blowing snow thats been occurring through out the day. 

 

My revised storm total is now 27.0cm instead of 30.0cm. 

 

Snow depth now stands at 2 feet in my area :D

Same here. Downsview reported 28 cm, and I got hit by the same heavy band as they did, so 27 cm is about right.

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Lmaoo. Honestly, what you said always comes to my mind whenever theirs a storm. EC will do anything to lowball YYZ so it "fits in" with their forecast. Its a joke! EC needs to get its act together and make all these changes. First and foremost, get rid of the ****ing Nipher.  

 

How did you do with this storm? ;)

 

We had 2 dry slots and most of the area had 8-12 inches. Without those dry slots most of WNY would of had 10-15 inch totals.

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Lmaoo. Honestly, what you said always comes to my mind whenever theirs a storm. EC will do anything to lowball YYZ so it "fits in" with their forecast. Its a joke! EC needs to get its act together and make all these changes. First and foremost, get rid of the ****ing Nipher.  

 

How did you do with this storm? ;)

Not too bad we should finish with around 8-9" in the city. :thumbsup:

 

We had 2 dry slots and most of the area had 8-12 inches. Without those dry slots most of WNY would of had 10-15 inch totals.

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We had 2 dry slots and most of the area had 8-12 inches. Without those dry slots most of WNY would of had 10-15 inch totals.

 

Well thats still something. Congrats :D. Well we all got something to be happy about. ;) Lets hope we can all get one more big dog storm haha :lol: 

 

Stay safe! :) 

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Lmaoo. Honestly, what you said always comes to my mind whenever theirs a storm. EC will do anything to lowball YYZ so it "fits in" with their forecast. Its a joke! EC needs to get its act together and make all these changes. First and foremost, get rid of the ****ing Nipher.  

 

How did you do with this storm? ;)

 

You're a broken record. You say this every storm but you don't have a shred of proof of it. Notice how EC included about a dozen other reports from the GTA in its storm summary that clearly evidence that it busted. If it was some concerted effort to whitewash their crappy forecasts wouldn't they have excluded those?

 

Also, they issued a warning! Which means their final forecast for Toronto was for over 15cm to fall. Again, doesn't jibe with your conspiracy theory.

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You're a broken record. You say this every storm but you don't have a shred of proof of it. Notice how EC included about a dozen other reports from the GTA in its storm summary that clearly evidence that it busted. If it was some concerted effort to whitewash their crappy forecasts wouldn't they have excluded those?

 

Also, they issued a warning! Which means their final forecast for Toronto was for over 15cm to fall. Again, doesn't jibe with your conspiracy theory.

 

Hmm. perhaps I am over reacting then. But in fairness, YYZ whether it'd be rain or snow, usually seems to tally up the lowest number among all the other stations. And I understand your warning theory, but its clear Environment Canada needs to improve their system to better facilitate watches/warnings to the public. Alot of people were caught off guard today and thats no surprise. Cant blame EC! 

 

 

 

And the final number at YYZ can't be 14cm because they were reporting that at noon. It snowed, at times heavily, for a couple of hours after that.

 

According to their summaries, its valid 4pm...

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Hmm. perhaps I am over reacting then. But in fairness, YYZ whether it'd be rain or snow, usually seems to tally up the lowest number among all the other stations. And I understand your warning theory, but its clear Environment Canada needs to improve their system to better facilitate watches/warnings to the public. Alot of people were caught off guard today and thats no surprise. Cant blame EC! 

 

 

 

 

According to their summaries, its valid 4pm...

A nipher's gotta niph. There's no other explanation in windy storms like this. The weekend event is a perfect example of when it can function much more accurately.

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Hmm. perhaps I am over reacting then. But in fairness, YYZ whether it'd be rain or snow, usually seems to tally up the lowest number among all the other stations. And I understand your warning theory, but its clear Environment Canada needs to improve their system to better facilitate watches/warnings to the public. Alot of people were caught off guard today and thats no surprise. Cant blame EC! 

 

 

 

 

According to their summaries, its valid 4pm...

 

The summaries aren't always gospel truth. For the Dec 14th event they had a final number of 17cm for downtown. Ended up actually being 28.5cm.

 

It'll be too bad if the number is indeed 14cm because aside from that clipper, and maybe being a bit off for the Dec 14 storm, they didn't do to badly this year. 14cm when closer to 20cm probably fell is more than a little off.

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The summaries aren't always gospel truth. For the Dec 14th event they had a final number of 17cm for downtown. Ended up actually being 28.5cm.

 

It'll be too bad if the number is indeed 14cm because aside from that clipper, and maybe being a bit off for the Dec 14 storm, they didn't do to badly this year. 14cm when closer to 20cm probably fell is more than a little off.

While YYZ's measuring system has significant systematic error, I can assure you that the EC mets do know that it is a false storm total snow, however being an official observation station, they record it in the weather summaries. 

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THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW REFLECT SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SNOW

STORM, GATHERED UP TO 6 P.M TODAY FROM WEATHER OBSERVATION STATIONS

AND VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS.

 

LOCATION             TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT

                         (CENTIMETRES)

 

WINDSOR                       14

NIAGARA ESCARPMENT            21

GRIMSBY                       21

TILLSONBURG                   10

WATERLOO                      17

HAMILTON                      24

BRAMPTON                      21

OAKVILLE                      20.5

TORONTO PEARSON               14

SOUTH ETOBICOKE               22

DOWNSVIEW                     28

VAUGHAN                       21

WOODBRIDGE                    22

EAST YORK                     22

BUTTONVILLE AIRPORT           17

NORTH RICHMOND HILL           16

RICHMOND HILL                 14

AURORA                        15

AJAX                          17

TORONTO RIVERDALE             18

TORONTO EAST YORK             20

TRENTON                       12

KINGSTON                      10

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THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW REFLECT SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SNOW
STORM, GATHERED UP TO 6 P.M TODAY FROM WEATHER OBSERVATION STATIONS
AND VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS.
 
LOCATION             TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT
                         (CENTIMETRES)
 
WINDSOR                       14
NIAGARA ESCARPMENT            21
GRIMSBY                       21
TILLSONBURG                   10
WATERLOO                      17
HAMILTON                      24
BRAMPTON                      21
OAKVILLE                      20.5
TORONTO PEARSON               14
SOUTH ETOBICOKE               22
DOWNSVIEW                     28
VAUGHAN                       21
WOODBRIDGE                    22
EAST YORK                     22
BUTTONVILLE AIRPORT           17
NORTH RICHMOND HILL           16
RICHMOND HILL                 14
AURORA                        15
AJAX                          17
TORONTO RIVERDALE             18
TORONTO EAST YORK             20
TRENTON                       12
KINGSTON                      10

 

 

Haha looks like my report made it in in time. Didn't think they'd include the decimal lol!

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You're a broken record. You say this every storm but you don't have a shred of proof of it. Notice how EC included about a dozen other reports from the GTA in its storm summary that clearly evidence that it busted. If it was some concerted effort to whitewash their crappy forecasts wouldn't they have excluded those?

 

Also, they issued a warning! Which means their final forecast for Toronto was for over 15cm to fall. Again, doesn't jibe with your conspiracy theory.

I agree with this. I also agree with some of the mets who say that a snowfall warning should have been issued for Toronto yesterday afternoon, by which time the models had clearly trended north with the storm.

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Looks like EC's night time low for YYZ could bust tonight. Wind is out of the north with strong CAA, clear skies and very strong albedo. Only thing holding us back are some gusty winds and an inversion holding strong just below 850.

Definitely possible as winds look to calm down later this evening. If they do, -20C is well within reach.

I've been analyzing the pattern 10-15 days out and I do see a quick warmup around mid-month before another cool down to end the month off. Whats your take?

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Definitely possible as winds look to calm down later this evening. If they do, -20C is well within reach.

I've been analyzing the pattern 10-15 days out and I do see a quick warmup around mid-month before another cool down to end the month off. Whats your take?

 

The MJO has the potential to remain somewhat active over the western IO (~45-90E) for much of feb into early march. Thinking roundy plots are overdone with 200mb CHI over the IO based on the SST setup. We have also seen the tendency for weaker then modelled waves over this area so far this fall/winter, which is another red flag. For those reasons, the strat should have a larger influence on the pattern, which favours mean troughiness over the lakes(secondary trough over the GOA) and some WB blocking. This opens the doors for a cold and dry NW flow pattern before we see retrogression in the ferrel cell.  The 10-15 day euro EPS mean has this reversal occurring by ~Feb 20th with a SE ridge strengthening and a gulf open to moisture/ WSW flow. Thats the period i'm watching for a return to more significant wintry wx across the lower lakes.

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