Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The positioning of the PV and PNA ridge later next week will be a key factor in determining the track of a potential Winter storm around March 1st. A weak SE Ridge will be in place with plenty of cold air all around us. Key is timing and positioning. The AO goes negative next week; however, the NAO remains positive as depicted by models atm and that could become a helping factor once we get closer. Given climatology, the extreme cold won't be as persistent as it was earlier this month, which is why the potential exists for something big to form. Just an interesting note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Snow is winding down in my area. 3.0cm exactly! Temperature on my thermometer is -0.5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Let the pingers roll... hearing reports of ZR in the west end via global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Pretty much identical on what happen in the Detroit area minus TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:38 PM, Snowstorms said: The positioning of the PV and PNA ridge later next week will be a key factor in determining the track of a potential Winter storm around March 1st. A weak SE Ridge will be in place with plenty of cold air all around us. Key is timing and positioning. The AO goes negative next week; however, the NAO remains positive as depicted by models atm and that could become a helping factor once we get closer. Given climatology, the extreme cold won't be as persistent as it was earlier this month, which is why the potential exists for something big to form. Just an interesting note. I agree with the threat of a bigger storm but I think it'll be a little later than March 1. And although suppression isn't as likely in March, don't think it can't happen. That big storm last March. The super clipper in March 2008. A storm around the middle of March in 2004 that dropped 1-2 feet along the north shore of Lk Erie while Toronto got 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:46 PM, dmc76 said: Pretty much identical on what happen in the Detroit area minus TSSN Looks like the TSSN mostly went across Lk Erie into WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:10 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Too bad the returns are starting to fall apart to the west. Thermals would have been supportive of SN for a couple more hours. Steady wet snow here for the past 90 minutes. The returns don't look very impressive to our west. In fact, it's not even raining in London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 9:59 PM, blizzardof96 said: Heavy heavy snow here. Visibility low and snow accumulating now. On 2/20/2014 at 10:05 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Easily the biggest flakes I've seen since 2011. Closing in on an inch on elevated sfcs/snowpack. Very impressed with this snow event. Totally unexpected too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:47 PM, snowstormcanuck said: I agree with the threat of a bigger storm but I think it'll be a little later than March 1. And although suppression isn't as likely in March, don't think it can't happen. That big storm last March. The super clipper in March 2008. A storm around the middle of March in 2004 that dropped 1-2 feet along the north shore of Lk Erie while Toronto got 2". We've gotten whiffed to the south here with snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 3.5 cm here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 11:02 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Very impressed with this snow event. Totally unexpected too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 12:41 AM, snowstormcanuck said: lol I was expecting ice pellets or freezing rain until you drew attention to the short range model this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Interesting how the 12z Euro remains insistent that we don't go any higher than 38F, while Windsor and Detroit climb to near 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Looks like thunderstorms are currently affecting London. They might make their way here within the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 12:53 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: I was expecting ice pellets or freezing rain until you drew attention to the short range model this afternoon. There were on and off hints dating back to Tuesday. But w/e, I don't want to bust your balls about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 +RN or ZR is on the doorstep. Hearing reports of freezing rain out west near kitchener although lower elevs like YXU are reporting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1 flash of lightning so far from the Southwest. Took about 20 seconds for the thunder to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Lots of lightning about 1/2 hour ago. All gone for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/20/2014 at 10:50 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like the TSSN mostly went across Lk Erie into WNY. Yeah we got some here to our East. I didn't have enough elevation to get much here though. Mostly very wet snow that didn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 1:56 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah we got some here to our East. I didn't have enough elevation to get much here though. Mostly very wet snow that didn't stick. Looks like some of the heaviest rain might hit your area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Still holding steady at 2.0 degrees as it has been between 2.0 and 3.0 degrees the entire day. Snow that fell has now glaciated from compacting and has made sidewalks very dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'm getting the heavy rain to my disdain (rather it be ZR) but got flashes of lightning and thunder 20 mins ago, one good rumble in one of them. The last 7 winters have had a thunderstorm during a typical winter month except one year...when before 2006 I don't ever remember one where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 2:08 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Looks like some of the heaviest rain might hit your area tonight. Yeah was just pouring outside for awhile. 35 degrees out, warm front is on the doorstep with Cleveland at 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Raining at my place. Temperature is -0.1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 First thunderstorm of the year. So far 5 lighting flashes and a handful of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 3:36 AM, mississaugasnow said: First thunderstorm of the year. So far 5 lighting flashes and a handful of thunder Awesome! I saw 4 flashes wayy out there and heard thunder once. It ain't much, but it's something! Developing a strong thirst for storm season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yup, bit of thunder and lightening downtown T.O here. Still some flakes mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 2 rumbles of thunder in the past 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Still just light rain at my place. Temperature now +0.1c. Path is going to be a mess once this freezes over...and we are out of salt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 On 2/21/2014 at 3:52 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Still just light rain at my place. Temperature now +0.1c. Path is going to be a mess once this freezes over...and we are out of salt! Curious to see how the freeze will be. All the fallen snow from today is now a puddle of slush, could be a skating rink by tomorrow. EC is forecasting -3 tomorrow aft here. Guess the above 0 temps are off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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