Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Continue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Beat me to it. You'll always have title to the original. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 23z HRRR coming in with a major uptick in QPF. Has 0.1-0.15" by 10z over Toronto with 0.15-0.25" from oakville to burlington. Totals were half that on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 23z HRRR coming in with a major uptick in QPF. Has 0.1-0.15" by 10z over Toronto with 0.15-0.25" from oakville to burlington. Totals were half that on the previous run. Ah, that was my next question. Thanks. And good to hear. Frankly, precipitation is expanding a lot quicker than I thought. We might get going in Toronto before 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You'll always have title to the original. That un-capitalized w is going to stare me in the face for the next 1000 posts . Looping KBUF radar in GRLevel is really fun right now. Just visualizing that snow getting ever so closer to the surface. Good to be storm tracking again. This storm reminds me a lot of Dec. 26th 2012, where similar areas in Buffalo/NYS got smoked but we still pulled off 18cm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, that was my next question. Thanks. And good to hear. Frankly, precipitation is expanding a lot quicker than I thought. We might get going in Toronto before 6z. That would be nice. Thinking we actually have a shot at 6"+ if ratios can fall into the 13-16:1 range. Good to see the RAP/HRRR trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That would be nice. Thinking we actually have a decent shot at 6"+ if ratios can fall into the 13-16:1 range. Good to see the RAP/HRRR trending in the right direction. Alot will depend on the ratios and the strength of the deformation bands that form with this storm. Hoping we can overperform. Im sticking with my 10-15cm call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 My Dad is starting to get fed up with this winter, saying it has overstayed its welcome with him. I didn't inherit my love of winter weather from him, needless to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Can see the lake band starting to form, straight into Hamilton harbour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 0z NAM was another disappointment. Nowcasting time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 0z NAM was another disappointment. Nowcasting time anyway. Looks a bit better than the 18z, still though...nowcasting time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 0z NAM was another disappointment. Nowcasting time anyway. How does current obs look vs what the models had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How does current obs look vs what the models had? It's about on track at the sfc. The ul might be a bit more robust than progged, but not by much. YKF and YHM now reporting snow. Only a matter of time. Main slug of WCB moisture is obviously going to miss us to the south. Our best shot for overperforming will come from the deformation zone which is pounding parts of KS and MO right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snowing fairly decently right now, heavier than I expected this early in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's about on track at the sfc. The ul might be a bit more robust than progged, but not by much. YKF and YHM now reporting snow. Only a matter of time. Main slug of WCB moisture is obviously going to miss us to the south. Our best shot for overperforming will come from the deformation zone which is pounding parts of KS and MO right now. Nice, thanks man! It seems our best chance like you said is the deformation bands and good snow ratios. The snow is right on our doorstep and should begin in the GTA within the next hour or two. I'm still sticking with my 10-15cm north of 401 and 15-20cm by the Lakeshore call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snowing fairly decently right now, heavier than I expected this early in the event. Nice f-gen band from London to Hamilton. These are some of the nice surprises even when you're away from the best dynamics/moisture. Hopefully it can push north later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Off to a decent start in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Final call:North of 401: 4" South of 401: 5-7" Mississauga/Burlington/Oakville (around the lake): 6-7" Hamilton/Niagara region: 9-10" I still feel really good about my call. I might even up Hamilton's amounts right now. That band from frontogenesis right now looks oh-so juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looking forward to building up my snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm sitting in Hamilton right now and can confirm that it's snowing nicely here. Visibility down to almost 1/2 a mile and decent flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You can nicely see the areas where holes are slowly filling in as a result of the dry air aloft. You'll notice that the areas with some of the coldest lows last night are the areas struggling to hold onto any strong returns. As it scours out, the moisture starts to fill in, but only light intensity to start. You can see the curve around the GTA on the radar. Downtown will be lucky to get in on the fgen band soon, but no way it reaches quite that far north. This is why amounts will be higher near the lake as opposed to inland regions, aside from the fact that areas near the lake are south/closer to the storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -SN has just begun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I still feel really good about my call. I might even up Hamilton's amounts right now. That band from frontogenesis right now looks oh-so juicy. I think what you wake up to in the morning is going to be indicative of whether our amounts are realized. Only a few cms, and it's likely a bust or maybe the low end of the ranges get scraped. Over 5cm and smiles all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The latest RGEM actually didn't look very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think what you wake up to in the morning is going to be indicative of whether our amounts are realized. Only a few cms, and it's likely a bust or maybe the low end of the ranges get scraped. Over 5cm and smiles all around. I've never been one to overplay a situation, however my car was covered in 2cm of snow that was clear about an hr ago. Good rates in this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The latest RGEM actually didn't look very impressive. Since 12z all the major models have trended downward. It's obs/radar/satellite/HRRR/RAP time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think what you wake up to in the morning is going to be indicative of whether our amounts are realized. Only a few cms, and it's likely a bust or maybe the low end of the ranges get scraped. Over 5cm and smiles all around. Well I'll be up at 5:30am so I can confirm that in the morning, haha. GFS still has that system later this week. Shows 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -SN has begun downtown :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -SN at Toronto Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.