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Southern Ontario winter '13-'14 Discussion part II


Ottawa Blizzard

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23z HRRR coming in with a major uptick in QPF. Has 0.1-0.15" by 10z over Toronto with 0.15-0.25" from oakville to burlington. Totals were half that on the previous run.

 

Ah, that was my next question. Thanks. And good to hear.

 

Frankly, precipitation is expanding a lot quicker than I thought. We might get going in Toronto before 6z.

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You'll always have title to the original. :)

 

That un-capitalized w is going to stare me in the face for the next 1000 posts ;).

 

Looping KBUF radar in GRLevel is really fun right now. Just visualizing that snow getting ever so closer to the surface. Good to be storm tracking again.

 

This storm reminds me a lot of Dec. 26th 2012, where similar areas in Buffalo/NYS got smoked but we still pulled off 18cm here.

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Ah, that was my next question. Thanks. And good to hear.

 

Frankly, precipitation is expanding a lot quicker than I thought. We might get going in Toronto before 6z.

That would be nice. Thinking we actually have a shot at 6"+ if ratios can fall into the 13-16:1 range. Good to see the RAP/HRRR trending in the right direction.

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That would be nice. Thinking we actually have a decent shot at 6"+ if ratios can fall into the 13-16:1 range. Good to see the RAP/HRRR trending in the right direction.

Alot will depend on the ratios and the strength of the deformation bands that form with this storm. Hoping we can overperform.

Im sticking with my 10-15cm call for now.

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How does current obs look vs what the models had?

 

It's about on track at the sfc. The ul might be a bit more robust than progged, but not by much.

 

YKF and YHM now reporting snow. Only a matter of time.

 

Main slug of WCB moisture is obviously going to miss us to the south. Our best shot for overperforming will come from the deformation zone which is pounding parts of KS and MO right now.

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It's about on track at the sfc. The ul might be a bit more robust than progged, but not by much.

 

YKF and YHM now reporting snow. Only a matter of time.

 

Main slug of WCB moisture is obviously going to miss us to the south. Our best shot for overperforming will come from the deformation zone which is pounding parts of KS and MO right now.

 

Nice, thanks man! 

 

It seems our best chance like you said is the deformation bands and good snow ratios. The snow is right on our doorstep and should begin in the GTA within the next hour or two.

 

I'm still sticking with my 10-15cm north of 401 and 15-20cm by the Lakeshore call.  

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You can nicely see the areas where holes are slowly filling in as a result of the dry air aloft. You'll notice that the areas with some of the coldest lows last night are the areas struggling to hold onto any strong returns. As it scours out, the moisture starts to fill in, but only light intensity to start. You can see the curve around the GTA on the radar. Downtown will be lucky to get in on the fgen band soon, but no way it reaches quite that far north. This is why amounts will be higher near the lake as opposed to inland regions, aside from the fact that areas near the lake are south/closer to the storm anyway.

 

COMPOSITE_ONT_PRECIP_SNOW_2014_02_05_03_

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I still feel really good about my call. I might even up Hamilton's amounts right now. That band from frontogenesis right now looks oh-so juicy.

 

I think what you wake up to in the morning is going to be indicative of whether our amounts are realized. Only a few cms, and it's likely a bust or maybe the low end of the ranges get scraped. Over 5cm and smiles all around.

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I think what you wake up to in the morning is going to be indicative of whether our amounts are realized. Only a few cms, and it's likely a bust or maybe the low end of the ranges get scraped. Over 5cm and smiles all around.

I've never been one to overplay a situation, however my car was covered in 2cm of snow that was clear about an hr ago. Good rates in this band.

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I think what you wake up to in the morning is going to be indicative of whether our amounts are realized. Only a few cms, and it's likely a bust or maybe the low end of the ranges get scraped. Over 5cm and smiles all around.

 

Well I'll be up at 5:30am so I can confirm that in the morning, haha. 

 

GFS still has that system later this week. Shows 2-4". 

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