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February 4-5th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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KC radar is a thing of beauty...the NW side of the 850 low is always the place to be during snow storms.  Returns will fill back in some over IL/IN as it pulls east. However, the somewhat lackluster WAA snows in a chunk of the WSW counties will keep amounts on the low end of guidance.

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When I wrote collapse, I didn't mean diminish. I mean it'll tend to move more laterally with time rather than to the NE.

 

Anyways, maybe you're not in the mood for a pep talk. From a weenie who's had more busts than redtube, I feel for you.

 

You're good, Mike. I appreciate the pep talks. You know me, always a wrist slitter during events. I tried optimism earlier in the evening, but it's not my thing. ;) 

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Well first hot shot, you need to be looking at the right thing.

 

That's IR...looking at temperatures.

 

See there is this thing called water vapor, try that one out buddy.

 

Open your eyes and you can see the dry slot is still down in MO

 

attachicon.gifrapwvvor_20140205_00.gif

Then what is all this dry air up in central Illinois? And can't you use IR to measure the heights of cloud tops?

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As much of a turd as this has been, it's going exactly as expected for Chicago.

 

yeah...some of the main moisture feed scraped southern portions of LOT to provide a little bonus snow....city on north should snag it's 2 to 4 inches from the defo band (2 without any enhancement....4 or more with some enhancement)

 

the snow did seem fluffier than I expected once we did get into some -SN and SN....so that could help things a bit for some as well

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KC radar is a thing of beauty...the NW side of the 850 low is always the place to be during snow storms.  Returns will fill back in some over IL/IN as it pulls east. However, the somewhat lackluster WAA snows in a chunk of the WSW counties will keep amounts on the low end of guidance.

 

200 frame radar loop from TWX

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TWX-N0Q-1-200

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KC radar is a thing of beauty...the NW side of the 850 low is always the place to be during snow storms.  Returns will fill back in some over IL/IN as it pulls east. However, the somewhat lackluster WAA snows in a chunk of the WSW counties will keep amounts on the low end of guidance.

I agree! that band has just been hovering near the city! going to see some impressive totals there. a lil enhanced area of snow just bubbled up in west central il. looking at the water vapor image that thundersnow posted in his "KO post ;)" it looks like it is tied to a vort max rotating out of the parent trough. guessing overnight here will primarily see light deformation snows with random bursts like these tied to disturbances.

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Clicking on all the individual radar sites, really kind of a fascinating storm to watch unfold. The pulses and collapses of returns are kinda cool. ILX is a good one right now. Current loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=ILX-N0Q-1-24

 

Galesburg to Burlington been sitting under a nice little band for awhile now too...it also appears to be expanding a bit as well

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LAF is gonna bust hard. Definitely won't make the lower end of predicted totals. 3-4" is probably gonna be it. We'll probably shut off soon and the defo snows will graze or miss to the north. IND and east will do well enough, as they're racking up with the WAA snows.

 

 

Can't we get through one freakin storm without you basically cancelling it?  :lol:

 

Prospect of super high totals not looking good but 6+ is all but locked up and still think we have a chance at 8+

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