Central Illinois Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe a dumb weenie, but the models certainly had this dry slot. GFS may be handling it better than the NAM...but I don't see anything to panic about right now. Yea ILX AFD didn't mention much about it they did bump up totals another 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 See some very random floaters here at 88 and 355. Nothing major by any means, but it's a good sign for sure. Calls for another few hours before saturation may be in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not that I know jack. But I have seen worse dry sluts. Radar shows a nice developing deformation band and taking on the look of a classic winter cyclone. Oh, the overall presentation is nice. +SN in the comma head area and on east just north of the dry punch. The modeled area of sig totals will no doubt work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Fire breathing lizard? See that...on the 18z NAM clown map. I'm totally sober right now. Seriously. 2:4 18z NAM clown.gif That's a top 5 all time synoptic snowfalls for CLE on that run. I'm going to say that's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 In KS KFOE 041953Z 03010KT M1/4SM R31/1200V1800FT +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP179 P0005 T10501072 KTOP 042032Z 04015KT 1/4SM +SN VV010 M04/M07 A3003 KLWC 042019Z AUTO 05012G17KT 1/4SM +SN VV011 M04/M07 A3004 RMK AO2 P0001 T10441072 Yep, just noticed when I went to look. Was kind of shocked to see those sfc obs with the satellite presentation looking like it did... right on the East and North flank of that upper air low. Its doing its job back there for sure. Its basically down to Now-casting anyways. Will be interesting to see how this translates Eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 kind of want geos to jackpot just so we can get his infectious optimism back...although he might just be broke until spring If this over performs, great. If not, well then... I hope things swing to milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ex past facto, but IND says the 12z NAM has been tossed. For those that were sweating it, sweat no more. FOCUS OBVIOUSLY REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN RELATIVELY WELL CLUSTERED AROUND A SOLUTION PULLING THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NAM REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY/WARMER OUTLIER...BUT MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION INDICATES CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH HAS CONTAMINATED ITS SOLUTION...AND IT DOES NOT HAVE THE SUPPORT OF ITS OWN SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE/SREF. AS EXPECTED...PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN AS ALL SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WETBULB EFFECTS/EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST HAVE KEPT THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM NOSE ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO BRING THIS MIX A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS AND OBSERVED TRENDS UPSTREAM. ALL FACTORS CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARD SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EITHER ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...OR A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. SYNOPTIC SUPPORT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN RECENT RUNS WITH STRONG Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE VALUES BOTH ALOFT AND IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MESOSCALE FACTORS REMAIN A CONCERN AND HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ALL SNOW AREAS UP TO A FOOT IN SOME PLACES AS RATES/RATIOS COULD BE INCREASED BY BANDING THIS EVENING. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CONTINUES TO BE NOTED ALONG WITH STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPV INDICATING THIS BANDING POTENTIAL...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND THUS THE OUTSIDE SHOT FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST BANDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE STORM TO BEGIN WINDING DOWN AFTER 2 AM AS STRONGEST LIFT BEGINS TO EXIT AND A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WTIH PERHAPS LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 -SN in the hawkeye-cycloneville area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Environment Canada now warning of up to 8" with a new heavy snow warning in Windsor Well whatever Windsor gets, I get, considering if I stood on my roof I could see them from the house, so I'm down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RUC back to showing the lake enahnced weenie band along the cook shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 With -SN at C75 south of 80, it's 1-2hr ahead of the 18z RAP to saturate looking at fcst soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Might only be another hour, maybe two. Probably less than an hour for you and just over an hour for here/ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 heavy band visual on composite doing work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 See some very random floaters here at 88 and 355. Nothing major by any means, but it's a good sign for sure. Calls for another few hours before saturation may be in jeopardy. Nothing floating around yet just east of you in Oakbrook Terrace (where I work). I'm at the corner of Butterfield & 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ^ 4km NAM showing the LEhS/LES nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 -SN even up to RFD now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT punted on LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Within that light pink area I would definitely be expecting good snows to be falling... The X there is where I approximate the core of the upper air system. Maroon is that dry punch, again just left, in that light blue area, the corresponding heavier snows. The purple areas you have good enhancement from the WAA ahead and further W cooling cloud tops due to dynamics moving in from the S. Yellow areas highlighting good diffluence helping to enhance lift. Wherever that light pink area translates Eastward into the diffluent flow is gonna get the brunt of this. I guess I expected satellite representation in the cold sector to look a bit more "classic" but its still not horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not messing around here, 1" in the first hour. Even with a little sleet mixing in visibilities still 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOT punted on LE Doesn't sound very promising. SOME POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A LITTLE LAKE-ENHANCEMENT IN SNOWFALL ALONG/NEAR THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT...WHEN LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT FAIRLY SHALLOW EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS/SMALL DELTA-T VALUES SUGGESTING WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION. COLD WATER/SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER IN SPOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEGATIVE FACTORS...THOUGH SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE FLUX AND CONVERGENCE MAY ADD A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF/TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR FAR NORTHEAST IL. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT PARAMETERS DO IMPROVE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS TO THE EAST AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN...THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND NORTH-SOUTH BANDING IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSITORY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE/PORTER COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ACCOUNT ABOVE REASONING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doesn't sound very promising. on the plus side, they still think 3-5 for the WWA counties which is a fine hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DTX very slowly getting beefier with the snow totals in the far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nothing floating around yet just east of you in Oakbrook Terrace (where I work). I'm at the corner of Butterfield & 22nd. Yeah nothing to write home about yet. But I'm hoping things pick up with the heavier band moving in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see flake size later tonight. Models pegging a DGZ of 300mb late evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It will be interesting to see flake size later tonight. Models pegging a DGZ of 300mb late evening and overnight. a lock for dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 21z RAP. Sharp northern cut off. LAF is the new MSN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Getting ready for a sleet fest here in Louisville. Oh well, I'll take that over rain or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Misty, pixie dust here.... but we just started about 30ish minutes ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at satellite imagery and appears the upper air low is just W or SW of Wichita KS. Also the dry punch runs essentially from SE Kansas/SW Missouri/NE Oklahoma Northeast right into Central IL. Just left of that we are getting heavy snow reports around Galesburg. But back in KS the snowfall reports don't really seem to impressive and the satellite wouldn't really suggest real heavy snows falling. I haven't looked at surface obs back there yet but I have some major concerns for this achieving the higher end forecasted amounts. And remember the models have been to wet all year typically. So go with the somewhat lower QPF's, that fact we got a huge dry slot to overcome, dry air at the surface to overcome, and a system that looks a bit disjointed and that's why I have the concerns I do. great analysis. pretty much what I have been thinking. the deformation zone near KC looks pretty beefy but in a localized area. but overall it doesn't seem impressive. so far waa snows haven't been generous at my location due to that dry air it had to fight off. all the banding def seems to be staying around I72 and south. im def concerned of us achieving that snow totals forecasted. that dry punch is a lot more aggressive than models ever depicted. we shall see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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