Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I, too, have noticed the huge surge NE'ward of that dry slot... and it almost looks like the comma head of the system is getting a bit disjointed from the moisture on the SE side of the system. This would almost seem to say the upper air low is perhaps a bit W in reality compared to the models. But as this pivots East this evening and tonight that dry slot should gradually fill right back in with no issues. This trend will certainly need to be watched though...if it surges in to IL and combined with the dry lower layers someone could really get screwed on totals and that could translate East right across Indiana too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowing nicely here right now. Roads already getting greasy. What a head fake by the 12z NAM, huh? Drive home from work is going to suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6" Geos lolli on the 18z NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 -SN at GBG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Drive home from work is going to suck! You can say that again. Southwest side of Indy to Muncie. I figure it'll take about three hours. Lol Ironically, the book on tape I have right now is Ernest Shackleton's book on his failed Antarctic expedition.SREF plumes for Muncie now up to just shy of 10" with a half-dozen members over a foot. Maybe Muncie will actually jackpot a storm like this. Good luck everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 kind of want geos to jackpot just so we can get his infectious optimism back...although he might just be broke until spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plume means continue to rise for DTW, made a big jump from 7" and change to over 9" with a spread from 7" to 13".Getting into territory now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Drive home from work is going to suck! Enjoy! Drive safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowing nicely here...very fine flakes...roads coated already...off for a little Makers Mark and things for dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 friend just texted saying very heavy snow in Galesburg right now... and big flakes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I, too, have noticed the huge surge NE'ward of that dry slot... and it almost looks like the comma head of the system is getting a bit disjointed from the moisture on the SE side of the system. This would almost seem to say the upper air low is perhaps a bit W in reality compared to the models. But as this pivots East this evening and tonight that dry slot should gradually fill right back in with no issues. This trend will certainly need to be watched though...if it surges in to IL and combined with the dry lower layers someone could really get screwed on totals and that could translate East right across Indiana too. Good info, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 kind of want geos to jackpot just so we can get his infectious optimism back...although he might just be broke until spring He gone. Snowing nicely here...very fine flakes...roads coated already...off for a little Makers Mark and things for dinner That's how you do it. Enjoy the storm my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Tiny flakes here also. But the roads and sidewalks are all covered once again. I am growing weary of moving all this white stuff. Filled up the blower tank so I am ready if the totals get to *stupid* again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Fire breathing lizard? See that...on the 18z NAM clown map. I'm totally sober right now. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Fire breathing lizard? See that...on the 18z NAM clown map. I'm totally sober right now. Seriously. 2:4 18z NAM clown.gif Somehow the NAM is drier than the GFS for SEMI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at satellite imagery and appears the upper air low is just W or SW of Wichita KS. Also the dry punch runs essentially from SE Kansas/SW Missouri/NE Oklahoma Northeast right into Central IL. Just left of that we are getting heavy snow reports around Galesburg. But back in KS the snowfall reports don't really seem to impressive and the satellite wouldn't really suggest real heavy snows falling. I haven't looked at surface obs back there yet but I have some major concerns for this achieving the higher end forecasted amounts. And remember the models have been to wet all year typically. So go with the somewhat lower QPF's, that fact we got a huge dry slot to overcome, dry air at the surface to overcome, and a system that looks a bit disjointed and that's why I have the concerns I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Fire breathing lizard? See that...on the 18z NAM clown map. I'm totally sober right now. Seriously. 2:4 18z NAM clown.gif It needs a 16 eye... preferrably around the northwest side. You could claim a nostril for your area. Lizard complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It needs a 16 eye... preferrably around the northwest side. You could claim a nostril for your area. Lizard complete. Good call. Moderate snow here. Coming down nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at satellite imagery and appears the upper air low is just W or SW of Wichita KS. Also the dry punch runs essentially from SE Kansas/SW Missouri/NE Oklahoma Northeast right into Central IL. Just left of that we are getting heavy snow reports around Galesburg. But back in KS the snowfall reports don't really seem to impressive and the satellite wouldn't really suggest real heavy snows falling. I haven't looked at surface obs back there yet but I have some major concerns for this achieving the higher end forecasted amounts. And remember the models have been to wet all year typically. So go with the somewhat lower QPF's, that fact we got a huge dry slot to overcome, dry air at the surface to overcome, and a system that looks a bit disjointed and that's why I have the concerns I do. In KS KFOE 041953Z 03010KT M1/4SM R31/1200V1800FT +SN FZFG VV006 M05/M07 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP179 P0005 T10501072 KTOP 042032Z 04015KT 1/4SM +SN VV010 M04/M07 A3003 KLWC 042019Z AUTO 05012G17KT 1/4SM +SN VV011 M04/M07 A3004 RMK AO2 P0001 T10441072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I haven't looked at surface obs back there yet but I have some major concerns for this achieving the higher end forecasted amounts. Widespread 5-10" amounts in C. KS, and 2-6" in the TOP/KC area...Thus far. SN/+SN continues down there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Fire breathing lizard? See that...on the 18z NAM clown map. I'm totally sober right now. Seriously. 2:4 18z NAM clown.gif So that's where my stash went. Even running with a drier model (EURO) as Justin suggested, I'm thinking I can still pull off 6" IMBY, given the ratios will be pretty good and a solid forecast DGZ. Unfortunately a lot of the snow for me will come in the wee early morning and work hours, so won't be able to enjoy this one the way I'd like to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 first random flakes of the event began in the last 5 minutes here....nothing of great substance....but a good sign not pixies....but, larger ones....but literally countable as they fly through the air....not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Widespread 5-10" amounts in C. KS, and 2-6" in the TOP/KC area...Thus far. SN/+SN continues down there too. Not that I know jack. But I have seen worse dry sluts. Radar shows a nice developing deformation band and taking on the look of a classic winter cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 first random flakes of the event began in the last 5 minutes here....nothing of great substance....but a good sign not pixies....but, larger ones....but literally countable as they fly through the air....not much Hmmm. Teaser flakes?I'll ride my winter theme-if it can find a way to snow around here this year,it will. A lot of science in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not sure about the euros track but u do notice qpf at dtw increased from 0.32" at its 00z run to 0 52" at 12z. 12z nam craziness won't pan out but looking like we see another nice snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 first random flakes of the event began in the last 5 minutes here....nothing of great substance....but a good sign not pixies....but, larger ones....but literally countable as they fly through the air....not much Not bad... Heavy banding moving in is speeding up saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not sure about the euros track but u do notice qpf at dtw increased from 0.32" at its 00z run to 0 52" at 12z. 12z nam craziness won't pan out but looking like we see another nice snowstorm here. Anything over 6" would be great from my point of view, but 0.52" would likely yield about that, seems a bit high still but exciting to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plume means continue to rise for DTW, made a big jump from 7" and change to over 9" with a spread from 7" to 13". Getting into territory now Environment Canada now warning of up to 8" with a new heavy snow warning in Windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe a dumb weenie, but the models certainly had this dry slot. GFS may be handling it better than the NAM...but I don't see anything to panic about right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not bad... Heavy banding moving in is speeding up saturation. Might only be another hour, maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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