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February 4-5th Winter Storm Part 3


Whitelakeroy

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Nice big dendrites underneath the band here in far north Naperville. Good returns starting to develop and move up from the south too.

Sent from my SCH-I535

Great setup for us right now. This band is nearly stationary and is really cranking. 3-6" looking good, maybe more if these bands keep developing and moving in from the south.
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Great setup for us right now. This band is nearly stationary and is really cranking. 3-6" looking good, maybe more if these bands keep developing and moving in from the south.

Agreed, starting to get concerned for the higher end of the forecasted range up here given trends on KLOT and upstream. The slow movement of the upper level features is really going to keep us in a good spot through the night it appears.

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LOT mentioned the f-gen band potential in the 6z aviation update last night...Looks like it worked out.

 

 

GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN F-GEN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE
CHICAGO AREA RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW WITH VSBY LESS
THAN A MILE POSSIBLE. DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT EXACTLY
WHERE THE BAND WILL DEVELOP...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04-09Z. IF IT DOES DEVELOP...VSBY IN 1/2 TO 3/4 SM
RANGE WOULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

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Updated daily record for IND.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1242 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT INDIANAPOLIS IN YESTERDAY...

A NEW RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL WAS SET AT INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
FOR FEBRUARY 4. A MEASUREMENT OF 6.8 INCHES FELL...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 3.6 INCHES SET IN 1948. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SAME
STORM WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
1154 PM CST

VERY WELL-DEFINED UPPER WAVE ON WATER VAPOR NEAR MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST MO CONTINUES TO ROTATE TOWARD THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS STRENGTHENED OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IL AND IN
AND WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY THROUGH 3-4 AM...BEFORE
EVOLVING EAST. CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THIS ALONG WITH LIKELY
FRONTOGENESIS...AS INFERRED BY VAD PROFILES AND AMDAR DATA INDICATING
A SHARP WIND SHIFT AROUND 10KFT...HAS FURTHER BLOSSOMED A SWATH OF
SNOW FROM SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST METRO OF
CHICAGO. IN ADDITION...UPPER SUPPORT AND SYSTEM DEFORMATION WILL
WORK OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE IMPRESSIVE REFLECTIVITY...VISIBILITY AT SITES UNDERNEATH
HAVE NOT DROPPED TOO FAR YET...POSSIBLY STILL DUE TO SOME BATTLE
WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR. THAT WILL LIKELY NOT BE A PROBLEM MUCH
LONGER. ALSO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS
COOLING OCCURS ALOFT...SO LARGER FLAKES MAY BE PRESENT FOR
QUICKER ACCUMS. THE QUESTION IS IF THIS BAND REMAINS STATIONARY
VERY LONG...WHICH WITH THE HIGH ECHOES IN THE ILX CWA MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO IT COULD LEAD TO SOME REALLY QUICK ACCUMS...WITH
HIGHER END ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE I-88 TO I-80 CORRIDOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE 3-6 INCHES IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY
LOOKS TO COVER THE RANGE. THIS BAND OR BANDS OF SNOW COULD RESULT
IN HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THIS CORRIDOR THAN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
WARNING...WHICH CAN HAPPEN WITH THESE COMPLEX SYSTEMS. BUT IMPACT
WISE WE WILL LIKELY SEE EXPANDING BLOWING SNOW AREA WIDE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. SNOW STILL LOOKS TO
SLOWLY TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
 

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Yeah, this is a tough one for us, probably will be just south of us much of the overnight.  Hopefully saturates soon.

 

starting out a little late but models always showed it would struggle until around now..  don't have the best feeling for you and me north but I'll let it play out a bit

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starting out a little late but models always showed it would struggle until around now..  don't have the best feeling for you and me north but I'll let it play out a bit

 

True, I didn't think it would start until after 10, but after midnight for myself is even worse.  Also, lolz at MKX going with hourly snowfall accumulation forecasts.  It serves them right this storm fails just for that weenie forecast.

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True, I didn't think it would start until after 10, but after midnight for myself is even worse.  Also, lolz at MKX going with hourly snowfall accumulation forecasts.  It serves them right this storm fails just for that weenie forecast.

 

 

Gotta do something when you're bored at the office.

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