Gilbertfly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 took a little while, but previously cleared surfaces starting to whiten up...not a coating yet, but getting whiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:32 PM, *IndyMeso* said: Its rockin in Noblesville! Drive home was awful but I would say a solid inch already. No doubt about that.. Luckily got out of our office in Carmel about 45 mins to Lebanon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So does anyone know what's the deal with the SEMI forecast? I haven't followed this storm closely at all, but DTX has Washtenaw down for 2-4", but the 15Z SREF plume for both KDTW and KJXN is more in the 6-9" range. None of the ensemble members are below 6". What's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:39 PM, Northern_IN_Wx said: First flurries here. bumping snow fcst up to 6-8" (up from 4-6")...solid 8-12" to the south. What are your thoughts on the dry slot that folks are concerned with? I like your 8-12 call...my locale is on the border with your southern zone, Blackford....but technically KIND zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:36 PM, Central Illinois said: hopefully you can cash in! seems like the sweet spot is sullivan to decatur as of right now yea the models nailed down the banding near the I72 corridor. the deformation band is my only hope. lol. I need to move further south Peoria county always seems to be the cutoff area. it is crazy! eagerly watchin this dry slot though. could come close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:40 PM, mjwise said: So does anyone know what's the deal with the SEMI forecast? I haven't followed this storm closely at all, but DTX has Washtenaw down for 2-4", but the 15Z SREF plume for both KDTW and KJXN is more in the 6-9" range. None of the ensemble members are below 6". What's up with that? In case you haven't noticed they normally go conservative with their headlines/snow amounts at DTX. Just their MO and honestly not a bad approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Talking with a friend in Rushville, and they are getting sleet currently.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:43 PM, Northern_IN_Wx said: In case you haven't noticed they normally go conservative with their headlines/snow amounts at DTX. Just their MO and honestly not a bad approach. People are expecting maybe two inches around here. There was way more buzz from the Saturday snow/rain/snowstorm. We are running out of space to cram new snow too. Guess that's what I deserve for just point and clicking this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Been snowing a few hours now, but it's been extremely light up until the last 15 mins or so. Just a dusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:32 PM, *IndyMeso* said: Its rockin in Noblesville! Drive home was awful but I would say a solid inch already. Gotcha beat by an inch. Luckily *knock on wood* no big problems yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Feeling good about a solid snowstorm here. A lot of our snow will be from deformation and that usually carries surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:52 PM, michsnowfreak said: Feeling good about a solid snowstorm here. A lot of our snow will be from deformation and that usually carries surprises. I'll be interested to see if the south-north gradient is as sharp as advertised. I'm on the far south side of Ann Arbor and wasn't really expecting more than an inch or two (my point and click was 2-3 as recently as this morning), but then I just now saw the yawning gap between the numerical guidance and local headlines, so we'll see where we end up? I know DTX plays it conservative, but lowballing the low end of guidance that's been pretty decent this season by 33-50% is a bit too conservative IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Started snowing here about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dryslot approaching fast for northern Illinois. Better start that pivot soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:15 PM, mimillman said: Dryslot approaching fast for northern Illinois. Better start that pivot soon. 0-0.1% chance the dryslot makes it to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:15 PM, mimillman said: Dryslot approaching fast for northern Illinois. Better start that pivot soon. Radar looks fine to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:52 PM, michsnowfreak said: Feeling good about a solid snowstorm here. A lot of our snow will be from deformation and that usually carries surprises. My call 3 days ago for 3-6" is looking just about right. Hopefully we can get some surprises as you say ... my thinking is that would be due to higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 10:58 PM, mjwise said: I'll be interested to see if the south-north gradient is as sharp as advertised. I'm on the far south side of Ann Arbor and wasn't really expecting more than an inch or two (my point and click was 2-3 as recently as this morning), but then I just now saw the yawning gap between the numerical guidance and local headlines, so we'll see where we end up? I know DTX plays it conservative, but lowballing the low end of guidance that's been pretty decent this season by 33-50% is a bit too conservative IMO. It seems like most models had a NW bump earlier today. Anyways I'm on the north side of Ann Arbor. Here's to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Completely stopped here. Radar north of KIND is evaporating. Solid 2 inches so far. Praying to the snow gods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:15 PM, mimillman said: Dryslot approaching fast for northern Illinois. Better start that pivot soon. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:22 PM, Thundersnow12 said: lol What? Look at that dry air intrusion on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still nothing up this way. Will say the overcast over the lake seemed fairly heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:23 PM, mimillman said: What? Look at that dry air intrusion on radar. The dry slot is way down south in MO/AR/OK...Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:16 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 0-0.1% chance the dryslot makes it to Chicago. DTX apparently thinks it's a dry slot also. http://www.ebay.com/itm/Unreleased-Promo-Sample-Drake-OVO-Air-Jordan-Retro-10s-/231135900438?pt=US_Men_s_Athletic_Footwear&hash=item35d0c5f316 Quote MODELS ALSO SHOW A DRY SLOT AFFECTING THE REGION AS THEVORT MAX PASSES BY AFTER 06Z, WHICH WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO DEFORMATION SNOW. THE DRY SLOT MAY RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOWFALL RATES , BUT NOT AN END TO IT AS THE DGZ SHIFTS LOWER IN THE COLUMN BY09Z AND BECOMES SATURATED WITH DEFORMATION PROVIDING THE LIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My post from late on Jan 27. Nailed it. This is looking like another STL/LAF/DTW special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:24 PM, Chicago Storm said: The dry slot is way down south in MO/AR/OK...Not even close. Not the healthiest looking comma head: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:15 PM, mimillman said: Dryslot approaching fast for northern Illinois. Better start that pivot soon. not likely. May look like it's gonna hit us here in N IL, but this thing will pivot way before the slot gets here. Downstate and into IN is far more likely to be affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that dry slot filled back in nicely across IL as those dynamics start pulling out of KS working with that moist, upward, diffluent flow. Nice banded appearance from Central IL back into Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri. I wouldn't be shocked to see some 5-6" amounts up to I80 if those enhanced returns keep coming across the area all evening and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:26 PM, cyclone77 said: My post from late on Jan 27. Nailed it. This is looking like another STL/LAF/DTW special. Not quite. We're going to be impacted, but I wouldn't call it a "special" for DTW. It's more like a STL-LAF-CLE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 On 2/4/2014 at 11:23 PM, mimillman said: What? Look at that dry air intrusion on radar. I'll say it again, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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