jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0959 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/FAR SERN MO/FAR NWRN TN/WRN KY/FAR SRN IL AND SWRN IND CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 041559Z - 042030Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A 75-100 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NERN AR TO FAR SRN IL/SWRN IND AND WRN KY. THIS PRECIP-TYPE WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN AR...FAR SERN MO AND FAR NWRN TN/WRN KY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH FAR SRN IL...FAR SWRN IND AND THE REST OF FAR WRN KY AFTER 18Z. DISCUSSION...AT 15Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A RATHER LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING N/NEWD ACROSS AR...WITH LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING TSTMS OVER SRN/CENTRAL AR INTO NWRN MS AND ADJACENT FAR SWRN TN. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING SLOWLY TO AROUND 32 F OVER NWRN MS INTO SWRN TN WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS LOCATED IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER /S-E SIDE/ OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR SERN AR TO NWRN TN...THEN ENEWD ALONG THE WRN KY/TN BORDER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KY. WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 32 F IN WRN TN AND PART OF SRN KY INTO THE AFTERNOON...NELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL TEND TO REMAIN BELOW 32 F. MOISTENING OF AN INITIALLY RELATIVELY DRY LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE... PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPING FROM NERN AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG A 50-60 KT LLJ INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LIMITING THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...THE EXPECTATION OF SURFACE TRAJECTORIES REMAINING NELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH RESULTS IN GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 32 F FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA PER 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WITH THE 850 MB 0 C ISOTHERM EXTENDING FROM NEAR STL TO SDF AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BECOMING THE PRIMARY PRECIP-TYPE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO AROUND 1 INCH SHOULD SUPPORT THE GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES INTO THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE COLUMN SATURATES...INITIAL PRECIP-TYPES COULD BE A MIX OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET...ESPECIALLY WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ..PETERS.. 02/04/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 THREAD TITLE GOES WELL WITH SPC TEXT! (thanks for starting one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow! Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 156 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH... .AT MID AFTERNOON... DEEP MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET. TNZ004-050000- /O.UPG.KMEG.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140205T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KMEG.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140205T0000Z/ HENRY- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PARIS 156 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO FOUR TENTHS INCH OF ICE...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF SLEET. * TIMING...THROUGH 6 PM CST TODAY. * IMPACTS...ROADS AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE DOWNED AND COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SLEET MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET. TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. Edit: The warning was just extended to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Family is reporting an ice storm under way in Paris. Trees and powerlines covered, temperature is 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stovepipe.....I've got family in Murray. Said its just rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stovepipe.....I've got family in Murray. Said its just rain right now. Temps in Paris are wavering up and down by a couple of degrees. Ice doesn't seem to be on the roads yet, mostly just elevated surfaces as of a little before 3pm CST. A few large limbs are down on my parent's property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are crap,they missed this one.Big ice issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any obs from Union City? Update from Paris. Conditions are not too bad at the moment. Mostly icicles and sagging pine trees. Roads seem ok. Biggest deal has been the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN417 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 ...ICE STORM IN PROGRESS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE... .SHORT TERM... VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION HAS UNFOLDED TODAY WITHUNEXPECTED FREEZING RAIN CAUSING SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONSACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RESULTING IN A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR STEWART COUNTY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FORBENTON/HOUSTON/MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. DESPITE ALL MODELS SHOWINGTEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVEREMAINED NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF A CAMDEN TOCLARKSVILLE LINE ALL DAY LONG. THIS HAS BEEN APPARENTLY DUE TO ANINVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MIDSTATE PER LAPS ANALYSIS...WHICH HAS CREATED CONTINUOUS CAA IN THENORTHWEST BUT STRONG WAA IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW IN THE40S AND 50S. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE OF LITTLE USE...HAVE BASED THETONIGHT/TOMORROW PERIOD FORECAST HEAVILY OFF CURRENT CONDITIONSAND RADAR IMAGERY UPSTREAM. WITH NORTHWEST MID TN REMAINING ON THEWEST SIDE OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...APPEARS TEMPERATURESWILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THE REST OF THE DAY AND THUS MODERATE TOOCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUNDMIDNIGHT. LATEST REPORTS INDICATE AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OFICE HAS ACCUMULATED IN STEWART COUNTY...AND TOTAL AMOUNTS OF ONEHALF INCH OF ICE ACCUM OR LOCALLY HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESEAMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGEALONG WITH ICY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUM IS EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH CORRESPONDINGLYLESSER IMPACTS. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVYRAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA THE REST OF TODAY AS STRONGMOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNINGSTRIKES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY OVERCENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES AS K INDEX VALUES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER30S DUE TO WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATETONIGHT WILL SWEEP BULK OF RAIN OUT OF THE CWA...BUT CAA IN ITSWAKE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE ANDEVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST LATETONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Pancho is on it, no word about Lefty yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 28 degrees with enough snow flurries to dust car tops and blow around on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN527 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061400-STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI527 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014 ...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE... LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF MIDDLETENNESSEE THIS EVENING...AND REPORTS INDICATE A DUSTING OF SNOWHAS FALLEN ON ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INCLUDINGIN CLARKSVILLE AND SPRINGFIELD. ALTHOUGH ANY LIGHT SNOW ORFLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...A DUSTINGOF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THEAREA...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS WHERE SNOW CANACCUMULATE. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF DRIVING TONIGHT AND THURSDAYMORNING AS ROADWAYS MAY BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ONBRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Managed to get a heavy dusting this morning, probably 1/4th inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Some good returns showing up on radar headed to SE Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 West of the Memphis is looking good also,hope it dont dry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I would assume that most of this is virga. Anyone got obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 33.8 here, nothing falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 34 here and overcast. Nothing falling, however. This morning around 9am had a few minuscule flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It snowed overnight and into this morning here but the low levels have been drying out all day. Several areas of moisture moved over and produced nothing but virga here this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Light snow filling the air in maryville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 33 here with flurries. Not much ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Light snow filling the air in maryville You always rob my flizzards, always. Nothing here yet at 32.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Reb you are forgiven, flurries in west Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 light windowshield dustings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Maybe this system today will over perform,we got flurries already falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I noticed brine trucks running and some full loads of salt driving through town. Checked the forecast and saw the WWA for the OHX Plateau counties to my west. 60% snow tonight and tomorrow here. May get a surprise 1 inch out of this. Sunny and 33 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I see The Waterboy lurking, any Arkansas obs for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I see The Waterboy lurking, any Arkansas obs for us? Use the WSR,its great picking up flakes http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=nqa&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Little Rock http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lzk&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Any obs along I-40 in the west? Looks like flurries trickling up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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