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February 4-5 Snow, Ice, Sleet, Rain Obs


Ralph Wiggum

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A little Monday morning QBish but I thought the NWS early call of 4-8" of snow for my locale was out of the typical conservative nature considering the setup.

 

I figured it was because the models were trending that way. Late yesterday was like a winter weather lovers fantasy week after the snow yesterday and the apparent potential for tonight and the weekend. Reminds me of "if it seems to good to be true, it probably is". Yet it has happened before, in fact we're about at the 4 year anniversary  :).

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I figured it was because the models were trending that way. Late yesterday was like a winter weather lovers fantasy week after the snow yesterday and the apparent potential for tonight and the weekend. Reminds me of "if it seems to good to be true, it probably is". Yet it has happened before, in fact we're about at the 4 year anniversary  :).

I depend on the NWS to remove the model trends/emotional "potential" aspect from my forecast equation.
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Light freezing rain media Delaware county 30 had just a few pellets all liquid thinking gfs will do better with this one channel 10 snow map has 0 chance of verifying 

 

Maybe at the surface, though that's rare.  However, its the NAM which has been less snowy overall.

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Isn't ZR still winter weather....this looks like a significant winter weather event to me if we have ZR for 6 or 8 hours....

I figured it was because the models were trending that way. Late yesterday was like a winter weather lovers fantasy week after the snow yesterday and the apparent potential for tonight and the weekend. Reminds me of "if it seems to good to be true, it probably is". Yet it has happened before, in fact we're about at the 4 year anniversary  :).

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