White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Saw 6abc this evening with a graphic that had you in the ice bulls-eye .50" I believe I really don't think computers can accurately predict amount of ice build up..too many factors to be considered, many of which aren't built in to the models. My thinking is they only give a general snapshot... I saw that same graphic, disconcerting to say the least. However, with all due respect to the vendors, I find with my microclimate out here I do better basing my forecast on a AmWx discussion/ NWS/local climo experience blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Haven't gotten any obs confirming, but based on the CC product from the State College radar, it looks like precip will start as sleet and freezing rain all the way out in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ray people just to my south (I'm in Hershey) reporting it BEGAN as freezing rain. We were progged for 2-4 inches of snow to ip to zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Haven't gotten any obs confirming, but based on the CC product from the State College radar, it looks like precip will start as sleet and freezing rain all the way out in Harrisburg. Yep, looks like snow is out of the equation for many if not all of us. 29.6...29.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I saw that same graphic, disconcerting to say the least. However, with all due respect to the vendors, I find with my microclimate out here I do better basing my forecast on a AmWx discussion/ NWS/local climo experience blend. ^^^This. I use a similar blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 with the NYC area currently around 32/33...(newark = 34) I would tend to think the slightly milder GFS is verifying better than NAM. any other nowcasting insight is welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am thinking the surface is gonna warm fast. Based on current temps, modeled mid level warmth and precip rates. I think you will need to be far north and west for big icing. Thinking ABE north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yep, looks like snow is out of the equation for many if not all of us. 29.6...29.5 Snap and dagnabbit, seriously. Still 30F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Now up to 30.9 degrees in North Wilmington. I don't think this will be a big deal here, and I think snow is pretty much out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Now up to 30.9 degrees in North Wilmington. I don't think this will be a big deal here, and I think snow is pretty much out of the question. I think well just have to "wait and watch" at this point....too close to "call" for many on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am thinking the surface is gonna warm fast. Based on current temps, modeled mid level warmth and precip rates. I think you will need to be far north and west for big icing. Thinking ABE north. I'm sure you've seen this before, but sometimes a picture's worth a thousand words: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-87.93,36.75,1769 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 28.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Haven't gotten any obs confirming, but based on the CC product from the State College radar, it looks like precip will start as sleet and freezing rain all the way out in Harrisburg. Confirmed: Freezing rain and sleet in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Began as freezing rain in Hershey. Now moderate freezing rain with a few pellets mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Confirmed: Freezing rain and sleet in Harrisburg.Yet Sheena just reported heavy snow in Harrisburg?And..... http://www.my-cast.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 23 F cloudy up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yet Sheena just reported heavy snow in Harrisburg? And..... www.My-cast.com Confirmed...just heard it. I'll take Ray's word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 light freezing rain - 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Unknown precip means sleet/freezing rain as does a visibility of 6 miles. Sheena is wrong http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=250&y=204&site=ctp&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=250&map_y=204#.UvG5uH-9KK0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There is no snow out here near Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Unknown precip means sleet/freezing rain as does a visibility of 6 miles. Sheena is wrong http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=250&y=204&site=ctp&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=250&map_y=204#.UvG5uH-9KK0 Not always, but I was actually going off this: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.201288395211165&lon=-76.74053192138672#.UvG6JLRKghI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not saying we don't get hit but best guess is that we miss the worst, LV gets destroyed by ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm sure you've seen this before, but sometimes a picture's worth a thousand words: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-87.93,36.75,1769 pretty cool, but those are 850's. Would be neater if they had a surface version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 All ZR has commenced here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yet Sheena just reported heavy snow in Harrisburg? And..... http://www.my-cast.com She's from Florida if I recall, so probably isn't quite used to winter weather yet. She probably just looked at radar and assumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 pretty cool, but those are 850's. Would be neater if they had a surface version. There is - click on the Earth logo and you get a menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 pretty cool, but those are 850's. Would be neater if they had a surface version. Just click on "earth" in the bottom left-hand corner and select surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 30F and light rain here too. Guess that makes it freezing rain, technically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Unknown precip means sleet/freezing rain as does a visibility of 6 miles. Sheena is wrong http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=250&y=204&site=ctp&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=250&map_y=204#.UvG5uH-9KK0 I would say something again about this particular Met but will probably receive another warning point for doing so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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