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February 4th-5th Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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Everyone should go back and read pages 9-11 it was some of the most intese winter weather I have seen. Constant lighting and snow the size of ping pong balls or even bigger.

 

Here are some highlights:

 

The snow was very heavy for a time in southern Westchester, though I didn't see any lightning there.

 

More importantly, the outcome demonstrated that the NAM's near "no snow" solution for New York City, southern Westchester County and southern Fairfield County was out to lunch. Central Park picked up 4.0", JFK received 2.2", and 6"-10" fell across southern Westchester and Fairfield Counties with even more farther north. 

 

This is not the first time the NAM has tried to blast the warmth into the mid-levels of the atmosphere  and wound up missing the "thumping" that ultimately occurred. The RGEM and HRRR outperformed the NAM, which had been a sort of outlier among the global and high-resolution models. 

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Yes, the RAP an HRRR were very accurate with their thumping. They were also, I believe, the only ones that specifically showed all levels below freezing for at least a few hours. That is what I based most of my forecast for early last night, in getting a front end dump of heavy snow and said that it would likely be our heaviest snow of the year in these bands. I called for 3-5" for NENJ/NYC with a thumping snow 2-3" per hour for a couple hours, followed by sleet and no major icing. Was probably my best call ever, and has made it clear that the hi-res short term models are the ones to use at the right time

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Yes, the RAP an HRRR were very accurate with their thumping. That is what I based most of my forecast for early last night. I called for 3-5" for NENJ/NYC with a thumping snow 2-3" per hour for a couple hours, followed by sleet and no major icing. Was probably my best call ever, and has made it clear that the hi-res short term models are the ones to use at the right time

Yea I thought the HRRR was amazing, it even had that 50dbz echo on it which i didnt beilve and thought it was a feedback issue before it formed.

 

I think the NAM did well with the low level cold air however

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2.7" of snow and 0.30" of ice reported in Bridgewater, and that was only as of 10 am. 0.50" of ice reported in Metuchen. One of the bus stops at Rutgers is closed off because of downed trees, and there are power outages being reported in the area. In my yard one of the trees is sagging very low. Must be pretty treacherous up there!

Sent from my iPhone

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Yea I thought the HRRR was amazing, it even had that 50dbz echo on it which i didnt beilve and thought it was a feedback issue before it formed.

 

I think the NAM did well with the low level cold air however

 

The HRRR has been dead on with every single storm so far this winter. An amazing improvement and the model has become very reliable in the near term.

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Nasty rain here. Underperformed here based on models. Very very little real snow here

I thought it performed just fine here. 2.5 inches of slop then rain. Even the freezing rain ran off mostly which is to be expected around here. Tree limbs had about 1/10 of an inch of ice accretion on then earlier.

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And I slept through it all because my company wasn't officially announced to be closed today until 5am. I knew they'd close, should have just stayed up for it, damn it.

 

Does anyone have pics or better yet video from around that time of the night? Don't care from what region it comes from give me something lol.

 

Here's a short video that I took

 

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Here's a short video that I took

 

Thank you!!!! I at least can get a taste from seeing that. New Providence is a very nice town. I lived in Madison for the 2000-01 winter and I was in that area sometimes back then. I actually will be in New Providence Friday afternoon. An old co-worker of mine suddenly passed away a few days ago sadly and his memorial service is at St. Andrews church.

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The sludge puddle situation in midtown has improved markedly.  This morning, intersections were virtually impassible on foot without submerging one's feet into 1-2ft of water.

And with the potholes formed by the wild temp swings this winter you might want to add another 1-2 feet depending where you step. lol 

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Rare FAA snowfall report out of Teterboro was at 6.5...quite the gradient from Newark up to the NY state border. 

That seems real high. Lodi reported 4.4 and that's basically across the street from Teterboro. I have 4 here probably. I could have measured wrong. Perhaps JSantana who is also in my town has a more reliable measurement.

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That seems real high. Lodi reported 4.4 and that's basically across the street from Teterboro. I have 4 here probably. I could have measured wrong. Perhaps JSantana who is also in my town has a more reliable measurement.

Yeah, it definitely does, but I think it has to do more with the 6 hour measuring technique. I had 4" at 5am before the transition to sleet, then measured 5" at 11 am and that was even after we had a few hours of very borderline freezing rain. So I tend to think it's pretty on the money given that I'm only 2 miles from the airport and I was pretty lazy with my measurements last night. lol 

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Yeah, it definitely does, but I think it has to do more with the 6 hour measuring technique. I had 4" at 5am before the transition to sleet, then measured 5" at 11 am and that was even after we had a few hours of very borderline freezing rain. So I tend to think it's pretty on the money given that I'm only 2 miles from the airport and I was pretty lazy with my measurements last night. lol 

That makes sense. Perhaps it is 5 inches. JSantana usually throws his Cliffside Park measurement up regularly. He is slacking today lol.

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