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February 4th-5th Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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Probably quite a few. I heard on the traffic reports that vehicles were having difficulty making it up hills, there were some spinouts, etc.

287/87 was a complete disaster on the westchester side of the TZ bridge this morning, numerous cars were stuck on the ramps from the cross westchester to the thruway southbound. Some areas that started as sleet, then saw hours of snow, then back to sleet, are in really bad shape.

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Classic south shore slop storm. what a mess. In and out of light drizzle. Home thermometer says 35. Again, not sure how accurate that is as I don't feel like standing outside with the handheld anemometer/thermometer at the moment. Either way, it is above freezing and the snowpack is liquid cement. 

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I don't see anyway this flips back to snow for a majority of the area.

 

Look how warm the mid and upper levels are

 

thck.gif?1391609029255

 

The two that matter the most are very close on that version of the map.  You should learn what the partial thicknesses mean and don't mean so that you can do better analysis.  Your handling of these maps has been atrocious.  Better yet, look at soundings.

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The two that matter the most are very close on that version of the map.  You should learn what the partial thicknesses mean and don't mean so that you can do better analysis.  Your handling of these maps has been atrocious.  Better yet, look at soundings.

See if you flip back to snow? It's not happening.

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Nasty rain here. Underperformed here based on models. Very very little real snow here

Not really. The cold air was marginal and there wasn't a lot of room to wetbulb down when snow began. We had no CAD high either to hold in cold air. The snow came in heavy right away but again, the airmass here was very marginal. The RGEM was actually better than I thought it would be, just N of NYC there were reports of 8" of snow/sleet, but it was maybe 20 miles too aggressively south with snow. The NAM and GFS didn't have much snow for us at the end either, and the HRRR backed off its too cold runs later on. It's good to follow climo in SWFE storms like these, which is usually 1-3" of slop then rain for the shore. These storms are almost never for us unless the cold/dry air is a lot deeper than today.

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Less than 10 miles to your north, we had 3 inches of snow/sleet with a little freezing rain on top of that.

Not really. The cold air was marginal and there wasn't a lot of room to wetbulb down when snow began. We had no CAD high either to hold in cold air. The snow came in heavy right away but again, the airmass here was very marginal. The RGEM was actually better than I thought it would be, just N of NYC there were reports of 8" of snow/sleet, but it was maybe 20 miles too aggressively south with snow. The NAM and GFS didn't have much snow for us at the end either, and the HRRR backed off its too cold runs later on. It's good to follow climo in SWFE storms like these, which is usually 1-3" of slop then rain for the shore. These storms are almost never for us unless the cold/dry air is a lot deeper than today.

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