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February 4th-5th Storm Observations


WeatherFox

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95+% frozen for the storm. Mikehobbyst, yes there was ice accretion but maybe now you will understand why your call was absurd. Yea we stayed mostly frozen but temps weren't in the mid and upper 20s with freezing rain so it wasn't too bad.

Anyway nice winter storm. Has sleet or freezing rain for many hours but didn't cripple MY area by any means. And it didn't wash my snow pack away.

Who are you talking to?

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95+% frozen for the storm. Mikehobbyst, yes there was ice accretion but maybe now you will understand why your call was absurd. Yea we stayed mostly frozen but temps weren't in the mid and upper 20s with freezing rain so it wasn't too bad.

Anyway nice winter storm. Has sleet or freezing rain for many hours but didn't cripple MY area by any means. And it didn't wash my snow pack away.

2.5" of snow and sleet here.

I was really worrying for a time last night when our temps rapidly dropped off, but they came back up and basically behaved as modeled. Had things been a couple of degrees colder at the surface, we likely would've had more problems for sure.

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95+% frozen for the storm. Mikehobbyst, yes there was ice accretion but maybe now you will understand why your call was absurd. Yea we stayed mostly frozen but temps weren't in the mid and upper 20s with freezing rain so it wasn't too bad.

Anyway nice winter storm. Has sleet or freezing rain for many hours but didn't cripple MY area by any means. And it didn't wash my snow pack away.

2.5" of snow and sleet here.

Ice storms have happened in the city and the island before as we all know but it is difficult. Hopefully this storm (though not over and not without impact) will be good learning lesson for all of us

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I was really worrying for a time last night when our temps rapidly dropped off, but they came back up and basically behaved as modeled. Had things been a couple of degrees colder at the surface, we likely would've had more problems for sure.

Yup but temps were modeled fairly well (a couple degrees too high by the globals). The short range high res models handled the temps decently except the HRRR. The nam temps were good.

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Great post/analysis by Craig Allen, linked below, highlighting that the warm-up is over and colder air is filtering back in, which will likely keep most folks north of maybe a Trenton to Perth Amboy line in the freezing rain/sleet for the next few hours. Just went outside and it's still freezing rain here (no more sleet right now) and 30F with about 0.25" of ice accreted on trees/branches - and a friend of ours just posted pics of a power line down and on fire here in front of their house in Metuchen. Yikes!  It's pretty bad out there with 84 closed between PA and CT, several hundred thousand without power in our region, NE corridor trains suspended, and tons of accidents.  Back edge of the precip should get here in the early afternoon. 

https://www.facebook.com/?ref=tn_tnmn#!/permalink.php?story_fbid=10152193793942720&id=230609267719

 

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Great post/analysis by Craig Allen, linked below, highlighting that the warm-up is over and colder air is filtering back in, which will likely keep most folks north of maybe a Trenton to Perth Amboy line in the freezing rain/sleet for the next few hours. Just went outside and it's still freezing rain here (no more sleet right now) and 30F with about 0.25" of ice accreted on trees/branches - and a friend of ours just posted pics of a power line down and on fire here in front of their house in Metuchen. Yikes!  It's pretty bad out there with 84 closed between PA and CT, several hundred thousand without power in our region, NE corridor trains suspended, and tons of accidents.  Back edge of the precip should get here in the early afternoon. 

https://www.facebook.com/?ref=tn_tnmn#!/permalink.php?story_fbid=10152193793942720&id=230609267719

 

 

I think temps should hold pretty steady to where they are now/around freezing..not drop back..Remember freezing rain leads to gradual warming of surface temps with latent heat release too.

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and NJ Transit NE corridor shut down?  Mayor DeBlasio urged commuters to use mass transit earlier this morning.  I knew that was a bad statement.

Not sure if it is shut down completely. Dropped someone off in Metuchen at 845 and he made it in to NYC a little bit ago, so maybe it only applies to trains further south near Trenton?

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