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Feb 5th SWFE Observation Thread


dryslot

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Finished better than I'd hoped while watching the tiny flakes trying to accumulate yesterday morning.  After the 5:1 cornmeal start, the ratio averaged 18:1, and the 4" that came 2-5 PM might've melted out at 25:1 if I'd taken a core.  Snow stake at 24" this morning, down an inch from 9 last night (only a dusting overnight) and tallest since the end of the April Fools' storm in 2011.  The 8.4" total just ticked over GYX's 4-8" prediction (they raised it to 6-10" during the storm) but the 0.51" LE seemed right on the forecast.

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Picked up a Solid 0.25" again After I went to bed at 1:30am!  Nickle and Dimed my way to 7.5".  Below my 8 but Ray's 6" was WRONG!  The models have nothing for us and he got a foot so before I get mad I'll look outside at this beauty and sled for 10 minutes Again before I have to leave.  Got some Epic sledding in yesterday.  Was Amazing.  Got good video for you guys Plus the one where I'm PLAYING Accordion while Sledding.  

 

Jim Cantore favored it!  

 

50" on the Season on the Nose.  

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Didn't it only have one run that really burp'd high on qpf for cne ..or was it 0z (34hrs ago) run w over 1" qpf as well

 

 

It over-did the precip in CNE on the northern flank of the heavy stuff even if you use the slightly less amped runs. Esp in NH...they kind of got sucker holed. Far S NH did fine.

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I must say one MET that stood out to me on this "SWFE" was Ryan.

Ryan nailed the higher snowfall potential for CT due to the (not only higher QPF that everyone hit on) but the fact warming would not get as far north in ct thanks to the primary dying in W PA as oppose to central NY state

There may have been other met comments on this but i saw ryans

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Picked up a Solid 0.25" again After I went to bed at 1:30am!  Nickle and Dimed my way to 7.5".  Below my 8 but Ray's 6" was WRONG!  The models have nothing for us and he got a foot so before I get mad I'll look outside at this beauty and sled for 10 minutes Again before I have to leave.  Got some Epic sledding in yesterday.  Was Amazing.  Got good video for you guys Plus the one where I'm PLAYING Accordion while Sledding.  

 

Jim Cantore favored it!  

 

50" on the Season on the Nose.  

Closer than your 10-14"!

How is the 1' looking?

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It over-did the precip in CNE on the northern flank of the heavy stuff even if you use the slightly less amped runs. Esp in NH...they kind of got sucker holed. Far S NH did fine.

 

It's a good example of why we always caution people on hugging the QPF totals.

 

Pretty early on we were discussing the more intense frontogenesis that seemed to be favoring the VT/NH/MA border areas. The SPC mesoanalysis shows this pretty clearly during the day (at 700 mb). It's also pretty natural to have subsidence on the cool side of this.

 

post-44-0-00314200-1391761648_thumb.gif

 

Where parts of NH really got screwed was when the 850 fgen really took off over SNE.

 

post-44-0-63992900-1391762147_thumb.gif

 

The 700 mb fgen was mainly due to lingering deformation from the opening wave at that level. So it shifted N rather than remaining relatively stationary. So they in essence got skipped.

 

post-44-0-53155800-1391762212_thumb.png

 

You can see how southern NH got hit hard, as well as the Whites into the foothills of ME by that 700 mb fgen/deformation band that remain fairly steady state through the afternoon and into the evening.

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By paying attention to those forcing features, you can more confidently ascertain where the heaviest QPF should be.  It's rarely as uniform as guidance would otherwise suggest.

 

The surprise was really that lingering deformation to the flow that aided in the band aligning with the 700 mb fgen right up the international border.

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