Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I see you are in Ithaca....the map shows 10-12" there I believe Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also shows precip ending as light snow (which rarely works out) at hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Power outages may be a real possibility come Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Primary gets to northern WV and transfers east of Deleware. Tracks SE of Montauk...and then SE of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So snowgoose69 in your honest opinion to do you think Western Nassau county like a 1/2 mile south of the lie ever goes over to plain rain and temp goes above 32.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks! You see a 12+..all snow. Temps in the mid 20s throughout. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So snowgoose69 in your honest opinion to do you think Western Nassau county like a 1/2 mile south of the lie ever goes over to plain rain and temp goes above 32.. It's 50/50 but now every model except the 4km nam shows us above freezing at 850mb and the surface. 850s are a given tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So snowgoose69 in your honest opinion to do you think Western Nassau county like a 1/2 mile south of the lie ever goes over to plain rain and temp goes above 32.. Perhaps at the very end after 15Z but I'm still uncertain about what happens between 04z-10z, if we get somehow get 5-7 inches of snow or we get 1-2 hours of snow then 5 hours of sleet...history argues against long duration sleet events here unless you have a coastal low close by which we do after 12Z but not before that, its rare to see long duration sleet here in WAA ahead of system even if the thermal profile is dangerously close to being over 0C in a layer...generally in this region if the sounding is a borderline sleet/snow sounding we tend to verify on the snow side most of the time but the WAA is so damn strong in this thing I'm not so sure it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 These are the highest temps on the 4k NAM , Temps in MC and Long Island drop back to 32 the very next hour . Extreme Suffolk county stays around 34 , but its 0C on Long Island on west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 These are the highest temps on the 4k NAM , Temps in MC and Long Island drop back to 32 the very next hour . Extreme Suffolk county stays around 34 , but its 0C on Long Island on west So whaddaya think PB, can we pull off a mostly snow to sleet with minimal ZR? I hate ice with a purple passion...WWOR ( I don't like the station but caught the weather this morning ) says 1-3 then rain...6 in the northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So whaddaya think PB, can we pull off a mostly snow to sleet with minimal ZR? I hate ice with a purple passion...WWOR ( I don't like the station but caught the weather this morning ) says 1-3 then rain...6 in the northern areas. I think there`s rain in MC after 2- 4 , I don't see a deep layer of Cold air on the Coast . Plus 4 air at 850 with the surface at 0 smells more wet than white to me in the end . Temps prob find there way to 33- 34 S of 78 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Large and in Charge http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ I did not see a mention of any comma head with this system -but it sure looks like it has that potential- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any info on the 6z models? Are they warmer than 0z or colder or the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think there`s rain in MC after 2- 4 , I don't see a deep layer of Cold air on the Coast . Plus 4 air at 850 with the surface at 0 smells more wet than white to me in the end . Temps prob find there way to 33- 34 S of 78 . Mt Holly says 3-5, Upton say 1-2. Both hedge bets in their discussions: I'm on the cusp of both stations. Mt Holly discussion notes they are putting the freezing rain front and center because if you don't, basically it's too late once it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any info on the 6z models? Are they warmer than 0z or colder or the same 6z GFS run at 12z ----7:00 am Wed Critical Thickness Estimate yellow is the 850 line http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Messy In a Dangerous WAY http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is the 6z NAM concerning to anyone? Wow is it warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is the 6z NAM concerning to anyone? Wow is it warm... WPC notes this MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 324 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014 VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DON'T APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TUE MORNING-WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE NO SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE NAM SINCE 00Z. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AT 500MB-SURFACE THROUGH WED BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. ONE OF THE MORE NOTED DIFFERENCES IS THAT THE NAM IS FASTER TO LIFT THE INITIAL LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY TUE EVENING AND FROM THERE TRACKS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING THAN THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is the 6z NAM concerning to anyone? Wow is it warm...no....its only marginally warmer....likely a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 WPC notes this MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 324 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014 VALID FEB 04/0000 UTC THRU FEB 07/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DON'T APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ...SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST TUE MORNING-WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE NO SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE NAM SINCE 00Z. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE INITIAL SURFACE SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AT 500MB-SURFACE THROUGH WED BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. ONE OF THE MORE NOTED DIFFERENCES IS THAT THE NAM IS FASTER TO LIFT THE INITIAL LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY TUE EVENING AND FROM THERE TRACKS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING THAN THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Thanks DM. Seems the time stamp takes into considerationt the 6z run. Just fearing the ice, ice baby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 no....its only marginally warmer....likely a hiccup. Verbatim, it's like no snow in NJ and none in NYC. At all. That said, looks like WPC tossed it...blending the GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Let's hope the warm look to the 0z models go back to a colder look at 12z.. not sure what the 6z gfs had but im assuming it was warm again like the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is the 6z NAM concerning to anyone? Wow is it warm... The NAM remains an outlier. A blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and RGEM would probably give a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 WWA here not much snow just some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another big story for coastal communities and Long Island is how after we go over to plain rain Wednesday the initial snow plus Mondays will soak up the rain and have a hard freeze at night into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How much snow did the 0z EURO actually give NNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Excellent morning discussion from Mt. Holly covering tomorrow and Sundays events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 WSW here for 6-10" and then 0.10" of ice. Not sure that's a likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 UPTON , PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND INITIALLY MOSTLYEVERYONE SHOULD START AS SNOW. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WARMER AIRALOFT WILL WORK IN WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAINFROM S TO N. THIS IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST ANDWHERE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL LIES. EVENTUALLY...SOME COASTALLOCATIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN...BUT TIMING OFALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.HAVE CONVERTED ALL WATCHES TO WARNINGS...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERNNASSAU AND SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN SUFFOLK. DO NOT THINK THECOMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA HERE...SOHAVE OPTED FOR AN ADVISORY. THESE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BEADJUSTED LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON THE 12Z MODEL SUITE. ACROSS THEINTERIOR...EXPECT 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OFICE. MOST OF NE NJ...NYC AND COASTAL CT WILL SEE BETWEEN 2 AND 8INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH...WITH UP TO 1/4 INCH OFICE. IT IS THIS COMBO THAT HAS PROMPTED THE WARNING...ALTHOUGHSOME AREAS WILL NOT REACH THE 6 INCH SNOWFALL IN 12 HOURS CRITERIA.LONG ISLAND WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES...AGAIN HIGHESTN...WITH UP TO 1/10 INCH OF ICE...MAINLY IN WESTERN LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For long Island is it better to be more west than east or North than South as far as maximizing snow potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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