TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But temps are pretty borderline to begin with near the coast..its not like we're low to mid 20s when precip breaks out There's nothing that really supports warming once precip starts. Warming aloft maybe, but surface winds are not supportive of warming the temps up like some models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But temps are pretty borderline to begin with near the coast..its not like we're low to mid 20s when precip breaks out Often the mid level warmth is underdone on models for these kind of events, but the surface cold is underdone. The mid-December storm was several degrees colder than the models had us for during the cold part of the event on NE wind. The temp spiked up like crazy when the wind shifted, but that won't happen this time with the coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 The more I think about it, the more this almost seems like the DEC 14th storm we had. A solid 4-6 of snow, freezing rain then some drizzle at the end. We never made it above 30 during that storm, despite the GFS getting us into the upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The more I think about it, the more this almost seems like the DEC 14th storm we had. A solid 4-6 of snow, freezing rain then some drizzle at the end. We never made it above 30 during that storm, despite the GFS getting us into the upper 40's. But there will def be more snow on the front end than that storm for areas NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 But there will def be more snow on the front end than that storm for areas NW True, especially farther north towards CNE. But for the metro area, I don't think it's that far off. Just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 When would this first flakes hit NYC/LI ? I'll take 1-2 or 2-4 as long as it transitions to frozen not liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 True, especially farther north towards CNE. But for the metro area, I don't think it's that far off. Just my opinion though. 12/14 did not have as good isentropic lift or dynamics on the leading edge of the WAA snows...Storm at Sea and Forky both pointed out for a couple days how the sim radar didnt appear impressive and indeed we struggled with rates into the afternoon...this time though the sim radar has looked great on the NAM...I am getting increasingly concerned about an early start time, again seeing the NAM be neck and neck with the GFS on start time and the RGEM advance it up 2 hours from the 12Z run raises caution...the top 5 CIPS analogs at 36 hours on the new NAM are 1/3/96, 2/11/94, 1/28/09, 02/19/00, and 02/23/08...impact guidance suggests the RGEM's snow cutoff matches well to the analogs but to me 2/11/94 is not a good match for this so it may be skewing things alot. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/impactguide.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&model=NAM212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yikes, the 00z NAM text outputs for a few select locals. MMU - 2.3" of snow - 0.48" of sleet and 0.52" ZR HPN - 2.2" of snow - 0.16" of sleet and 0.43" ZR SWF - 6.3" of snow, then around a tenth of an inch of ZR and IP . EWR - 1.2" of snow and then an alarming 0.90" of ZR LGA - 0.7" of snow and then 0.72" of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS clown map: http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_45HR.gif A lot friendlier than the NAM. Still putting out about 4" before a changeover for you NYC burbs folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is why monitoring dews and temps today will be crucial as far as ZR is concerned. I have no doubt we'll probably see a fast thumping of a few inches (pending any major shifts), but after is when it gets tricky. If dews are in the low 20s or colder, then that's a problem because the low is still going to be south of us, thus no ESE/SE winds responsible for rapid warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does anyone have proper access to the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does anyone have proper access to the EURO?I don't, but someone posted in the NE subforum that the storm ticked north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't, but someone posted in the NE subforum that the storm ticked north a bit. The euro actually gives the NYC area 8-10" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That snow map is absurd if you're using weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The euro actually gives the NYC area 8-10" of snowYou are joking right? . . If this is true. Im really out of words this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That snow map is absurd if you're using weatherbell It was spot on for yesterdays event in my area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You are joking right? . . If this is true. Im really out of words this winter. Yes, I'm using the weatherbell snowmap. It truly does give the NYC area/NENJ area 8-10" of snow with most areas between 8-9". I know the maps are sometimes exaggerated, but this past storm it showed 7-10" for us....and it delivered that exactly. So I assume there could be more issues this time with precip type/mixing, but we'll see. After all, it is the model that has been on to these storms above all others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At hr 36 knyc is 0c at 850. And it 30 degrees at the surface. LI is +1 to -1. Surface temps 32 to 33 degrees. Cnj is +5 at 850mb. 31 at the surface. NNJ +1-2 at 850 ..mid to upper 20s at the surface. NWNJ -1 to -2 at 850 and mid 20s at the surface. HV is and NWNJ all snow. Snow/Ice from nyc and nw. Elsewhere sleet/freezing rain in cnj and LI is borderline sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How is central NY looking on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hr 42 850s really warm. 0c line all the up in northern orange co. All NJ, nyc and LI above 0c. Snow is northern orange on north and ne. Ice for nyc and nnj as they hover around 31-32. Far northern nj 27-31. Rain for cnj and LI. . Cnj 33-35. LI 33-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How is central NY looking on the Euro? Where in CNY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How is central NY looking on the Euro? I see you are in Ithaca....the map shows 10-12" there I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where in CNY? Finger Lakes region/Ithaca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Max temps in CNJ show about 33 degrees @ 42 hrs and 34-35 hrs on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At hr 36 knyc is 0c at 850. And it 30 degrees at the surface. LI is +1 to -1. Sirface temps 32 to 33 degrees. Cnj is +5 at 850mb. 31 at the surface. NNJ +1-2 at 850 ..mid to upper 20s at the surface. NWNJ -1 to -2 at 850 snd mid 20s at the surface. HV is and NENJ all snow. Snow/Ice from nyc and nw. Else where sleet/freezing rain in cnj and LI is borderline sleet/rain. The Euro being that low on surface temps is scary considering it has a horrendous bias of being warm almost all the time...remember the 12/14 event it was as much as 10 degrees too warm 24-30 hours out...the MOS output tonight though really shows the GFS/NAM surface temps may be the ones that are out to lunch, FRG/ISP are colder on the MOS at many points during the storm than LGA/JFK are...thats an indicator the models are not seeing any oceanic warming whatsoever and they are basically spitting out the prototypical suburban/urban differences...in that case they are probably both running 5 degrees or so too cold overnight tomorrow and maybe 3 degrees too cold after 12Z in an event where the wind never goes E or ESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowgoose. Surface winds are ene at 36 and ne at 42. Just to let you know. Looks like a cold wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Anyone have a ECMWF update for the sunday system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The Euro being that low on surface temps is scary considering it has a horrendous bias of being warm almost all the time...remember the 12/14 event it was as much as 10 degrees too warm 24-30 hours out...the MOS output tonight though really shows the GFS/NAM surface temps may be the ones that are out to lunch, FRG/ISP are colder on the MOS at many points during the storm than LGA/JFK are...thats an indicator the models are not seeing any oceanic warming whatsoever and they are basically spitting out the prototypical suburban/urban differences...in that case they are probably both running 5 degrees or so too cold overnight tomorrow and maybe 3 degrees too cold after 12Z in an event where the wind never goes E or ESE I assume you mean the GFS/NAM might be running 5 degrees TOO WARM? (You said too cold, so I was a bit confused) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also guys fyi the euro shows light snow breaking out for most areas at hr 30 with temps in the 20s. So we def see some snow for all before hr 36 and the coast warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hr 42 850s really warm. 0c line all the up in northern orange co. All NJ, nyc and LI above 0c. Snow is northern orange on north and ne. Ice for nyc and nnj as they hover around 31-32. Far northern nj 27-31. Rain for cnj and LI. . Cnj 33-35. LI 33-35. By then its very possible the storm is more or less over, I think after 14-15Z which would be 39 hours we don't see a heck of a lot of precip, especially I-80 on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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