Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My map is different on stormvista, at 33hours the 850 line is way north of Philly In fact I don't think Philly sees any snow on the NAM, probably sleet to ZR fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hour 33 supports 4- 6 inches of snow from Philly to KNYC to MC 850`s Minus -2 AT Philly to MC to -4 at KNYC The surface is 28 - 30 . Where are you getting this from? Instant Weather Maps shows 0 snow and all ZR at PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What does it show for west Monmouth cty? Looks like rain. But lets see what the rest of the 0z suite shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where are you getting this from? Instant Weather Maps shows 0 snow and all ZR at PHL Yeah its not even close for Philly, the 850 is way north even at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 you need an inch of ice to get in trouble...the only time I saw that was in December 1973...January 1994 had a half inch ice storm in Brooklyn...1994 also had two other ice storms that became plain rain and melted the ice accumulations on power lines and trees... Do you drive on the roads on Long Island? Lol .25" of ice would be crippling if not prepared for. It took me 4 hours to go from Westbury to Kings Park the last storm and that was snow. 1" of ice would be an absolute horror show. Just the power issues in Nassau and Suffolk from downed wires would be horrible. On a side note I was in Oklahoma City for a training course for the last ice storm. By the time they had .5" of ice the city was completely impassable and wound up being shut down completely for 2 1/2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 In fact I don't think Philly sees any snow on the NAM, probably sleet to ZR fast Trenton is miuns 2 - you are 0 at 33 , maybe sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like rain. But lets see what the rest of the 0z suite shows We rain hr 36 plus 4 at 850 - we def go over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have an awfully bad feeling about this one. The city might be able to handle .25"-.50" ice but the suburbs where power lines are exposed is a different story.Asides for manhattan a lot of nyc metro is outdoor lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We rain hr 36 plus 4 at 850 - we def go over Surface looks like 33 throughout but tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where are you getting this from? Instant Weather Maps shows 0 snow and all ZR at PHL Fixed it , Trenton on N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Surface looks like 33 throughout but tough to tell. Plus 4 and 33 is Rain . That will do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do you drive on the roads on Long Island? Lol .25" of ice would be crippling if not prepared for. It took me 4 hours to go from Westbury to Kings Park the last storm and that was snow. 1" of ice would be an absolute horror show. Just the power issues in Nassau and Suffolk from downed wires would be horrible. On a side note I was in Oklahoma City for a training course for the last ice storm. By the time they had .5" of ice the city was completely impassable and wound up being shut down completely for 2 1/2 days. There's a big difference though between freezing rain at 22 degrees and at 31-32 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Will LI go back to snow to make up for the lost snowfall due to the changeover paul? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Will LI go back to snow to make up for the lost snowfall due to the changeover paul? Change back over ? Not on the NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Something important to watch over the course of tomorrow are dew points and of course temperatures. Both could be key to how things end up when the storm arrives in terms of any icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do you drive on the roads on Long Island? Lol .25" of ice would be crippling if not prepared for. It took me 4 hours to go from Westbury to Kings Park the last storm and that was snow. 1" of ice would be an absolute horror show. Just the power issues in Nassau and Suffolk from downed wires would be horrible. On a side note I was in Oklahoma City for a training course for the last ice storm. By the time they had .5" of ice the city was completely impassable and wound up being shut down completely for 2 1/2 days. I was driving in that same storm in Oklahoma and Texas it was the worst driving experance I ever had. Trees were dropping limbs as i was driving and in Amerillo I-40 was covered in 2" of solid ice. Cars were skidding all over the place. I drove from Milwaukee to Santa Fe in winter never again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM firewx nest shows the 850mb temperatures increasing with WAA and then falling back south 50 miles or more due to dynamic cooling. Something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Surface looks like 33 throughout but tough to tell. Again though the model does not see the initial evaporative cooling from the snow to start...with a 32/23 spread it could drop quickly down into the upper 20s and then be a b**ch to get that temp up on a NE wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4knam shows LI staying below freezing at the surface until hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM appears to be a warm outlier. The RGEM has snow prior to a changeover for the greater NYC area. The ECMWF and GFS are both colder. While I don't believe the NAM can be outright dismissed, I suspect odds favor more snowfall than what the NAM is depicting. The 0z RGEM, GFS and ECMWF will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM firewx nest shows the 850mb temperatures increasing with WAA and then falling back south 50 miles or more due to dynamic cooling. Something to consider. Hour 33 , But does it gun it N at 36 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the snow comes in like a wall, which seems how it will be now, there could be a quick 4 or 5" everywhere before changing over, like what happened in SWFEs like 2/22/08 and 12/14/03. If it's patchy and scattered, it might struggle to make it to a couple of inches before changing over. The intensity of the snow can keep the warm air at bay for a time, and obviously accumulate faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM firewx nest shows the 850mb temperatures increasing with WAA and then falling back south 50 miles or more due to dynamic cooling. Something to consider. The only time I have seen that occur with the 850 line doing that as the transfer occurs was with the 12/5/03 storm during that initial WAA snow wave...the re-analysis on PSU ewall actually shows it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hour 33 , But does it gun it N at 36 ? At 36 hours, but the simulated radar shows the heaviest synoptic precipitation is over then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the snow comes in like a wall, which seems how it will be now, there could be a quick 4 or 5" everywhere before changing over, like what happened in SWFEs like 2/22/08 and 12/14/03. If it's patchy and scattered, it might struggle to make it to a couple of inches before changing over. The intensity of the snow can keep the warm air at bay for a time, and obviously accumulate faster. I'm starting to see indications of that potentially early start time too, seeing the NAM have snow on the doorstep at 06Z worries me because the NAM tends to be the slowest model and it agrees closely on start time with the GFS, that could mean we may need to watch for a start time of 02-03Z...always a risk when you're slamming WAA over a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hour 33 , But does it gun it N at 36 ? Yes. 850s crash then rise again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The only time I have seen that occur with the 850 line doing that as the transfer occurs was with the 12/5/03 storm during that initial WAA snow wave...the re-analysis on PSU ewall actually shows it too. Check it out.. 30 hours 33 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Again though the model does not see the initial evaporative cooling from the snow to start...with a 32/23 spread it could drop quickly down into the upper 20s and then be a b**ch to get that temp up on a NE wind I don't see many of us making it above freezing really with a NE wind. The storm in December only torched because the winds turned ESE, and it was colder at the surface for longer than models had us even right up to the event. Places like Farmingdale and Islip even could see a good amount of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4knam shows LI staying below freezing at the surface until hr 39 Yeah, even when it goes it above freezing, it's 33 tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4km NAM probably has better handle on temp profiles right now then the nam (12km) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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