WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 does anyone know where this initial warm layer is ? It's not at 850mb or 925mb that's what I'm wondering....all levels below freezing I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wet snow starting here mixed with freezing rain. Props to Lee Goldberg who said future cast showing that it would start at 2:00 was wrong and it would really start at 1:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 for the hudson valley folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 that's what I'm wondering....all levels below freezing I thought Somewhere in between 850 and 925 I imagine. We've flipped to snow anyway from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 that's what I'm wondering....all levels below freezing I thought there's def a sneaky layer somewhere above 0c initially in a lot of areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It was literally all snow one minute then all rain another. Now it's sleeting again. Certainly a battle of some sort going on above. Coating on everything already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 for the hudson valley folks Yeah I just saw that as well. Should be a nice event up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 there's def a sneaky layer somewhere above 0c initially in a lot of areas Earlier NAM runs had the shallow warm layer around 750mb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It was literally all snow one minute then all rain another. Now it's sleeting again. Certainly a battle of some sort going on above. Coating on everything already. Somehwere in between 850 and 925 a battle is going on for sure and lighter intensities are probably a big culprit also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Earlier NAM runs had the shallow warm layer around 750mb.. Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Earlier NAM runs had the shallow warm layer around 750mb.. That is also very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Props to the guys watching Phl earlier its sleet fzr here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NJ...NYC/WRN LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 050544Z - 051045Z SUMMARY...MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA TOWARD WRN LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL EXCEED 0.10 INCHES PER HOUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF TRANSITORY WARM CONVEYOR IS FOCUSING ASCENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL EVOLVE SOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHL-JFK AND PORTIONS OF WRN LONG ISLAND. IT APPEARS IMMEDIATE COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY NJ SOUTH MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING SHOULD BE NOTED JUST INLAND AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SLEET WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS NRN NJ AND COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER ATTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Spc likes mikehobbyst lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 See that green line? It has started coming north. That's your 850mb temps I believe. The pink line labeled 0 is the 850 0C line. The green line is 1000-700mb partial thickness (just like it says in the legend). If that is moving north, it is due at this time to WAA above 850. If that doesn't happen, it won't rain or snow. FWIW, that line is not a good gage for r/s line. It is often well north of the r-s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 the radar shows blue but outside it's def a mix of snow and fz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The pink line labeled 0 is the 850 0C line. The green line is 1000-700mb partial thickness (just like it says in the legend). If that is moving north, it is due at this time to WAA above 850. If that doesn't happen, it won't rain or snow. FWIW, that line is not a good gage for r/s line. It is often well north of the r-s line. I am pretty sure that pink line is the surface freezing line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow here in NE NJ , fresh coating on everything. Temps dropping down to 29.4 F nd falling. Let the games begin boys. EDIT: down to 29.0 now , dropping steadily due to heavier echos moving in. DP of 26, lets see how far we make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am pretty sure that pink line is the surface freezing line?It is. Look at Kentucky where they're having freezing rain at the moment. The 0c isotherm is well south of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow here in NE NJ , fresh coating on everything. Temps dropping down to 29.4 F nd falling. Let the games begin boys. Where are you? It's sleeting here for me in NE NJ. Edit: After I wrote this, went out to check again and it's snow trying to take over now. Not snowing completely yet but snow is the dominant precipitation now. Literally changed over in 2mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The new HRRR does NOT budge the freezing line at all, any non-frozen precip is light drizzle when storm is over, frozen until 15z in NYC, damage has been done by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is. Look at Kentucky where they're having freezing rain at the moment. The 0c isotherm is well south of that area. Yeah, knew it was Here are what each of the other line represent 1000-500 mb (5400 m) 1000-700 mb (2840 m) 1000-850 mb (1300 m) 850-700 mb (1540 m) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The new HRRR does NOT budge the freezing line at all, any non-frozen precip is light drizzle when storm is over, frozen until 15z in NYC, damage has been done by thenDoes frozen precip include frza? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Where are you? It's sleeting here for me in NE NJ. Edit: After I wrote this, went out to check again and it's snow trying to take over now. Not snowing completely yet but snow is the dominant precipitation now. Literally changed over in 2mins. Im in Lodi. Howdy neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Does frozen precip include frza? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The new HRRR does NOT budge the freezing line at all, any non-frozen precip is light drizzle when storm is over, frozen until 15z in NYC, damage has been done by then Hate to ask a IMBY question but for this dangerous setup...what does it show for northern middlesex county? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hate to ask a IMBY question but for this dangerous setup...what does it show for northern middlesex county? Thanks Mostly ZR after your initial batch right now which is snow or sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mostly ZR after your initial batch right now which is snow or sleet Thanks. What a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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