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February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion


Sn0waddict

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It was literally all snow one minute then all rain another. Now it's sleeting again. Certainly a battle of some sort going on above. Coating on everything already.

Somehwere in between 850 and 925 a battle is going on for sure and lighter intensities are probably a big culprit also.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1144 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NJ...NYC/WRN LONG ISLAND

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 050544Z - 051045Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA

TOWARD WRN LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL

EXCEED 0.10 INCHES PER HOUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF TRANSITORY

WARM CONVEYOR IS FOCUSING ASCENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE NRN

MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY

DEVELOPING/SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND THERE IS INCREASING

CONFIDENCE THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL

EVOLVE SOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHL-JFK AND PORTIONS OF WRN

LONG ISLAND. IT APPEARS IMMEDIATE COASTAL MONMOUTH COUNTY NJ SOUTH

MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE THE

GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING SHOULD BE NOTED JUST INLAND AND

ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SLEET WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS NRN NJ AND

COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER

ATTM

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See that green line? It has started coming north. That's your 850mb temps I believe.

 

thck.gif?1391576530584

 

The pink line labeled 0 is the 850 0C line.  The green line is 1000-700mb partial thickness (just like it says in the legend).  If that is moving north, it is due at this time to WAA above 850.  If that doesn't happen, it won't rain or snow.  FWIW, that line is not a good gage for r/s line.  It is often well north of the r-s line.

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The pink line labeled 0 is the 850 0C line.  The green line is 1000-700mb partial thickness (just like it says in the legend).  If that is moving north, it is due at this time to WAA above 850.  If that doesn't happen, it won't rain or snow.  FWIW, that line is not a good gage for r/s line.  It is often well north of the r-s line.

I am pretty sure that pink line is the surface freezing line?

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Snow here in NE NJ , fresh coating on everything.

 

Temps dropping down to 29.4 F nd falling.

 

Let the games begin boys.

Where are you? It's sleeting here for me in NE NJ.

 

Edit: After I wrote this, went out to check again and it's snow trying to take over now. Not snowing completely yet but snow is the dominant precipitation now. Literally changed over in 2mins.

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The new HRRR does NOT budge the freezing line at all, any non-frozen precip is light drizzle when storm is over, frozen until 15z in NYC, damage has been done by then

Hate to ask a IMBY question but for this dangerous setup...what does it show for northern middlesex county? Thanks

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