earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 you forgot NYC and Long Island, the models are showing significant ZR for us too. Looks like .50-.75 ZR after the initial snow and sleet period. We look to have ice storm warning criteria... Please show me otherwise.... I am not doubting what the models are showing. But I want to see where the coastal front sets up first. In addition, in order to get ice accretion you want to see temperatures dip below 31-32 F...the more you teeter on that boundary the less serious of a situation it becomes. Freezing rain is a really finicky thing. You could technically have ZR falling for 6 hours but have not an ounce of issue other than a glaze on cold surfaces due to a variety of reasons including wind, precipitation intensity, temperature, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am not doubting what the models are showing. But I want to see where the coastal front sets up first. In addition, in order to get ice accretion you want to see temperatures dip below 31-32 F...the more you teeter on that boundary the less serious of a situation it becomes. Freezing rain is a really finicky thing. You could technically have ZR falling for 6 hours but have not an ounce of issue other than a glaze on cold surfaces due to a variety of reasons including wind, precipitation intensity, temperature, etc. Don't you see the real possibility of Massapequa, okay my area, but don't you see potential of .50-.75 ice accrural with temps stuck at 29-30. I see too many signs in the low levels and wind direction that this will happen and be serious... I am not hyping this guys... I think the south shore is going to get extremely bad ice storm conditions with 1/2 to 3/4 ice on everything. I don't see the coastal front an issue for plain rain ever making it here. NAM and RAP have serious ZR for all of LI except the very east end. I think this could be very serious potential. Teach and show me where I am over doing this.... I looked at the models... The long range seems to keep us below 32 through the last week of this month, so this looks like a complete nightmare month with no mild or even cool periods to look forward to.... I think we have 3-4 weeks of freeze and snow and mixed precip events to go... No let up.... I think this winter goes in the history books and will take until March or April to give up as the sun forces its eventual and very slow surrender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of the places that started as ZR in PA have gone over to either snow or sleet. I think we're fine here in Brooklyn but places just to our north may have a serious problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't you see the real possibility of Massapequa, okay my area, but don't you see potential of .50-.75 ice accrural with temps stuck at 29-30. I see too many signs in the low levels and wind direction that this will happen and be serious... I am not hyping this guys... No I don't. We'll see though. In most cases like this the cf makes it through the south shore after a small battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 still sitting at 29 degrees, should be at 32 by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of the places that started as ZR in PA have gone over to either snow or sleet. I think we're fine here in Brooklyn but places just to our north may have a serious problem. Models have been showing the upper levels initially cooling once the precip starts. A sleet/freezing rain combo quickly to snow or sleet is likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of the places that started as ZR in PA have gone over to either snow or sleet. I think we're fine here in Brooklyn but places just to our north may have a serious problem. Allentown is reporting heavy snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Weenie talk, but I dont know if I should stay up to risk the guarantee of NYC schools closing or should I go to sleep, I wanna see how much snow and ZR Deblasio has to deal with, we should wet bulb a degree or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 isn't the snow on the ground supposed to make temperatures colder than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Allentown is reporting heavy snow now Modeling ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 isn't the snow on the ground supposed to make temperatures colder than modeled? Some of the models account for snow on the ground, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 isn't the snow on the ground supposed to make temperatures colder than modeled? Initially at the surface maybe ..but it won't stop the WAA. The mid levels will rise at some point towards daybreak...and eventually the surface, especially towards the coast. It's really a toss up where the coastal front sets up. Anyone n or nw of nyc is most likely not going above freezing at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Allentown is reporting heavy snow now Yup which means the NAM has already busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yup which means the NAM has already busted. I rarely pay attention to the nam. I use it for surface temps in marginal situations. What did it show there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I rarely pay attention to the nam. I use it for surface temps in marginal situations. What did it show there? 0.0 precip as snow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Modeling ftw I am in Bethlehem and it is freezing rain...sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We should be seeing the snow start in the next 30min or so based on radar. Going to be a very interesting morning, hard to believe much snow will fall but we'll see. I expect to hear a lot of pinging when I wake up at 6am with a couple inches of snow possibly.... I'm sure surprises await us today in some way. Be safe everyone, I wish they would cancel work and school but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 0.0 precip as snow. Lol. Lol ok nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am in Bethlehem and it is freezing rain...sleet. Weenies will ignore this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 New Rap is back to 16mm of precip as snow for NYC, 5"-7". 14mm as ice. .55" And 0 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Weenies will ignore this post What does that mean exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LikeI said before a lot of the models have been showing the upper levels initially cooling once the precip starts so starting with freezing rain or sleet is likely but quickly going over to snow before the upper levels slowly warm again. I think this part was modeled quite well overall. The rest, who knows what happens especially SE of i95. The interior (nw of i95) is basically guaranteed all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Weenies will ignore this post Wrightstown PA, being rather far to the south, will see little significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I looked at isobars, wind vectors, and see no evidence of the coastal front making it any further north than the Ocean Parkway on the south shore... It won't get north of Sunrise Hwy, I can almost tell that w/ synoptic set up and damming signatures. Am I wrong here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What does that mean exactly? I think we are supposed to know what they were expecting in the Lehigh Valley of Pa and think "weenies" will ignore that as a sign of god knows what. I have no idea what the forecast in that area called for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I looked at isobars, wind vectors, and see no evidence of the coastal front making it any further north than the Ocean Parkway on the south shore... It won't get north of Sunrise Hwy, I can almost tell that w/ synoptic set up and damming signatures. Am I wrong here ? Who knows. The cf didn't set up around here yet. But idk what you are basing this off of with such confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 New Rap is back to 16mm of precip as snow for NYC, 5"-7". 14mm as ice. .55" And 0 rain. Wow that's nuts. That is a crazy encrusted snow pack. Anyone recall a snow pack that may be 12+ inches (counting what's on the ground from Monday) in depth encrusted by over .5 inches of ice? March 1993 the closest maybe (not the storm type obviously just the final accumulations). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow that's nuts. That is a crazy encrusted snow pack. Anyone recall a snow pack that may be 12+ inches (counting what's on the ground from Monday) in depth encrusted by over .5 inches of ice? March 1993 the closest maybe (not the storm type obviously just the final accumulations). Yes and it took 3 days to dig out....I used a garden spade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That hasn't been updated yet. Notice how the first hour is 18z. It takes awhile for the site to completely update the run. Thanks. Didn't catch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I looked at isobars, wind vectors, and see no evidence of the coastal front making it any further north than the Ocean Parkway on the south shore... It won't get north of Sunrise Hwy, I can almost tell that w/ synoptic set up and damming signatures. Am I wrong here ? Even if it does, as earthlight said that doesn't necessarily mean you get significant icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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