Sock Puppet Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Always seems like that for us with temps that refuse to drop below 32. My gut says the same for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I hope everyone realizes that they are likely going to flip to ice storm warnings as soon the precipitation either start as ZR or quickly flips to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Little IMBY, I know - But just noticing this... Currently sitting at 31.8º, up from 29º a little over an hour ago - Dewpoint at 28º ... Going to need the surface to crash a bit in order for the NAM to materialize.Surface will cool when the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Little IMBY, I know - But just noticing this... Currently sitting at 31.8º, up from 29º a little over an hour ago - Dewpoint at 28º ... Going to need the surface to crash a bit in order for the NAM to materialize. As the secondary develops it will flip the winds to the northeast and help lock in the low level cold air. Read Upton's AFD for some good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I hope everyone realizes that they are likely going to flip to ice storm warnings as soon the precipitation either start as ZR or quickly flips to it. Is that what they said? Right now the only ice storm warnings are in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I hope everyone stays safe and doesn't lose power. However as a weather geek, seeing the power of mother nature doing what she does is pretty spectacular. Stay safe all but enjoy what mother nature has in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory updated saying new data showed it to be colder. NYC surface temps to stay below freezing -- 5"+ snowfall for NYC followed by ice. Severe ice storm for some with up to 1" ice and widespread damage. Said he doesn't hype and this storm looks destined to be very serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Allentown is at our latitude that will tell us what goes through nyc They are ZR and started as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory updated saying new data showed it to be colder. NYC surface temps to stay below freezing -- 5"+ snowfall for NYC followed by ice. Severe ice storm for some with up to 1" ice and widespread damage. Said he doesn't hype and this storm looks destined to be very serious. when did he update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Every report from the Philly forum is freezing rain. Not one sighting of snow. The writing has been on the wall all day. Time to drop the WSW and put up Ice Storm Warnings. This shows that PA being freezing rain now means squat for many of us up here especially when we get into heavier precip. Lots of room to Wet Bulb is key. The NAM will bust horribly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What channel is NIck Gregory on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 when did he update? 10:50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Is that what they said? Right now the only ice storm warnings are in ohio It was mentioned in the Philly forum by a few mets. Those guys are tightly nit with the Mt. Holly mets. They also post on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This shows that PA being freezing rain now means squat for many of us up here. Lots of room to Wet Bulb is key. The NAM will bust horribly: What does wet bulbing have to do with this? We're not talking about cooling the surface. That will only help temps cool at the surface however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Will we see any snow south of rt 80. Or just start as frz rain? Harrisburg, reading, doylstown all started and are currently frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What channel is NIck Gregory on? Fox 5 NY. Channel 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Fox 5 NY. Channel 5Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory updated saying new data showed it to be colder. NYC surface temps to stay below freezing -- 5"+ snowfall for NYC followed by ice. Severe ice storm for some with up to 1" ice and widespread damage. Said he doesn't hype and this storm looks destined to be very serious. Yep saw that... Bank on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory updated saying new data showed it to be colder. NYC surface temps to stay below freezing -- 5"+ snowfall for NYC followed by ice. Severe ice storm for some with up to 1" ice and widespread damage. Said he doesn't hype and this storm looks destined to be very serious. 5"+ seems to really be overdoing it. I don't think there's a way we get 5" snow AND anywhere near 1" ice. The storm doesn't support 1.5-2" qpf, and the latest guidance seems to have gotten warmer (HRRR/RAP). I like Nick but I think that's overdoing it just a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Every report from the Philly forum is freezing rain. Not one sighting of snow. The writing has been on the wall all day. Time to drop the WSW and put up Ice Storm Warnings. What is happening in the Philadelphia area was modeled...south of a line from Harrisburg PA to Asbury Park New Jersey...not much snow will fall...north of that line...snowfall totals will increase dramatically. This is what they call a gradient...and latitude is the absolute key element in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 just make sure you people charge your cellphones and put gas in your car. Oh and dont forget the bread and milk of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What does wet bulbing have to do with this? We're not talking about cooling the surface. That will only help temps cool at the surface however. It's the ability to wet bulb in the mid-levels that matter. That's where the look is favorable for more snow than ice for us for a good while when we get into the heavier precip. RGEM had all the ice being reported in areas of PA pegged, means nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What is happening in the Philadelphia area was modeled...south of a line from Harrisburg PA to Asbury Park New Jersey...not much snow will fall...north of that line...snowfall totals will increase dramatically. This is what they call a gradient...and latitude is the absolute key element in this situation. Thank you exactly correct imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Allentown start as freezing rain is not the greatest of signs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I should be at 32 now but a weather station nearby is reading 29. Is the snow pack causing temperatures to be colder than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow line is collapsing near Allentown as the atmosphere wet bulbs. Look at Dual Pol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Allentown start as freezing rain is not the greatest of signs... Means nothing imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow line is collapsing near Allentown as the atmosphere wet bulbs. Look at Dual Pol. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think there will be a lot more sleet and ice pellets than people realize. Fortunately for us, sleet doesn't have nearly as high of an impact as freezing rain does. I'm not trying to take away from the ZR threat completely, but a lot of the short term models are now showing a prolonged period of IP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How far north does the freezing rain have to make it before we sound the alarms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.