February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion

[viking70]

Your fears are mine as well.... We could be in major trouble if the NAM is right. Let's hope more of that is snow.

I hope that the GFS which has shown more snow and less ice is correct.  28 degrees here now and temps are holding now that the clouds have moved in.  Dew Point 19.8.  

[Zir0b]

HRRR has trended warmer with bring the CF to Newark by tomorrow morning. 

What time in the morning? Think the morning commute might be salvaged if it keeps trending warmer? 

[NJWeather201]

Wow, the snow is coming in like a brick wall! Current temp of 30F here in NE NJ with a DP of 25.

 

Since the snow is coming in so solidly, temps should drop to around the DP once snow begins to fall. If winds stay favorable , I don't see all of NNJ getting out of the high 20s.

 

Not to alarm anyone , but this has devastation written all over it. Theres still loads of snow here weighing down trees and powerlines already....

[NJWeather201]

The snow still on the trees with added ice will make this our tree annihilator for the year

This.

[jm1220]

we're right in line with the 00z nam which shows steady temps a few degrees below freezing through the event

warmest hour:

I meant more for further east, you guys west of NYC are likely in for a nasty ice event.

 

My "gut" says I wake up tomorrow morning to an inch or two of additional slop and it be raining at 34 degrees, but honestly it could be doing just about anything by 6-7am where I am.

[+SNfreak21]

HRRR has trended warmer with bring the CF to Newark by tomorrow morning. 

The heaviest precip falls frozen until 14z, but precip is lighter when switchover occurs, the damage has been done verbatim

[IsentropicLift]

KLGA - 1.33" of ZR, almost comical

 

140205/0700Z   7  05006KT  30.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   87| 13|  0
140205/0800Z   8  05008KT  29.9F  SNPL    4:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.050    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.06   66| 34|  0
140205/0900Z   9  06010KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 0.15    0|  0|100
140205/1000Z  10  06011KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.107    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.21|| 0.26    0|  0|100
140205/1100Z  11  05010KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.161    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.38|| 0.42    0|  0|100
140205/1200Z  12  03011KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.198    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.58|| 0.62    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/1300Z  13  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.238    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.83|| 0.86    0|  0|100
140205/1400Z  14  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.180    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.02|| 1.04    0|  0|100
140205/1500Z  15  05014KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.093    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.12|| 1.13    0|  0|100
140205/1600Z  16  06013KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.15|| 1.16    0|  0|100
140205/1700Z  17  06012KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.19|| 1.19    0|  0|100
140205/1800Z  18  03006KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.115    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.31|| 1.31    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/1900Z  19  04004KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100
140205/2000Z  20  34006KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100
 

[IsentropicLift]

I'm hard pressed to find a station that doesn't have over an inch of ZR.

[David-LI]

KLGA - 1.33" of ZR, almost comical

 

140205/0700Z   7  05006KT  30.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   87| 13|  0

140205/0800Z   8  05008KT  29.9F  SNPL    4:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.050    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.06   66| 34|  0

140205/0900Z   9  06010KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 0.15    0|  0|100

140205/1000Z  10  06011KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.107    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.21|| 0.26    0|  0|100

140205/1100Z  11  05010KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.161    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.38|| 0.42    0|  0|100

140205/1200Z  12  03011KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.198    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.58|| 0.62    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/1300Z  13  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.238    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.83|| 0.86    0|  0|100

140205/1400Z  14  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.180    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.02|| 1.04    0|  0|100

140205/1500Z  15  05014KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.093    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.12|| 1.13    0|  0|100

140205/1600Z  16  06013KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.15|| 1.16    0|  0|100

140205/1700Z  17  06012KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.19|| 1.19    0|  0|100

140205/1800Z  18  03006KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.115    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.31|| 1.31    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/1900Z  19  04004KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100

140205/2000Z  20  34006KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100

 

is that one inch of freezing rain? are you serious?

[IsentropicLift]

can anyone share a good hrrr

 

is that one inch of freezing rain? are you serious?

It's 1.33" to be exact.

[TWCCraig]

I meant more for further east, you guys west of NYC are likely in for a nasty ice event.

 

My "gut" says I wake up tomorrow morning to an inch or two of additional slop and it be raining at 34 degrees, but honestly it could be doing just about anything by 6-7am where I am.

 

Yeah, it's quite warm here already at 31. RH is 85%, don't see much room to wet bulb.

[+SNfreak21]

Yeah, it's quite warm here already at 31. RH is 85%, don't see much room to wet bulb.

Dewpoint?

[IsentropicLift]

Oooooooooooohhhh, KISP only shows 0.56" of ZR. Child's play.

[TWCCraig]

Dewpoint?

 

26.8

[sferic]

zr for kjfk?

[jm1220]

KLGA - 1.33" of ZR, almost comical

 

140205/0700Z   7  05006KT  30.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   87| 13|  0

140205/0800Z   8  05008KT  29.9F  SNPL    4:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.050    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.06   66| 34|  0

140205/0900Z   9  06010KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 0.15    0|  0|100

140205/1000Z  10  06011KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.107    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.21|| 0.26    0|  0|100

140205/1100Z  11  05010KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.161    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.38|| 0.42    0|  0|100

140205/1200Z  12  03011KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.198    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.58|| 0.62    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/1300Z  13  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.238    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.83|| 0.86    0|  0|100

140205/1400Z  14  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.180    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.02|| 1.04    0|  0|100

140205/1500Z  15  05014KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.093    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.12|| 1.13    0|  0|100

140205/1600Z  16  06013KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.15|| 1.16    0|  0|100

140205/1700Z  17  06012KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.19|| 1.19    0|  0|100

140205/1800Z  18  03006KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.115    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.31|| 1.31    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/1900Z  19  04004KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100

140205/2000Z  20  34006KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100

 

That doesn't mean 1.3" of ice accretion though. Verbatim a lot of that would runoff at 31 degrees. More could actually accrete when the rain lets up.

[hazwoper]

Yanks outside area, but can u show KDYL?

TIA

[IsentropicLift]

That doesn't mean 1.3" of ice accretion though. Verbatim a lot of that would runoff at 31 degrees. More could actually accrete when the rain lets up.

If half of that didn't accrete you would still be screwed.

[Saturn510]

All freezing rain reports from the pa reports in philly forum.

[IsentropicLift]

Yanks outside area, but can u show KDYL?

TIA

Has to be at least a moderate sized station. That one doesn't work.

 

KFJK is 0.98" ZR.

[David-LI]

I am a few degrees colder than modeled that's for sure

[mob1]

All freezing rain reports from the pa reports in philly forum.

Snow/Sleet mix in Abington (sw of Trenton) I think we see some snow here.

[David-LI]

by the way, this weather station reports live right by my house temperature at 29 degrees. How come my avatar weather temp reads 32? Where does it get its weather info from?

[IsentropicLift]

Every report from the Philly forum is freezing rain. Not one sighting of snow. The writing has been on the wall all day. Time to drop the WSW and put up Ice Storm Warnings.

[yhbrooklyn]

I meant more for further east, you guys west of NYC are likely in for a nasty ice event.

My "gut" says I wake up tomorrow morning to an inch or two of additional slop and it be raining at 34 degrees, but honestly it could be doing just about anything by 6-7am where I am.

My gut says the same for me.

[NJWeather201]

KLGA - 1.33" of ZR, almost comical

 

140205/0700Z   7  05006KT  30.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   87| 13|  0

140205/0800Z   8  05008KT  29.9F  SNPL    4:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.050    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.06   66| 34|  0

140205/0900Z   9  06010KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.089    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 0.15    0|  0|100

140205/1000Z  10  06011KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.107    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.21|| 0.26    0|  0|100

140205/1100Z  11  05010KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.161    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.38|| 0.42    0|  0|100

140205/1200Z  12  03011KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.198    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.58|| 0.62    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/1300Z  13  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.238    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 0.83|| 0.86    0|  0|100

140205/1400Z  14  04015KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.180    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.02|| 1.04    0|  0|100

140205/1500Z  15  05014KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.093    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.12|| 1.13    0|  0|100

140205/1600Z  16  06013KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.15|| 1.16    0|  0|100

140205/1700Z  17  06012KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.19|| 1.19    0|  0|100

140205/1800Z  18  03006KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.115    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.31|| 1.31    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/1900Z  19  04004KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.016    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100

140205/2000Z  20  34006KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006    4:1|  0.3|| 0.04|| 1.33|| 1.33    0|  0|100

 

 

Not to be IMBY-esque but jeez, anywhere west of NYC in NNJ could SERIOUSLY be in for something historic if what these models have seemingly consensed towards. Really interested to see whether Ice Storm Warnings are hoisted once things get going.

 

Im at 30.1 and dropping. DP of 25, I say this area hovers between 27-29 F . We shall see..

[sferic]

Allentown is at our latitude that will tell us what goes through nyc

[WE GOT HIM]

Every report from the Philly forum is freezing rain. Not one sighting of snow. The writing has been on the wall all day. Time to drop the WSW and put up Ice Storm Warnings.

The models had them starting out as ice and zr though...lets watch as it moves north

[NJWeather201]

by the way, this weather station reports live right by my house temperature at 29 degrees. How come my avatar weather temp reads 32? Where does it get its weather info from?

I just noticed that as well. Who knows..

[mikemost]

For your viewing pleasure, 00z NAM

 

KMMU 1.33" Freezing rain.

 

140205/0600Z   6  03004KT  28.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    7:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140205/0700Z   7  06006KT  27.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    6:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0

140205/0800Z   8  05008KT  27.8F  SNPL    6:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.055    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.08   84| 16|  0

 

 

Little IMBY, I know - But just noticing this... Currently sitting at 31.8º, up from 29º a little over an hour ago - Dewpoint at 28º ... Going to need the surface to crash a bit in order for the NAM to materialize.