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February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion


Sn0waddict

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Nick Gregory just really dropped the panic hammer. Never seen him do that

With the temps creeping up around this area I'm not as worried as before-we're a lot closer to guidance than we were a few hours ago. However, any real glazing is going to cause a lot of problems. Just inland on Long Island could still have quite a bit of ice if models are right tonight. I'm thinking more and more the immediate coast sneaks up to 33 rather quickly.

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I don't ever recall this ominous of a situation before. The snow on the power lines and branches doesn't help things.

Uh Sandy for starters lol. The late October snowstorm was much more impactful then this will probably be.

 

The ice will be bad in some areas, but I don't really see many people getting more than .5+ of ice, which is where it gets really bad. The worst part is just the timing, considering it could be getting icy right during the morning commute.

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With the temps creeping up around this area I'm not as worried as before-we're a lot closer to guidance than we were a few hours ago. However, any real glazing is going to cause a lot of problems. Just inland on Long Island could still have quite a bit of ice if models are right tonight. I'm thinking more and more the immediate coast sneaks up to 33 rather quickly.

I honestly don't know what to think now. I thought we would see no snow. Now I'm think 1-3"+ for you and I. Then sleet...then climo kicks in with this swf(e) type event and we go to rain. Depends where the cf sets up. We will know by 5-8am.
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wow 00z nam has .4 inch of snow and sleet and 1.19 inches of freezing rain for HPN.  That is scary!  I am getting out my flashlights and emergency lamplight just in case.  This could be bad up here.  Surface temp never goes above freezing.  At this point amazingly I would actually prefer rain.  

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Uh Sandy for starters lol. The late October snowstorm was much more impactful then this will probably be.

 

The ice will be bad in some areas, but I don't really see many people getting more than .5+ of ice, which is where it gets really bad. The worst part is just the timing, considering it could be getting icy right during the morning commute.

This is relative to location. It could be devastating in wooded areas where large limbs fall and take down power lines.

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These next couple of hours are going to be really important as far as the icing situation goes (radar shows precip incoming quickly). We'll see how low we can wet bulb and then go from there. Those who get to around 27-28 are the ones who are going to have major issues.

 

It'll be tough going over so quickly because the development of the secondary may never allow winds to go E or ESE, so the surface cold gets locked in for several hours. 

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I honestly don't know what to think now. I thought we wpuld see no snow. Now I'm think 1-3"+ for you and I. Then sleet...then climo kicks in with this swf(e) type event and we go to rain. Depends where the cf sets up. We will know by 5-8am.

 

I was worried about the climo getting me on the snow, most SWFEs that have a high to the north start as snow, the ones that don't or have a stale airmass usually go SNPL then right over to rain...I bit mostly on the FZRA and PL potential on this but may end up wrong

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Uh Sandy for starters lol. The late October snowstorm was much more impactful then this will probably be.

 

The ice will be bad in some areas, but I don't really see many people getting more than .5+ of ice, which is where it gets really bad. The worst part is just the timing, considering it could be getting icy right during the morning commute.

Many of or weakest trees here were lost or pruned from Sandy's 75-90 mph ENE winds. Hopefully what remains will handle the ice.

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wow 00z nam has .4 inch of snow and sleet and 1.19 inches of freezing rain for HPN.  That is scary!  I am getting out my flashlights and emergency lamplight just in case.  This could be bad up here.  Surface temp never goes above freezing.  At this point amazingly I would actually prefer rain.

Your fears are mine as well.... We could be in major trouble if the NAM is right. Let's hope more of that is snow.

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With the temps creeping up around this area I'm not as worried as before-we're a lot closer to guidance than we were a few hours ago. However, any real glazing is going to cause a lot of problems. Just inland on Long Island could still have quite a bit of ice if models are right tonight. I'm thinking more and more the immediate coast sneaks up to 33 rather quickly.

we're right in line with the 00z nam which shows steady temps a few degrees below freezing through the event

warmest hour:

f12.gif

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me deblasio lives 10 block from me, trust me park slope will be clear of ice from the sanitation

this time i heard many plows when it was snowing..unlike the last storm where the only plow i heard was after the storm..i guess the mayor did not wan't to punish those upper east side folks again..

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For your viewing pleasure, 00z NAM

 

KMMU 1.33" Freezing rain.

 

140205/0600Z   6  03004KT  28.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    7:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/0700Z   7  06006KT  27.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    6:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
140205/0800Z   8  05008KT  27.8F  SNPL    6:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.055    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.08   84| 16|  0
140205/0900Z   9  06010KT  27.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.104    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.11|| 0.19    0|  0|100
140205/1000Z  10  06010KT  28.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.137    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.25|| 0.32    0|  0|100
140205/1100Z  11  05010KT  28.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.165    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.43|| 0.49    0|  0|100
140205/1200Z  12  03012KT  29.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.213    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.65|| 0.70    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/1300Z  13  04013KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.228    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 0.89|| 0.93    0|  0|100
140205/1400Z  14  05013KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.05|| 1.08    0|  0|100
140205/1500Z  15  06013KT  29.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.069    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.12|| 1.15    0|  0|100
140205/1600Z  16  06012KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.14|| 1.17    0|  0|100
140205/1700Z  17  06012KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.049    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.19|| 1.22    0|  0|100
140205/1800Z  18  05007KT  30.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.114    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.31|| 1.33    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/1900Z  19  VRB02KT  30.6F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.32|| 1.34    0|  0|100
140205/2000Z  20  34005KT  30.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    6:1|  0.5|| 0.02|| 1.33|| 1.35    0|  0|100
 

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KHPN - 1.19" ZR

 

140205/0800Z   8  07006KT  29.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
140205/0900Z   9  07011KT  28.8F  SNPL    3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.089    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.10   31| 69|  0
140205/1000Z  10  07012KT  29.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.109    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.11|| 0.21    0|  0|100
140205/1100Z  11  06011KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.28|| 0.37    0|  0|100
140205/1200Z  12  04010KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.163    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.45|| 0.53    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/1300Z  13  04013KT  29.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.238    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.70|| 0.77    0|  0|100
140205/1400Z  14  05013KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.176    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.88|| 0.94    0|  0|100
140205/1500Z  15  06013KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.080    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 0.97|| 1.02    0|  0|100
140205/1600Z  16  06013KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 1.00|| 1.06    0|  0|100
140205/1700Z  17  07012KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 1.02|| 1.07    0|  0|100
140205/1800Z  18  05010KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.079    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 1.10|| 1.15    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140205/1900Z  19  06007KT  31.4F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.074    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 1.18|| 1.22    0|  0|100
140205/2000Z  20  32003KT  31.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 1.18|| 1.23    0|  0|100
140205/2100Z  21  31008KT  31.7F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    3:1|  0.3|| 0.12|| 1.19|| 1.23    0|  0|100
 

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