WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Little to no icing? What are you basing that on! Just how I see it panning out....over the past several hours the models that have been very accurate as of late have been showing more of a thump of snow followed by mainly rain. Let's hope that is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory just really dropped the panic hammer. Never seen him do that I don't ever recall this ominous of a situation before. The snow on the power lines and branches doesn't help things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What exactly did he say? Devastating ice storm just west of metro area and higher snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's a good thing that most of the snow melted on the powerlines here at Mount Vernon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory just really dropped the panic hammer. Never seen him do that With the temps creeping up around this area I'm not as worried as before-we're a lot closer to guidance than we were a few hours ago. However, any real glazing is going to cause a lot of problems. Just inland on Long Island could still have quite a bit of ice if models are right tonight. I'm thinking more and more the immediate coast sneaks up to 33 rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's a good thing that most of the snow melted on the powerlines here at Mount Vernon.really? Weird still have a bit on them, the stuff dripping off today is frozen as icicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't ever recall this ominous of a situation before. The snow on the power lines and branches doesn't help things. Uh Sandy for starters lol. The late October snowstorm was much more impactful then this will probably be. The ice will be bad in some areas, but I don't really see many people getting more than .5+ of ice, which is where it gets really bad. The worst part is just the timing, considering it could be getting icy right during the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Devastating ice storm just west of metro area and higher snowfall totals Yea, and the others said how conservative he usually is and he said yea, so basically when I honk my horn I mean it..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Heavy ZR at 4am over mayor Deblasio's house, Heavy snow at NYC DOE headquarters in Manhattan, when they see that they have to close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 With the temps creeping up around this area I'm not as worried as before-we're a lot closer to guidance than we were a few hours ago. However, any real glazing is going to cause a lot of problems. Just inland on Long Island could still have quite a bit of ice if models are right tonight. I'm thinking more and more the immediate coast sneaks up to 33 rather quickly.I honestly don't know what to think now. I thought we would see no snow. Now I'm think 1-3"+ for you and I. Then sleet...then climo kicks in with this swf(e) type event and we go to rain. Depends where the cf sets up. We will know by 5-8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wow 00z nam has .4 inch of snow and sleet and 1.19 inches of freezing rain for HPN. That is scary! I am getting out my flashlights and emergency lamplight just in case. This could be bad up here. Surface temp never goes above freezing. At this point amazingly I would actually prefer rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 really? Weird still have a bit on them, the stuff dripping off today is frozen as icicles. It's just mainly small patches of snow on the power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Uh Sandy for starters lol. The late October snowstorm was much more impactful then this will probably be. The ice will be bad in some areas, but I don't really see many people getting more than .5+ of ice, which is where it gets really bad. The worst part is just the timing, considering it could be getting icy right during the morning commute. This is relative to location. It could be devastating in wooded areas where large limbs fall and take down power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 These next couple of hours are going to be really important as far as the icing situation goes (radar shows precip incoming quickly). We'll see how low we can wet bulb and then go from there. Those who get to around 27-28 are the ones who are going to have major issues. It'll be tough going over so quickly because the development of the secondary may never allow winds to go E or ESE, so the surface cold gets locked in for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I honestly don't know what to think now. I thought we wpuld see no snow. Now I'm think 1-3"+ for you and I. Then sleet...then climo kicks in with this swf(e) type event and we go to rain. Depends where the cf sets up. We will know by 5-8am. I was worried about the climo getting me on the snow, most SWFEs that have a high to the north start as snow, the ones that don't or have a stale airmass usually go SNPL then right over to rain...I bit mostly on the FZRA and PL potential on this but may end up wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Harrisburg which is roughly parallel to Philly just started as FZRAPL...we'll have to watch to see what ptypes TTN, RDG, ABE start as to give us an idea what will occur here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Uh Sandy for starters lol. The late October snowstorm was much more impactful then this will probably be. The ice will be bad in some areas, but I don't really see many people getting more than .5+ of ice, which is where it gets really bad. The worst part is just the timing, considering it could be getting icy right during the morning commute. Many of or weakest trees here were lost or pruned from Sandy's 75-90 mph ENE winds. Hopefully what remains will handle the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wow 00z nam has .4 inch of snow and sleet and 1.19 inches of freezing rain for HPN. That is scary! I am getting out my flashlights and emergency lamplight just in case. This could be bad up here. Surface temp never goes above freezing. At this point amazingly I would actually prefer rain. Your fears are mine as well.... We could be in major trouble if the NAM is right. Let's hope more of that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 With the temps creeping up around this area I'm not as worried as before-we're a lot closer to guidance than we were a few hours ago. However, any real glazing is going to cause a lot of problems. Just inland on Long Island could still have quite a bit of ice if models are right tonight. I'm thinking more and more the immediate coast sneaks up to 33 rather quickly.we're right in line with the 00z nam which shows steady temps a few degrees below freezing through the event warmest hour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Heavy ZR at 4am over mayor Deblasio's house, Heavy snow at NYC DOE headquarters in Manhattan, when they see that they have to close me deblasio lives 10 block from me, trust me park slope will be clear of ice from the sanitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is relative to location. It could be devastating in wooded areas where large limbs fall and take down power lines. I don't have any trees near the power lines, so I should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The snow still on the trees with added ice will make this our tree annihilator for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 me deblasio lives 10 block from me, trust me park slope will be clear of ice from the sanitation this time i heard many plows when it was snowing..unlike the last storm where the only plow i heard was after the storm..i guess the mayor did not wan't to punish those upper east side folks again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For your viewing pleasure, 00z NAM KMMU 1.33" Freezing rain. 140205/0600Z 6 03004KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/0700Z 7 06006KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0140205/0800Z 8 05008KT 27.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.055 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.08 84| 16| 0140205/0900Z 9 06010KT 27.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.104 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.11|| 0.19 0| 0|100140205/1000Z 10 06010KT 28.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.137 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.25|| 0.32 0| 0|100140205/1100Z 11 05010KT 28.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.165 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.43|| 0.49 0| 0|100140205/1200Z 12 03012KT 29.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.213 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.65|| 0.70 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1300Z 13 04013KT 28.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.228 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 0.89|| 0.93 0| 0|100140205/1400Z 14 05013KT 28.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.05|| 1.08 0| 0|100140205/1500Z 15 06013KT 29.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.069 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.12|| 1.15 0| 0|100140205/1600Z 16 06012KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.14|| 1.17 0| 0|100140205/1700Z 17 06012KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.049 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.19|| 1.22 0| 0|100140205/1800Z 18 05007KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.114 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.31|| 1.33 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1900Z 19 VRB02KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.009 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.32|| 1.34 0| 0|100140205/2000Z 20 34005KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 6:1| 0.5|| 0.02|| 1.33|| 1.35 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HRRR has trended warmer with bring the CF to Newark by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Go with the RGEM, its been spot on this winter with precip type forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HRRR has trended warmer with bring the CF to Newark by tomorrow morning. what does CF stands for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 what does CF stands for? Coastal Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 what does CF stands for? Coastal front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 KHPN - 1.19" ZR 140205/0800Z 8 07006KT 29.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0140205/0900Z 9 07011KT 28.8F SNPL 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.089 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.10 31| 69| 0140205/1000Z 10 07012KT 29.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.109 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.11|| 0.21 0| 0|100140205/1100Z 11 06011KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.28|| 0.37 0| 0|100140205/1200Z 12 04010KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.163 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.45|| 0.53 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1300Z 13 04013KT 29.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.25|| 0.238 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.70|| 0.77 0| 0|100140205/1400Z 14 05013KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.176 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.88|| 0.94 0| 0|100140205/1500Z 15 06013KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.080 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.97|| 1.02 0| 0|100140205/1600Z 16 06013KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.035 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 1.00|| 1.06 0| 0|100140205/1700Z 17 07012KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 1.02|| 1.07 0| 0|100140205/1800Z 18 05010KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.079 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 1.10|| 1.15 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1900Z 19 06007KT 31.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.074 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 1.18|| 1.22 0| 0|100140205/2000Z 20 32003KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 1.18|| 1.23 0| 0|100140205/2100Z 21 31008KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 3:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 1.19|| 1.23 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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