WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 gfs looks like it has more precip before 850s move north. The 850s also look to hold on longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 gfs looks like it has more precip before 850s move north. The 850s also look to hold on longer You have to look above 850 also, the warm nose is likely strongest at 750-800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS surges 850's after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 time for some sleep. setting alarm to jeb walk around 3AM. RGEM/GFS just made it clear there is gonna be some good times up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Benchmark icestorm on LI was 1/13/1978. That winter had a lot going on! Here's what that benchmark icestorm looked like in East Northport on the next day (1/14/1978). That is actually a Mimosa tree encased in 1" of ice. I have never seen anything like that since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 here's the full site for those of you who don't know http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You have to look above 850 also, the warm nose is likely strongest at 750-800mb. Yea deff i cant see that on insta tho, however more snow is looking to be more of a possibility now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The snow looks very much like it will come in as a wall. That should hopefully keep the warm push suppressed for a time before it comes in all-out, at which point we'll see where the sleet/freezing rain set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 here's the full site for those of you who don't know http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 gfs all snow through hr 12 for me after dropping near .75 of precip. nice trends tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The snow looks very much like it will come in as a wall. That should hopefully keep the warm push suppressed for a time before it comes in all-out, at which point we'll see where the sleet/freezing rain set up. Those of us that don't lose power, lol. Even just an inch or two of additional wet snow with some sleet then and then several hours of freezing rain on these wires and branches spells trouble, and regardless of if we turn to light rain at the end, still spells trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Corrected 00z NAM ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 New HRRR keeps NYC bellow 0 @ 850s and 700s untill 12z now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well if u buy the hrrr/gfs/rgem north of rt.78 gets good snows (3-4"+) we'll see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well if u buy the hrrr/gfs/rgem north of rt.78 gets good snows (3-4"+) we'll see..... more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 To be honest....here's my call for the storm : NYC/NE NJ/north shore Long Island : around 3-5" snow, extremely heavy from the start lasting barely a few hours and quickly turning to plain rain after a bit of sleet. Little to no icing ! NW NJ : 5-7" snow, extremely heavy from the start turning to a rather prolonged period of sleet, then plain rain. Little to no icing ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I find the colder solutions aloft to be too cold. Below is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 No way will NW NJ or even NE NJ see plain rain, maybe little drizzle towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 To be honest....here's my call for the storm : NYC/NE NJ/north shore Long Island : around 3-5" snow, extremely heavy from the start lasting barely a few hours and quickly turning to plain rain after a bit of sleet. Little to no icing ! NW NJ : 5-7" snow, extremely heavy from the start turning to a rather prolonged period of sleet, then plain rain. Little to no icing ! Little to no icing? What are you basing that on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakeNBake22z Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 My thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 My thoughts... Not bad. Tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 colder at the surface and warmer aloft is the general rule for these types of systems. i favor significant icing for the western metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 colder at the surface and warmer aloft is the general rule for these types of systems. i favor significant icing for the western metro area Agree. I think the initial burst will surprise a lot of people, with everyone calling for a "bust high" but then out of the blue the sleet/ice will take over quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 My thoughts... Thanks for breaking down coastal and southern sections...seems like we dont really have a forum cause phillys is dead and NYC metro affects way more people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 colder at the surface and warmer aloft is the general rule for these types of systems. i favor significant icing for the western metro area For once we completely agree on something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory just really dropped the panic hammer. Never seen him do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory just really dropped the panic hammer. Never seen him do that What exactly did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.