Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z RGEM rain in mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Careful - those maps are in MM, not CM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The RGEM shows rain towards the end of its run at the end of the storm. There's still a chance it's right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Careful - those maps are in MM, not CM. The rain is MM...the snow is liquid equivalent...but all snow ...I've been using them for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The RGEM shows rain towards the end of its run at the end of the storm. There's still a chance it's right though. For example the first green would indicate 0.3" to 0.4" of rain....7.5mm to 10mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0.5 to 0.75" liquid through 39 hours on the SREF and mostly snow. Changeover after that. Slightly south and colder compared to 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0.5 to 0.75" liquid through 39 hours on the SREF and mostly snow. Changeover after that. Slightly south and colder compared to 15z. Hour 39 on the 21z would be 7 AM Wednesday morning, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0.5 to 0.75" liquid through 39 hours on the SREF and mostly snow. Changeover after that. Slightly south and colder compared to 15z. Where`s that John 78 and on N ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still not too up on alot of snow, at least near the coast...soundings on all models show it maybe 1 to 2C from 0C and the WAA is nasty so its likely the models are underestimating it a bit, there is not a whole lot of room for evaporative cooling either in the mid-levels...it would not surprise me to see this go to sleet very fast...the one way to stop it would be for it to come down crazy right out of the gate and possibly mitigate the warming of that 800-880mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0.5 to 0.75" liquid through 39 hours on the SREF and mostly snow. Changeover after that. Slightly south and colder compared to 15z. You talking about KNYC or for most of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still not too up on alot of snow, at least near the coast...soundings on all models show it maybe 1 to 2C from 0C and the WAA is nasty so its likely the models are underestimating it a bit, there is not a whole lot of room for evaporative cooling either in the mid-levels...it would not surprise me to see this go to sleet very fast...the one way to stop it would be for it to come down crazy right out of the gate and possibly mitigate the warming of that 800-880mb layer. Being at the coast or at ABE will probably not mean much...this is more of a question of latitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm really close to 8-10" of snow on that map. High Point 10-14??? wow should have posted this one also NASTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sref's are a bit colder at the surface in terms of the freezing line, haven't looked at anything else yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 High Point 10-14??? wow should have posted this one also NASTY ice.png .15" of ice is better than .50" of ice. Although, it's still dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 High Point 10-14??? wow should have posted this one also NASTY ice.png this is looking like the icing we got in the 93 superstorm, the ice caked on the current and new snow will make removal very difficult if this is correct. it would be lethal out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 over .25" of ice for me. Not cool. Timing of this is overnight Tuesday into Wednesday if I'm reading correctly.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 over .25" of ice for me. Not cool. Timing of this is overnight Tuesday into Wednesday if I'm reading correctly.? tomorrow they'll be treating the roads a lot. I don't think it will be too severe on the main roads on LI but secondary roads most likely are going to be pretty slick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the models trend south does the icing trend south and the higher snow amounts too? guessing the icing would trend further south but the coast I would guess would get 3-5 inches before going over to taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 you need an inch of ice to get in trouble...the only time I saw that was in December 1973...January 1994 had a half inch ice storm in Brooklyn...1994 also had two other ice storms that became plain rain and melted the ice accumulations on power lines and trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 guessing the icing would trend further south but the coast I would guess would get 3-5 inches before going over to taint Was hoping that 10-14 swath to the NW could come southwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 OPC 48hr surface map....man, am I dizzy step back and take a good hard look at the big picture http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml 960mb LP backing into Greenland Weekend Log Jam??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php StormTotalSnowFcst.png Upton and Mt Holly apparently aren't on speaking terms DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton and Mt Holly apparently aren't on speaking terms DM. Uptons northern zones match up well with ALB southern zones... 10-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 21z SREF plumes are about 2-3" mean for all NYC reporting stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 21z SREF plumes are about 2-3" mean for all NYC reporting stations. How are the Sref's precip type scheme, because lookign on SV they keep me all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How are the Sref's precip type scheme, because lookign on SV they keep me all frozen. The PoP for snow/sleet/freezing rain has gone up the past few runs. But as far as plain snow, not very enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton and Mt Holly apparently aren't on speaking terms DM. BMTS You know what Mark ---ST from the accu threads thinks about this Have they ever???? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The PoP for snow/sleet/freezing rain has gone up the past few runs. But as far as plain snow, not very enthused. I'm just looking to not changeover to plain rain, would rather have some type of frozen even if it is ice. And on the mean P-type I dont change over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 you need an inch of ice to get in trouble...the only time I saw that was in December 1973...January 1994 had a half inch ice storm in Brooklyn...1994 also had two other ice storms that became plain rain and melted the ice accumulations on power lines and trees... Unc, those 94 ice storms were catastrophic on the roads. True we avoided mass power outages, but the roads were lethal and people died. It even prompted the NJ legislature to pass laws requiring that tow truck drivers render assistance even if the motorist can't pay. In NJ we are a highway; icing causes serious problems. I will say that they prep the roads much better now than in 94, which came after ten years of mild winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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