rossi Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFS seem to be colder How much and where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Local News And NYC School System is underestimating the ice threat! Kids have school! Parents will be driving, people will slip and cars will crash! This is serious and I personally would tell everyone to stay home! I hate our mayor and local news I agree, but the problem is that NYC rarely gets ice storms. However, since the ice and snow are during the rush hour, things could get very dicey and potentially dangerous if enough accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bklnwx1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 One word 1973 an increadable ice storm with +10 at 850 Yes; I remember this 1973 storm in Brooklyn. By far the thickest ice I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How much and where? Surface stays below 32 very close to the city. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_024_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAM @ 6 hours is a good bit colder at the surface than 18z at 12 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The HRRR only shows all snow for 2-3 hours, therefore those snow amounts are bogus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Surface stays below 32 very close to the city. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_024_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Looks too warm already at 0z. It's 30 in Belmar and 33 at Atlantic City right now. Down there they will be close to the surface low so I doubt any ice problems extend that far but they could up further north, maybe even Monmouth County for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks too warm already at 0z. It's 30 in Belmar and 33 at Atlantic City right now. Down there they will be close to the surface low so I doubt any ice problems extend that far but they could up further north, maybe even Monmouth County for a time. Its 27.5 here now , running in line with the 4knam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The HRRR only shows all snow for 2-3 hours, therefore those snow amounts are bogus The latest runs are now catching onto the idea of more PL and FZRA for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAM and the HRRR/RUC/RAP, etc. look about as far apart on snow totals as you can be... That said, my word on the frozen threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAM and the HRRR/RUC/RAP, etc. look about as far apart on snow totals as you can be... That said, my word on the frozen threat... It's clearly way overdone on the latest HRRR/RAP and they will be coming down soon for sure. I'd be stunned if I saw more than 3-4" of snow/sleet out of this. Central Park could see 5" before ZR/rain set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z NAM is even warmer aloft and colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not seeing how eastern suffolk warms so much with NE wind....just not seeing it. I could see warming being translated from the upper levels down, is it enough is the million dollar question I guess. Be that as it may, is eastern suffolk the first to go above 32f in that scenario? I would think a more uniform transition (if any) S to N not E to W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Question I know manhattan wont ice because of heating but what about the outer boro like queens and Brooklyn what is the think same as manhattan?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z NAM is even warmer aloft and colder at the surface. Whats up yank? You doing some PbP for the 0z GFS later? You ducked out for the 18z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not seeing how eastern suffolk warms so much with NE wind....just not seeing it. I could see warming being translated from the upper levels down, is it enough is the million dollar question I guess. Be that as it may, is eastern suffolk the first to go above 32f in that scenario? I would think a more uniform transition (if any) S to N not E to W There's a coastal front which should approach late in the storm, particularly out by you which should pivot winds more to easterly, which would raise surface temps a few degrees and maybe get it to 34 or so, but by then a lot of damage looks to be done, especially west of the WIlliam Floyd perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 No doubt the models are gonna be a bit too warm for this event so it's really nowcasting time! Hoping there's more sleet then ice... Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAM "snow" maps look the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's a coastal front which should approach late in the storm, particularly out by you which should pivot winds more to easterly, which would raise surface temps a few degrees and maybe get it to 34 or so, but by then a lot of damage looks to be done, especially west of the WIlliam Floyd perhaps. I've seen times where the CF was supposed to blast through only to remain at the shoreline......I hope that doesn't happen this time, but I have a bad feeling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12km NAM even picking up on the low level cold. Warmest frame is 12z. Temps collapse back as the CF retreats (never really makes it that far north to begin with). Given that this is the 12km not the 4km, this is a huge signal for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I sure hope based on the QPF it has that all of that is not freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That is a lot of sleet/freezing rain on the nam..over 1.25" of qpf by the time the surface gets to freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Jan 7th, 1994 You weren't born :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll gladly take 2-3 inches that is then frozen solid in preparation for whatever comes this weekend. I remember that great icestorm of January 1994 or 96, everything outside was crystalline in nature, awesome sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I've seen times where the CF was supposed to blast through only to remain at the shoreline......I hope that doesn't happen this time, but I have a bad feeling here. I wonder how the synoptics were here for VD 2007, which was a major icestorm right down to the beaches. I was in PA at the time and pelted by tons of sleet, but I remember the coastal redevelopment which was very close to the shore and there still was no changeover here until the very end to rain I was told. I know the preceding cold airmass was colder and there was more of a northerly component to the winds but I'm also getting a bad feeling about what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 101.1 calling for a high of 40 in the city tomorrow. What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll gladly take 2-3 inches that is then frozen solid in preparation for whatever comes this weekend. I remember that great icestorm of January 1994 or 96, everything outside was crystalline in nature, awesome sight. When you lose power and probably many trees that are still snowcovered, you most certainly won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll gladly take 2-3 inches that is then frozen solid in preparation for whatever comes this weekend. I remember that great icestorm of January 1994 or 96, everything outside was crystalline in nature, awesome sight. Beautiful pine enrobed in layers of crystalline ice, shimmering glissando notes played in tune with the rhythm of the falling rain, freezing......as we also will be as we pour hot water on us to shower since power could be out for days.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Nam is pretty scary, shows a ton of ZR as the surface is just as cold as 18z but it's even warmer aloft, meaning less sleet, more ZR. If we stay in the 20s, then we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I wonder how the synoptics were here for VD 2007, which was a major icestorm right down to the beaches. I was in PA at the time and pelted by tons of sleet, but I remember the coastal redevelopment which was very close to the shore and there still was no changeover here until the very end to rain I was told. I know the preceding cold airmass was colder and there was more of a northerly component to the winds but I'm also getting a bad feeling about what's coming. The surface cooling trend on models of late isn't very reassuring either, man I hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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