Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here's the HRRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Flash Flood Warning and Winter Storm warning in effect for Memphis. Don't think I've ever seen that before at the same time.. 2-4" of rain followed by freezing rain after midnight can do that to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here's the HRRR... hrrr_current_east.gif That snowfall band entering NE NJ and NYC at 10Z to 12Z could have snowfall rates over 2"/HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The hrrr is still dumping snow on my head at 8am.....that can't be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If the HRRR is in error it is because of the RAP which it is run from most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some areas are ending up better than models showed...Cincinatti looked like they'd be all FZRA and so far have been snow and now heavy sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What are the VVs on the models like the HRRR showing snow in areas that are supposed to be inundated aloft with warm air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Already a state of emergency in nj for tomorrow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why would you discount the HRRR and RAP when it nailed the past few storms, NYC got 8" yesterday when mets were downplaying it tremendously the night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Already a state of emergency in nj for tomorrow...... Already a state of emergency in nj for tomorrow...... source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 RGEM is and has been my goto model in precip type war storms....It nailed yesterday's event almost perfectly. 00z will be telling of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If the HRRR is in error it is because of the RAP which it is run from most likely. 23Z equally as interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 sorry to drift off topic but the HRRR runs off the RAP and the RAP uses the RUC snow accumulation variable. "Snow Accumulation: This field is calculated using a 10:1 ratio from the accumulated snow water equivalent. This ratio varies in reality, but the ratio used here was set at this constant value so that users will know the water equivalent exactly. The snow accumulation (through the snow liquid water equivalent) is explicitly forecast through the mixed-phase cloud microphysics in the model." source: http://ruc.noaa.gov/vartxt.html#Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 source? Gov just announced it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Those amounts may not be so shocking if the snow comes in like a wall and dumps crazy amounts over a few hours before transitioning to IP/ZR. This would only make the situation tomorrow even worse with a glaze on top of more snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 https://mobile.twitter.com/govchristie/status/430863719976157184?screen_name=govchristie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Those amounts may not be so shocking if the snow comes in like a wall and dumps crazy amounts over a few hours before transitioning to IP/ZR. This would only make the situation tomorrow even worse with a glaze on top of more snow cover. Sure, but not ONE longer range model saw it? Those amounts are insane. I just can't believe it. I want to. I just can't. I think sleet/ZR is in the mix for those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 23Z equally as interesting.. Oh sure 12-18 along 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The more concerning thing is the 4km NAM, at 1.33km resolution, showing temperatures in the upper 20's for the duration of the event anywhere west of NYC and north of Trentons latitude. Major Ice Storm Signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 237 people on here now...the excitement is building. I'm staying up until one hour after the snow arrives which I gather is 1AM Interesting to see given what is ahead of us if they close NYC schools "tonight" or wait until 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to NWS NYC graphic on how to measure ice accretion http://ow.ly/i/4uQlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The more concerning thing is the 4km NAM, at 1.33km resolution, showing temperatures in the upper 20's for the duration of the event anywhere west of NYC and north of Trentons latitude. It's very concerning especially with so much snow still on the trees and power lines, so it'll only add to the weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Local News And NYC School System is underestimating the ice threat! Kids have school! Parents will be driving, people will slip and cars will crash! This is serious and I personally would tell everyone to stay home! I hate our mayor and local news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Local News And NYC School System is underestimating the ice threat! Kids have school! Parents will be driving, people will slip and cars will crash! This is serious and I personally would tell everyone to stay home! I hate our mayor and local news It's almost impossible to get an ice storm in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Local News And NYC School System is underestimating the ice threat! Kids have school! Parents will be driving, people will slip and cars will crash! This is serious and I personally would tell everyone to stay home! I hate our mayor and local news Your probably in high school just like me hoping for Deblasio to close, lol I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's almost impossible to get an ice storm in NYC. One word 1973 an increadable ice storm with +10 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's almost impossible to get an ice storm in NYC. Jan 7th, 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFS seem to be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The funny thing is the worste part of the storm is smack in the middle of rush hour! Tomorrow morni is going to be a mess especially here where earlier we were thinking rain an now it's look to be ice with a tiny bit of rain at te end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The funny thing is the worste part of the storm is smack in the middle of rush hour! Tomorrow morni is going to be a mess especially here where earlier we were thinking rain an now it's look to be ice with a tiny bit of rain at te end We're in some cases 5-6 degrees colder than the NAM had us for now, and that was a ton of ice for most of the area. That should be very concerning, given there will be an offshore wind throughout the event. Maybe we'll luck out and have more sleet, but the potential for significant ZR is real and growing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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