HSNN4 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nick Gregory actually DID point out something to the effect that the icing problem is the main issue with this storm and mentioned power line issues, etc. At least one of the major mets has his priorities straight! Nick Gregory is one the the best in the city always has been for years, Jeff Smith deserves a look too, He is the work horse at 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm thinking this may be an algorithm issue..but the HRRR is really snowy. Yes I was saying...it is incredibly snowy ! But what I noticed in the last couple storms....is that in the runs leading up to the storm...temp issues aside...it would throw out amounts that were 4-6 inches higher than we received. It also shows our precip type switching over to sleet or freezing rain I believe at hour 15, so some of that accumulation (the last 2-3" might be from that). But, the RAP also supports this and keeps all levels below freezing up until hour 16 at least, and gives us 4-6" of snow also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm thinking this may be an algorithm issue..but the HRRR is really snowy. John does the HRRR suffer from algorithm issues to the extant some of the others do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't know if it was mentioned in this thread but the 18z 4km NAM is even snowier than the HRRR, showing 6-12" everywhere north of and including PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't know if it was mentioned in this thread but the 18z 4km NAM is even snowier than the HRRR, showing 6-12" everywhere north of and including PHL. Don't use weatherbell snow maps with a storm like this. It's wrong. It doesn't take mid level warmth into account at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't use weatherbell snow maps with a storm like this. It's wrong Got it off PSU e-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Got it off PSU e-wall Then all I can do is shake my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't know if it was mentioned in this thread but the 18z 4km NAM is even snowier than the HRRR, showing 6-12" everywhere north of and including PHL. I see zero snow in BUFKIT for ABE on the 4KM NAM. It looks the same as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm thinking this may be an algorithm issue..but the HRRR is really snowy. The 850s stay way south on the latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Got it off PSU e-wall Post it. I honestly didn't even know psu ewall had nam snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Post it. I honestly didn't even know psu ewall had nam snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ohhhh so that's where those maps come from. It's probably using a poor algorithm for a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow look at that MASSIVE band of snow from Indiana to Maine ! Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ohhhh so that's where those maps come from. It's probably using a poor algorithm for a storm like this. I agree, I was honestly shocked and had to check the timestamp to make sure it wasn't for yesterday's storm. It's almost as if it only factors in surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow look at that MASSIVE band of snow from Indiana to Maine ! Incredible It goes right through Ithaca. That would be close to 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think if the temps drop another couple of degrees here we could be in real trouble tomorrow with freezing rain. The clouds are still thin enough that we are radiating, and the thick snowcover is allowing us to get as cold as possible with the little wind we have. Looks also like the precip will hit real hard right away, so hopefully that's good for a few inches of snow in a couple of hours before the mid levels torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z nam firewx nest isn't very pretty, didn't see anyone post it. Precip shuts off 2 hrs after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How does the HRRR count sleet/ZR? This is remarkable if it's even close to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow look at that MASSIVE band of snow from Indiana to Maine ! Incredible Better yet, look at the snow it has across southern Mississippi and Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well guys....the HRRR is definitely wrong with it's snow amounts. Here's why.....in southern Indiana, it shows 18-24 inches of snow, and they are forecasted to receive just 2-6" and are now getting freezing rain. So, it must take it account even freezing rain along with sleet and count it as snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Back In Dec. We were slated for 1 to 2 in colts neck and we got 5. And that afternoon a Redbank guy threw up the 4k nam that showed 6 in MC and we dismissed it. Anythings possible. Although I would dismiss it again tonite considering at all the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well guys....the HRRR is definitely wrong with it's snow amounts. Here's why.....in southern Indiana, it shows 18-24 inches of snow, and they are forecasted to receive just 2-6" and are now getting freezing rain. So, it must take it account even freezing rain along with sleet and count it as snow ? Southern Indiana isn't even very snowy; Hardly anyone in Evansville even owns a snowblower. 18-24 inches would be catastrophic there; freezing rain is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well guys....the HRRR is definitely wrong with it's snow amounts. Here's why.....in southern Indiana, it shows 18-24 inches of snow, and they are forecasted to receive just 2-6" and are now getting freezing rain. So, it must take it account even freezing rain along with sleet and count it as snow ? That map giving us 12+ is the 4k Nam, not the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HRRR 850'S at 12Z and liquid equivalent through that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow look at that MASSIVE band of snow from Indiana to Maine ! Incredible That's the real snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That map giving us 12+ is the 4k Nam, not the HRRRI know. But the HRRR still gives us significant snow amounts on the order of 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Flash Flood Warning and Winter Storm warning in effect for Memphis. Don't think I've ever seen that before at the same time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I know. But the HRRR still gives us significant snow amounts on the order of 4-8" here is the HRRR at 15 hrs total snow - over 6 inches in the metro and still snowing http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014020422&plot_type=acsnw_sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The more concerning thing is the 4km NAM, at 1.33km resolution, showing temperatures in the upper 20's for the duration of the event anywhere west of NYC and north of Trentons latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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