Patrick-02540 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Images like this will be all over tomorrow. https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=NfunX9ZAfTM41M&tbnid=SrArMRTiWAMsYM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Foutofashes.tv%2Funcategorized%2Fice-meltdown%2F&ei=-27xUt7SOMKSyAGZwIGADg&bvm=bv.60444564,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNGNL-NkRmTWphjQmKPH0XoLShtWKw&ust=1391640607232260 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So where were the surface winds modeled to be from the south at this hour? The models had showed very light variable winds over the next few hours. It really means nothing. Winds will become E-NNE as time progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 False, we are in the lower 30's right now, some upper 20's http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=7&extents=37.422526,-79.650879,42.472097,-70.532227&density=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just want to note that I'm in Roslyn, not too far from LaGuardia and we're at 30 here. That temp is very high. If you look at all the stations around here, they're at either 30 or 31. The sensor is probably near a jet engine. lol I swear, some of those stations have the sensors in places where it's impossible to get accurate readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So where were the surface winds modeled to be from the south at this hour? CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 33 22 63 CALM 30.39R LAGUARDIA APRT MOCLDY 36 22 56 VRB6 30.37R WCI 31 KENNEDY INTL MOCLDY 31 21 66 S6 30.40R WCI 25 NEWARK/LIBERTY MOCLDY 33 22 63 S7 30.38R WCI 27 TETERBORO PTCLDY 33 21 61 SW5 30.37R WCI 29 $$ NYZ177-179-078>081-042300- LONG ISLAND NEW YORK CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS FARMINGDALE CLEAR 31 21 66 S7 30.39R WCI 24 ISLIP MOCLDY 32 22 66 S6 30.37R WCI 26 SHIRLEY CLOUDY 31 23 72 S6 30.40R WCI 25 When I was driving East on 95 this evening the steam from the stack at the Bridgeport power station was blowing right to left - due N out of the S. I was thinking the same thing, uh oh - here comes the warm upper level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 havent budged from 33.6 degrees - hopefully I stay above freezing until the precip starts.. dont want ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just want to note that I'm in Roslyn, not too far from LaGuardia and we're at 30 here. That temp is very high. If you look at all the stations around here, they're at either 30 or 31. It is 28 here. I was surprised how many stations are showing southerly winds as of 5PM. I don't expect any substantial flow from that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 South wind was modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dropped from 31.6 to 28.7 in Edison in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The HRRR is showing snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour before the changeover for all of NNJ/NYC. It does seem to overdo this often, however I think we could approach those rates before changing over, for a couple hours at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 29.3 Lynbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The HRRR is showing snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour before the changeover for all of NNJ/NYC Really? If that holds true, then the new forecast totals will definitely happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dropped from 31.6 to 28.7 in Edison in the last hour. There is now an obs thread made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There is now an obs thread made Thanks. It actually struck me as a rather fast drop which is why I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The HRRR is showing snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour before the changeover for all of NNJ/NYC. It does seem to overdo this often, however I think we could approach those rates before changing over, for a couple hours at times Up to 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Really? If that holds true, then the new forecast totals will definitely happen.It looks like around 5-7 am there are crazy dynamics at work and we SHOULD be all snow according to it's run. I think some of us could see our heaviest snow rates of the yea with huge flakes, although not for long, with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks like around 5-7 am there are crazy dynamics at work and we SHOULD be all snow according to it's run. I think some of us could see our heaviest snow rates of the yea with huge flakes, although not for long, with this storm Alright. I'm hoping that the transition will have extended sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I see plenty of 20s on wunderground.... Sitting at 29 imby, nws has 0.1-0.2 of ice tonight..We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks like around 5-7 am there are crazy dynamics at work and we SHOULD be all snow according to it's run. I think some of us could see our heaviest snow rates of the yea with huge flakes, although not for long, with this storm sneaky warm layer above 0C at 925mb according to that same model. and the precip type map is hard for me to decipher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Alright. I'm hoping that the transition will have extended sleet. It really surprised me that from around 4am until 7am, maybe 8...all levels are below freezing, so it shows it as snow. This is for anyone north of a line from, say, milford NJ to Elizabeth NJ. It seems to really hang on. Again, this is only on this model run though, so we'll see. Slight changes will mean huge changes with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 sneaky warm layer above 0C at 925mb according to that same model. and the precip type map is hard for me to decipher It looks like at 925mb, it stays below freezing until after hour 16, even for NYC. But by that time, the damage would have been done with 4-6" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 28.6 Lynbrook and dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am not seeing a lot of plain rain for Long Island once the temps rise above freezing. Less than a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am not seeing a lot of plain rain for Long Island once the temps rise above freezing. Less than a tenth of an inch. I think precip may shutoff earlier than models suggest, some show mod precip til 18-19z but it may end by 15Z and then just be drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think precip may shutoff earlier than models suggest, some show mod precip til 18-19z but it may end by 15Z and then just be drizzle Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think precip may shutoff earlier than models suggest, some show mod precip til 18-19z but it may end by 15Z and then just be drizzle Yeah. This is going to be mostly fzra/ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Louisville just reported 0.21 FZRA last hour.. SDF 050000 METAR 042356Z 07007KT 3SM FZRA BR OVC008 M01/M02 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG 007V012 SLP157 PLE06 4/003 P0021 60042 T10061017 10000 21011 56030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Louisville just reported 0.21 FZRA last hour.. SDF 050000 METAR 042356Z 07007KT 3SM FZRA BR OVC008 M01/M02 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG 007V012 SLP157 PLE06 4/003 P0021 60042 T10061017 10000 21011 56030 Last Hour? OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm thinking this may be an algorithm issue..but the HRRR is really snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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